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What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

climatecodered.org

161–170 of 257 posts

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#161

The heat spikes in the Arctic now so early on in the year and the jet stream which previously brought cold towards the Arctic now shifts the cold down in cold spikes and record cold fronts to north east and Europe. It seems we will no longer have an Arctic soon and the jet stream will be permanently shifted due to anthropogenic climate change. We had record heat in Southern California in early February and around the…

Are you saying that we should expect larger/stronger cold periods in Europe ?

The EU is saying that HDD (Heating Degree Days) is decreasing and it expects to further do so. [1]

[1]: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/heating-d...

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, you can look at the evidence presented and determine for yourself what conclusions you come to. It may be that you will determine that the evidence is for anthropogenic climate change. But then again, you might determine that the evidence is for natural processes and that anthropogenic climate change is extremely minor. It's up to you to decide how and what you will believe. [Afterthought edit]. Many years ago…

Maybe you don't have time to study a subject for 5+ years fulltime to become sufficiently qualified to read scientific papers and assess their results.

What if scientists regularly engage in falsifying and otherwise manipulating their results to fit their agenda? What if the very statistical methodology they follow is open to abuse? If we are to give wholesale acceptance to anyone who is an 'official scientist,' yet they could well be corrupt, how is that epistemically responsible?

Furthermore, why must we blindly accept the status quo when there are legitimate dissenters? The very nature of scientific advance is that it overturns the status quo. Your methodology would seem to undermine scientific progress.

Finally, it is said that the mark of a true expert is the ability to boil a complex subject down to the lay level. If the layman must study fulltime for 5+ years to understand climate science results, is the field perhaps not at the necessary level of expertise?

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#163
post #148

Assuming we need to worry about climate change in the short term, what are the best mitigations on individual level? What can a person do to prepare for climate change? Move somewhere less affected? Hoard money/resources?

Walk or bike to your workplace instead of taking the car. Use public transportation. Oh, sorry, I misread what you asked about. You don't want to do something against climate change, you just want to mitigate the effects on you. Best thing is to avoid all those people who will migrate because it doesn't rain anymore in their place so they have to starve because of bad harvests.

You don't want to do something against climate change, you just want to mitigate the effects on you.

I've might sounded selfish. Obviously reducing footprint is important, but there are several other factors one can't control. I'm interested in what is the best course of action if push comes to show.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#164

next the tundra melts and releases an insane amount of methane. we are so screwed.

It seems like we keep discovering new positive feedback loops for global warming. Less ice means less reflection. Warmer arctic means more methane from permafrost. Desertification means less carbon capture. There was a recent article in Scientific American about likely changes in cloud formation from AGW. Some clouds reflect sun (cooling), while others trap heat (warming). Guess which are likely to increase? I doubt…

Define screwed.

I’m not sure what I think about the “climate change” issue, but I maintain a reserve of skepticism towards proclamations of apocalyptic doom.

A) Humans, and all living things, are screwed from the get go. A guaranteed calamity awaits us all.

I think contributes to a lack of perspective that is not helpful, and possibley harmful. On a number of levels, personal and political.

B) The fact that climate change gets far more discussion and attention than the ongoing calamity of US military conduct is telling. It tells me that climate change, which is complex, and only ameliorated by levels of global cooperation never seen before, serves as a “boogie man” for the “politically aware.”

Organizing against the conduct of corporate war, as it operates globally, presents far more “low hanging fruit” for positive outcomes, at doable price levels.

Yet, there are no serious (meaning electable) politicians in the US who have an opposition to the crazy influence of corporate money. The military spending (and its corruption) is protected from scrutiny by seemingly insurmountable social structures.

Yet, achieving meaningful reductions in military activities, if not spending, is within the realm of imaginable. It is far more doable than the level of global cooperation that is required to reduce carbon emissions. But people who might be inclined to support collective efforts to clean up the corporate-military-political complex are demoralized.

The Republicans apparently pride themselves on taken the worst possible courses of action on challenging problems. They are working to undercut the science of climate change!

Frankly, I see global action on significant greenhouse gas reductions as impossible.

So, somehow, liberal minded folks have found a perfect subject to project their sense of hopeless futility in “global warming”, an almost intractable problem.

In the meantime, there are unexplored opportunities to improve our communities, and world, all around us.

If we, the US, could somehow turn the corner on the lunatic resistance to gun control, and then make some active progress on military misadventures, maybe Americans might think about giving up on meat.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Create a company that deals with some of the consequences. Before you do that though, I would urge you to spend some more time looking into what people are saying on both sides. I did and it made me realize that there is a certain kind of "climate alarmist" fraction of the environmental movement that's a far cry from the more balances actual views and that they, unfortunately, are boosted by the media quite a lot pro…

There really aren't 'both sides' to this. There's as much scientific controversy as there is over gravity or evolution. The deniers used to deny there was change ("it's cycles!"). Then they denied it was humans (it really is, attribution is getting good). They're denying it's bad ("CO2 is plant food!"); and once things get really in train, they'll be denying ever being warned by those mean old scientists.

Yes there really are and not just two but many.

Don't take my word for it, here are the latest numbers from the IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=29

I don't know about you but I see a range, a wide range.

It IS cycles, it's always been cycles historically and the climate is always changing.

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-6-1....

The discussion is not whether humans have an effect but how much. Again no certainty even closely resembling evolution.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-dizzying-science-of-climate-...

