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Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

marketwatch.com

71–80 of 160 posts

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#71
>Higher minimum wages are probably another cause.

>After declining in inflation-adjusted terms from 1998 to 2007, minimum wages rose almost 11% in real terms between 2007 and 2016, Abraham and Kearney estimated. Firms may have outsourced jobs or spent more on automation to offset the higher costs of low-skilled labor.

Is it just me, or is this a shockingly misleading paragraph? That minimum wages rose in real terms tells us nothing. They may have kept in place with inflation, or they may have even continued to fall in inflation-adjusted terms. This is not an apples-to-apples comparison at all.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#72

I personally know several people who are no longer competitive in various jobs due to the massive influx of illegal immigrants. These are tradesmen, landscapers, and others who used to be able to support their families and live in the area. Many of them now commute long distances (so they can live in lower cost areas) for far less pay. Their children are not following them into these jobs. And its not because they're…

So how do the immigrants manage to go by and live with the same wage?

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#73
post #12
post #8

I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift…

We see this all the time in tech, cannot find people is usually cannot find people with the skills and experience we want for the price we are willing to pay. This will always be true if you offer less than the current market rate which startups seems to think they are entitled to.

I always hear people claiming tech is full of over-inflated salaries, then look at jobs in my area and see that people want a web-dev with 3-5 years of experience in specific frameworks and offer to pay about $82k/year.

Yeah ok guys, that's pretty inflated, innit /s?

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#74
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In this age of ghosting people, it seems like everybody is just eyeing everyone else for a reason to stop talking to them or pull the trigger on the block button. We used to be socially-integrated enough to put up with people's foibles and correct them until we are all within a liveable range. Now you cannot confront or give feedback without it blowing up into hyperbole. I have been openly asked about my politics at…

Well considering y combinator is not empty every year, there must be people who have a chance with that level of scrutiny.

And we have a word for those people: milquetoast. I'm not sure people would hire me after asking about my politics for 20 minutes. What, you're gonna employ someone after getting an earful about Marx and Bookchin?

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#75
I can squeeze myself into that group due to long extents of unemployment in my prime years and I:

- graduated college early

- graduated law school early

- was a judicial law school

- co-developed and sold a patent pending business method for the automated calculation of fees in statutory litigation

In my specific case, especially in law, one thing holds me back (essentially placing me on a do not hire blacklist) I have a blemish on my criminal record for a possession of marijuana charge when I was 21 years old. Law is an old school industry that doesn’t generally overlook that type of thing, I even had 1 interview end immediately right when that was asked/disclosed during the interview itself. But even outside of Law I have applied to hundreds of jobs without ever getting interviews, I have applied to all the tech companies (in legal positions) without an interview. I have probably even applied to a dozen or so YC companies and never a single interview, YC even invested in a start up that is supposed to help people with criminal records get jobs and I reached out for assistance and was told they couldn’t assist me. This brings me to my second point, like there are “blacklists” and policies against candidates with criminal records, there are just plain old blacklists and I bet most of this 3.5 million are on them.

It’s not just People with criminal records either, people with poor credit are on blacklists, people with employment gaps are on blacklists. These blacklists are both internal company policies but also in some cases real shared lists between recruiters and other lists HR checks. I’ll personally be alright because I can make money without a job but most can’t and need traditional emoloyment. And they will never get a job because they are in in this endless cycle of employment gap and poor finances (bad credit) that can never be rehabilitated because of mindless policy. This also explains a class of people ready and willing to be exploited in the gig economy.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#76
post #35
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One way to look at it is there is a ceiling on American wages imposed by globalization. Above that ceiling you're better off going overseas. But that ceiling is below the market-clearing price of labor in the us.

That does not work. If you can substitute foreign labor then there is no shortage. If you can't substitute foreign labor then it's irrelevant. You can't have a shortage of workers and falling wages. You can have uncompetitive US companies, but they are very profitable so the only thing left is irrational behavior.

>You can't have a shortage of workers and falling wages. You can have uncompetitive US companies, but they are very profitable so the only thing left is irrational behavior.

Or insufficient capital investment and bad management holding down productivity. You can't pay a worker more than their productivity, but if the best you can get out of them is too little, it may not be worth their while. You could then plausibly see a shortage of workers, wage suppression, and stagnant productivity statistics at the same time.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#77
post #72

I personally know several people who are no longer competitive in various jobs due to the massive influx of illegal immigrants. These are tradesmen, landscapers, and others who used to be able to support their families and live in the area. Many of them now commute long distances (so they can live in lower cost areas) for far less pay. Their children are not following them into these jobs. And its not because they're…

So how do the immigrants manage to go by and live with the same wage?

They're committing document and identity fraud and dodging taxes. They're breaking housing laws by living multiple unrelated people (beyond legal capacity) per dwelling. We just had 9 illegal aliens evicted from a 2BR house not too far away.

Good for them (probably a step up from 3rd world conditions), but bad if you want to maintain some quality of life.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#78
post #8

I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift…

Depends governments like to fiddle unemployment figures under reporting that actual unemployment rate.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#79
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. One other factor which the study does not touch upon but I do wonder about - burnout - essentially "poor employment conditions". One thing which has substantially changed between '99 and now is employer expectation of availability. In '99, you may have worked 9-6, but when you left the office, you left the office. Sure, some tech folks, some traders, etc. may have had pagers back then - but now, the mobile ph…

Honest question: how do you survive. I don’t feel like I’ve ever had the option to opt out, unless I wanted to move home with Mom. The opportunity might be different than it used to be.

I sold my equity back to the business when I left. It wasn't crazy money, but enough to tide me over while transitioning to self-suffiency - I'm now the proud owner of a shack and a few acres of halfway decent arable land in a remote corner of Uruguay. $25,000 outlay. Becoming a citizen and all that is easy here.

I know it's not an option open to everyone, and I'll be honest and say that a lot of the folks I've met have trod a similar path - startup, decade of unsustainable grind, total burnout, with maybe 0.1% of what we dreamed of to show for it.

I have however also met folks on the road who've thrown the towel in with no capital, who are finding ways of making it work - one couple even had two under-ten children, and were travelling, gigging, and educating their incredibly worldly and well informed kids, with a view to "maybe finding a ruin somewhere". It takes all sorts, but I think there are an increasing number of people "opting out".

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#80
post #72

I personally know several people who are no longer competitive in various jobs due to the massive influx of illegal immigrants. These are tradesmen, landscapers, and others who used to be able to support their families and live in the area. Many of them now commute long distances (so they can live in lower cost areas) for far less pay. Their children are not following them into these jobs. And its not because they're…

So how do the immigrants manage to go by and live with the same wage?

Accepting a lower standard of living
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