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Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

marketwatch.com

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Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#51

Post by madaxe_again »

ekidd wrote: post #8

I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift…

Indeed. One other factor which the study does not touch upon but I do wonder about - burnout - essentially "poor employment conditions".

One thing which has substantially changed between '99 and now is employer expectation of availability. In '99, you may have worked 9-6, but when you left the office, you left the office. Sure, some tech folks, some traders, etc. may have had pagers back then - but now, the mobile phone is ubiquitous, and the universal expectation is that you are available and ready to work, even if it's 4am on Sunday and you got married yesterday.

It's purely anecdotal, but I am "in my prime", and have opted out of being a productive member of society for now, as being broke beats being broken. I'm not alone in this - in the past 18 months of peripateticism, I've met many others, mostly tech folks, in the same boat.

Bluntly, market price isn't enough to completely sacrifice any semblance of an existence outside of work.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#52

Post by 8ytecoder »

ekidd wrote: post #8

I'm deeply skeptical of any explanation that claims that we have both a "shortage of labor" and "downward pressure on wages": > If men and women from the ages 25 to 54 took part in the labor market... [t]hat would be more fuel for the U.S. economy and a bigger source of workers for businesses crying out about a shortage of labor... > Trade with China flooded the U.S. with cheap imports, forced domestic firms to shift…

There's a related problem. No company wants to be the first to raise wages either because their margin is already thin or they don't yet have faith in the economy to dive head first. Usually the latter. A lot about the economy is sentiment. When sentiment improves, companies will invest more in labor as well as other improvements. Until then they wouldn't want to look a fool.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#53

Post by throwaway65536 »

psyc wrote: post #44
kmonsen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We see this all the time in tech, cannot find people is usually cannot find people with the skills and experience we want for the price we are willing to pay. This will always be true if you offer less than the current market rate which startups seems to think they are entitled to.

What I've seen in tech is the idea that literally any number of false negatives is worth avoiding a single bad hire. It's fine to claim that trade-off is worth it to you, but it's ludicrous to simultaneously claim there's a shortage of talent. That's just a shortage of risk-free opportunity. Hey, I suffer from a shortage of risk-free opportunities too.

In this age of ghosting people, it seems like everybody is just eyeing everyone else for a reason to stop talking to them or pull the trigger on the block button. We used to be socially-integrated enough to put up with people's foibles and correct them until we are all within a liveable range. Now you cannot confront or give feedback without it blowing up into hyperbole.

I have been openly asked about my politics at an interview for a Y Combinator startup (Starsky Robotics). "We need to make sure you are not a horrible person." One of my references later told me that the co-founder was on the phone almost 20 minutes asking probing questions about me. No offer, no feedback. Who stands a chance with that level of scrutiny?

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#54

Post by curuinor »

craftyguy wrote: post #25
curuinor wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry to be seeming to make a straw man, but do you actually in sober thought think that economics is as well-understood as physics?

Did you just post a rebutal to your original comment calling for 'experiments'? If economics is as mysterious as you say, how can you design experiments that produce verifiable and reproducible results?

Physics has had a lot of predictive power: economics hasn't. "Asteroids are incredibly powerful" is a physical statement, and a physical statement of causation that you can only make because physics is better-understood.

With exceptions, physical statements have predictive power. With exceptions, economic statements don't. So that's why I say that causality in economics is not generally understood.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#55

Post by jacquesm »

Clubber wrote: post #48
jacquesm wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As long as america continue to allow free trade our wealth and jobs will flow out of the country as countries seek cheaper labor and sell it right back to America with no restrictions. What an incredible nonsense. America has been pushing free trade all over the globe to be able to sell American products into other markets. They're not 'allowing' free trade, they have been pushing it for all it's worth and then som…

>They're not 'allowing' free trade, they have been pushing it I think you're mincing words and avoiding the main argument. Wether or not the US government is "pushing" or "allowing" doesn't alter the affect on the US manufacturing sector and jobs overall. I suspect from a corporations' point of view, they are "pushing" it, from labor's point of view, they are "allowing" it. Both political parties embrace it and as it…

American companies have actively moved their manufacturing to other countries to save on labor, nobody forced them.

This resulted in lower prices but was a net negative for the American job market.