But you can take the same argument and turn it against the climate alarmist.

First, they said new york would be under water by now.

Then, they said the temperature was rising rapidly (but they had to adjust that claim down quite dramatically)

Then, they said the oceans are getting toxicated.

There is no clear consensus on this. We might or might not effect the climate more or less than we think.

But try and find any official number for how much humans affect the climate and you will be very dissapointed.

Science is not about certainty it's about testing hypothesis. The way climate scientist teste them is by using computer models. That's nowhere close to providing us with the scientific evidence and testability of gravity.

And evolution is a model, the best model we have to explain the evolution of species there is a lot of discussion inside of evolution.

Trying to close down any dissent or argument simply by saying there is nothing to discuss because science, is the most anti scientific thing you can do IMO.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The New York Magazine is not research. Want to know what the actual research says? Look at figure 10.1 on page 690 of the IPCC’s AR5 WG II report. As it shows, most of the studies on the total impact of climate change for increases between 2.6 and 4.8 °C, which is the range for the IPCC’s highest emissions scenario during the 21st century, result in estimates of the impact on welfare equivalent to a change between 0%…

An overly simplistic conclusion based on a pick-and-choose approach to the report. First let me quote from the summary just a few pages down: "In sum, estimates of the aggregate economic impact of climate change are relatively small but with a large downside risk. Estimates of the incremental damage per tonne of CO2 emitted vary by two orders of magnitude, with the assumed discount rate the main driver of the differe…

Uh, all of these things are happening already, and will continue to happen. The biggest causes of unnecessary misery in this world are political (which of course encompasses the physical environment.)

The questions are what the best course of action would be: for individuals, neighborhoods, states, continents.

We cannot escape the physical environment we live in, and to fantasize that somehow compiling a list of risks could lead to some dramatic action is not illuminating. Taking such talking points out of context is confusing.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#167
post #53

So it's going to get warmer, sea levels will rise. coastlines will move inland as sea levels rise. Typically colder areas will become more tropical. Other than displacing a large number of people who live on coastlines, what's the big deal? Insult me for my niavety if it makes you feel better, but I honestly don't know the answer.

How about the Syrian civil war? "global warming is said to have played a role in sparking the 2011 uprising. Severe drought plagued Syria from 2007-10, causing as many as 1.5 million people to migrate from the countryside into cities, exacerbating poverty and social unrest." http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/3/2/syrias-civil-... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War#Drought

A not unreasonable hypothesis. Yet the bulk of the destruction is the result of ghastly military actions, aimed at direct destruction of the society. To worry about the contribution of climate change is not pointless. Close to it though.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments criticizing evolution in favor of intelligent design will also be downvoted for the same reasons. The scientific consensus is that climate change is happening, and it's caused by us. The evidence in favor of the theory is overwhelming, so you'd have to publish a pretty substantial study, not a comment on an internet forum, if you would want to sensibly argue against anthropogenic climate change without being…

Which scientific consensus? The IPCC climate scientists with their models or the physicists, engineers, climate scientists and others who are raising the questions and the information that disputes these conclusions? There are many who don't dispute that climate change occurs, what they say is that anthropogenic effects are, at this time, unknown and that any anthropogenic causes are minor compared to the various oth…

I agree with your point that we should consider the evidence, and conclusions, presented to us as the work product of scientists. Especially as much of the information is shaped by innumerable cognitive biases.

However, I’m fascinated that someone could realistically doubt the “theory of evolution.” For one thing, it is very much an active area of research, with new discoveries all the time. (Reading about the epigenetic aspects of hereditary traits kind of blew my mind. It turns out that animals adaptions to specific environments can influence later generations.)

So how do consign a relatively young area of research, that is making concrete contributions to science as being akin to religious belief?

The specifics, and controversies, of evolutionary theory, and it’s scientific cousins, are quite complex, and it seems rather capricious to wave it all away as if it was some cartoon theory of reality.

My own, very limited, view of the weakness of evolution as a theory, is that it can seem like a “just so theory,” almost true by tautology.

But the mechanisms of natural selection, and hereditary transfer of traits are so well established that to dismiss the lot of it strikes me as irrational.

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#169

Fake news! I heard someone in the lift of my soul destroying corporate gig this morning talking about how great the electrolytes in her drink were... I think it's finally happening https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0387808/

Except, as many have pointed out before, Idiocracy was far more reasonable than what some countries are doing right now - even when the world was composed of nothing but idiots, they recognized they had a problem, found the smartest person in the world, and put them in charge of fixing the issue

Re: What is happening in the Arctic is now beyond words, so here are the pictures

#170
post #53

So it's going to get warmer, sea levels will rise. coastlines will move inland as sea levels rise. Typically colder areas will become more tropical. Other than displacing a large number of people who live on coastlines, what's the big deal? Insult me for my niavety if it makes you feel better, but I honestly don't know the answer.

>>Other than displacing a large number of people who live on coastlines, what's the big deal?

Those people won't peacefully move somewhere else. Especially in Europe as the middle east becomes literally unliveable and millions of people will start walking north to just survive another day - I can't imagine even the most tolerant european countries willingly accepting this, especially since it won't happen overnight, but over many decades, with more and more people flowing in. That is bound to cause huge amounts of unrest, possibly civil war/ or just war.

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