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Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

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Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#91
post #71

>Higher minimum wages are probably another cause. >After declining in inflation-adjusted terms from 1998 to 2007, minimum wages rose almost 11% in real terms between 2007 and 2016, Abraham and Kearney estimated. Firms may have outsourced jobs or spent more on automation to offset the higher costs of low-skilled labor. Is it just me, or is this a shockingly misleading paragraph? That minimum wages rose in real terms t…

[deleted]

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany has been called out many times for boosting trade by manipulating the Euro. They also have stronger unions which plays a roll. They also don't have millions of illegal immigrants with no federal labor protection driving wages down internally. https://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/05/26/trump-right...

> They also don't have millions of illegal immigrants with no federal labor protection driving wages down internally. Oh, bs. There's plenty plenty access to cheap labor (intra EU migration, external immigration, asylees with work permits). The minimum wage is low enough to not matter much in most cases.

I could go out right now and fill up a pickup truck with people willing to do a hard days work for less than minimum wage by driving a couple miles to the Home Depot where they hang out all day hoping for work. If I spoke Spanish well enough I could probably get some fairly skilled workers too who will work for a lot less than "standard wage".

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#93
There's a lot of challenges, automation, globalization, immigration, poor schooling, poor family life, discrimination, clueless human resource departments, unjust stigma from encounters with criminal justice system.

All these things are issues, part of the reason many people can't work.

With all that in mind, some (largish?) percentage of people not working are simply unemployable. As in, they won't be able to do a job. Or they will make more trouble than they will put out so are net negative to have employed and thus don't stay employed. I don't know what can be done about this, probably feed them and call it good. Not sure everyone is owed a job, at least the way the system is set up now.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#94
post #71

>Higher minimum wages are probably another cause. >After declining in inflation-adjusted terms from 1998 to 2007, minimum wages rose almost 11% in real terms between 2007 and 2016, Abraham and Kearney estimated. Firms may have outsourced jobs or spent more on automation to offset the higher costs of low-skilled labor. Is it just me, or is this a shockingly misleading paragraph? That minimum wages rose in real terms t…

Real terms means inflation adjusted. Nominal means just the rate ignoring inflation.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They also don't have millions of illegal immigrants with no federal labor protection driving wages down internally. Oh, bs. There's plenty plenty access to cheap labor (intra EU migration, external immigration, asylees with work permits). The minimum wage is low enough to not matter much in most cases.

I could go out right now and fill up a pickup truck with people willing to do a hard days work for less than minimum wage by driving a couple miles to the Home Depot where they hang out all day hoping for work. If I spoke Spanish well enough I could probably get some fairly skilled workers too who will work for a lot less than "standard wage".

So? That's not a US only problem. Nor is it particularly related to illegal immigration. In a lot of areas of Germany you could do similar, except with a bit less uniformity about which language skill are needed.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#96
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We see this all the time in tech, cannot find people is usually cannot find people with the skills and experience we want for the price we are willing to pay. This will always be true if you offer less than the current market rate which startups seems to think they are entitled to.

I saw an ad here a few days ago on HN for a "Lead ML Researcher" for $85-100k + 0.5-2%.

Exactly the point. And then people complain about labour shortages in ML.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#97
post #71

>Higher minimum wages are probably another cause. >After declining in inflation-adjusted terms from 1998 to 2007, minimum wages rose almost 11% in real terms between 2007 and 2016, Abraham and Kearney estimated. Firms may have outsourced jobs or spent more on automation to offset the higher costs of low-skilled labor. Is it just me, or is this a shockingly misleading paragraph? That minimum wages rose in real terms t…

I don’t think this is misleading; in economics parlance “real” terms means inflation adjusted. Perhaps you are thinking of “nominal” terms, which would not be?

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#98
post #12
post #8

I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift…

We see this all the time in tech, cannot find people is usually cannot find people with the skills and experience we want for the price we are willing to pay. This will always be true if you offer less than the current market rate which startups seems to think they are entitled to.

Often skills that could be learned in a week by an experienced practitioner, but we refuse to let you learn them on the job! Even if you'll be at the job for years. Rather wait a year instead for a unicorn to show.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#99

I personally know several people who are no longer competitive in various jobs due to the massive influx of illegal immigrants. These are tradesmen, landscapers, and others who used to be able to support their families and live in the area. Many of them now commute long distances (so they can live in lower cost areas) for far less pay. Their children are not following them into these jobs. And its not because they're…

Blaming on the immigrants again...

I don't believe it. If you are a skilled landscaper or tradesman you are able to earn a good wage.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#100
post #27
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple, for instance, nets almost all of the profits from an iPhone, yet in the trade balance an iPhone magically counts as a $1000 deficit with China. What good does Apple's record profits do for the US? Apple is owned by shareholders across the world, and Americans benefit only insofar as they actually own Apple stock.

Normally those profits would be taxed in the US...

The profits made by Apple Germany are taxed in Germany. Profits made by Apple US are taxed in the US. In theory... In practice very little of what they make is taxed.
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