America was totally free to engage in free trade by exporting their local products abroad, and by accepting foreign products to be sold in their own market without gutting their production capacity.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#56

Post by jlmorton »

UncleEntity wrote: post #46
jlmorton wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is so wrong with California using its leverage as America's largest state economy to protect the interests of its residents, just like China does? It's just a thought experiment. I understand the US constitution vests the power to regulate interstate commerce with the Federal government. Let me put it another way. If it would be advantageous for the US to erect trade barriers against Chinese exports, why would i…

> If it would be advantageous for the US to erect trade barriers against Chinese exports, why would it not be advantageous for California to erect trade barriers against Mississippi, where average wages are dramatically lower, there are far fewer environmental regulations, etc. It would totally benefit California because they could do whatever they wanted and companies couldn't just up and move to Mississippi if thin…

> Not really sure what the point of this red herring is but the theory of protectionism applies equally well at all levels from the mom and pop grocery store opposed to a new Walmart to continent sized economic blocks.

I agree that the effects would be largely the same. The point of the thought experiment is that protectionists never clamor for interstate trade barriers.

Almost universally, protectionists accept and even marvel at the US single market and interstate free trade, but they somehow lose sight of the benefits when trade becomes international.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#57

Post by jacquesm »

mc32 wrote: post #41
jacquesm wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America has never had a 'reciprocal' free trade agreement, it has used the banner of free trade to engage in low level asymmetric trade wars. The stupid mistake they made was to ship their production capability to China, Japan got where they are under their own power, though the degree to which the Japanese bought Japanese products (mainly because of quality) meant that American products with a Japanese equivalent ne…

The Japanese engaged in and got away with things like tariffs on Rossignol under the made up excuse that Japanese snow is unique, and thus only Japanese skis were fit for skiing in Japan. Sure, their snow in some places is "wetter", but we now see western skis doing well there and Japanese skis performing well on non Japanese snow. That's the kind of nonsense our leadership should have stood up to.

Indeed, that is nonsense.

Rossignol is a French company by the way.

But I don't see anything exceptional there, it is similar to the nonsense America engages in vv Canada when it comes to dairy, beef and lumber.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#58

Post by lotsofpulp »

narrator wrote: post #28
galieos_ghost wrote: post #6

Not sure why people are shocked by this, it's just the basic principle of diffusion. As long as america continue to allow free trade our wealth and jobs will flow out of the country as countries seek cheaper labor and sell it right back to America with no restrictions. The standard of living is raising in other countries while lowering in the US. Labor is already getting too expensive in China for cheap goods so comp…

The weird thing about your argument is if you take off the lense of national boundaries the argument gains an extra dimension and becomes more complex. For example, I recently heard from a friend with family in China that Americans who go to China can make $50 an hour private English tutoring rich Chinese kids. How can wages be rising so much in China and they are still wildly undercutting us? The other weird thing i…

It’s not an unusual phenomenon. It’s just the market at work, changing the prices due to changes in supply and demand. The price of people (aka their wage) goes down because the supply of people has gone way up.

The quality of life is equalizing across the world and this is how. Those who were higher have to go down, those who were lower will go up.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#59

Post by psyc »

throwaway65536 wrote: post #53
psyc wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I've seen in tech is the idea that literally any number of false negatives is worth avoiding a single bad hire. It's fine to claim that trade-off is worth it to you, but it's ludicrous to simultaneously claim there's a shortage of talent. That's just a shortage of risk-free opportunity. Hey, I suffer from a shortage of risk-free opportunities too.

In this age of ghosting people, it seems like everybody is just eyeing everyone else for a reason to stop talking to them or pull the trigger on the block button. We used to be socially-integrated enough to put up with people's foibles and correct them until we are all within a liveable range. Now you cannot confront or give feedback without it blowing up into hyperbole. I have been openly asked about my politics at…

This hasn’t happened to me yet, but now it has a place in my thoughts, whereas 10 years ago I had no inkling of the possibility whatsoever.

Re: Why 3.5M Americans in their prime years aren’t working

#60

Post by UncleEntity »

narrator wrote: post #28
galieos_ghost wrote: post #6

Not sure why people are shocked by this, it's just the basic principle of diffusion. As long as america continue to allow free trade our wealth and jobs will flow out of the country as countries seek cheaper labor and sell it right back to America with no restrictions. The standard of living is raising in other countries while lowering in the US. Labor is already getting too expensive in China for cheap goods so comp…

The weird thing about your argument is if you take off the lense of national boundaries the argument gains an extra dimension and becomes more complex. For example, I recently heard from a friend with family in China that Americans who go to China can make $50 an hour private English tutoring rich Chinese kids. How can wages be rising so much in China and they are still wildly undercutting us? The other weird thing i…

> Everything is so expensive that people can't live on low wages and be content.

I live on low wages and am content.

I work a hundred-something days a year at a job any idiot can perform and manage to keep a roof over my head in a pretty decent neighborhood and food in my belly. If I really want something all I have to do is work a few extra days or weeks until I earn enough to buy it then go back to my regular slacker schedule.

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