Great article that seems to leave the question unresolved. If technological unemployment is not a large factor; but inequality within advanced economies is rising, then what other factors are at play? Are the changes necessary to deal with those causes the same changes that would be needed to deal with an all-knowing AI in 2150?
inequality is rising because some people are simply more skilled than others.
Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
41–50 of 233 posts
Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you produce one report in a day, or a computer does it more accurately in 50ms and you don't need the person, the same amount of work is done.
That doesn't make any sense to me. So, if a tractor digs a hole in 5 minutes that a person could dig in a day, the same work is being done because a person could have done it? If a horse carries a person 10 miles in an hour and a car does it in 10 minutes, the same work is done because the horse did the same work as the car? Does an ATM do no work because a teller could do the same thing, just slower and at higher co…
For example, let's say that the task is to add up a list of 10,000 numbers. It might take a human a while to accomplish this accurately. A computer won't take much time at all. The computer is accomplishing the same work as the human in a much shorter amount of time. The computer could handle a vast number of such tasks per day for a lower price than any human, with better accuracy.
Similarly, imagine hauling cargo across the country. A human could put the packages on their back and walk, or alternatively a human and freight train team could haul them by rail. The human and freight train team accomplishes vastly more work than the human alone, and is able to haul much larger and heavier packages at a much faster speed.
Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
>The difference I see is that historically automation was used to increase productivity. Is this true? The stocking frame (and the reactionary group of Luddites that it incited) didn't really increase productivity. It just did work humans were doing for less money than a human salary. I guess I also just don't see much difference. All that will happen will be again a shift away from many kinds of jobs (the easily aut…
> didn't really increase productivity. It just did work humans were doing for less money than a human salary. this is by definition "increasing productivity" isn't it? > All that will happen will be again a shift away from many kinds of jobs (the easily automatible ones) to different kinds. If that's true, then what will the shift be to ? These are interesting questions. And how long will the shift take? Because I th…
A few possibilities, at least short term:
Some manufacturing returns to the US with help of robots. Maybe even as an exportible industry.
Maybe it's possible to simplify those complex jobs that more people could do them?
It's possible for the some of the new,highly automated industries to be a net job creator. For example one scenario for self-driving is that it will be partly remotely-operated ,i.e. jobs , instead of people driving themselves.
Things may become cheaper and people will spend the money left on human based experiences/services ? Or even an whole economy based on human interaction because that's the one thing robots couldn't do?
Or like we always did , we'll find some useless thing(like consumerism) that will create jobs and build society around it ?
Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
I absolutely agree. I think that the whole notion of automation being responsible for job losses is also lies and misdirection. The man behind the curtain is telling us to avoid paying too much attention to austerity, outsourcing, offshoring and union busting. In 2011, for instance, amid a period of labor unrest, Hong hai announced to the world with much fanfare that they were going to soon eliminate 1 million jobs w…
I agree with everything except one minor detail. Not sure if outsourcing and offshoring are such bad things. I mean, if someone will work for less than you, you either need to do better work, do cheaper work, or find different work.
After the industrial revolution, the enclosure movement was used to strip peasants of their land. After being dispossessed, they were then desperate enough to accept the paltry wages and disgusting working conditions offered by the factory owners.
Today, a Chinese factory worker may be saving money because they need to care for their infirm grandmother living in a cancer village because the state provides little to no social welfare support for her.
Do you think it's germane to argue on a moral basis that because China provides no welfare for that grandmother that American factory workers ought to take a pay cut?
Personally, I think trade policy needs to be intimately connected to human rights and environmental and labor conditions. No improvement in those sectors, no deal. That isn't the world we live in though. We live in a world where Obama tried to excuse Malaysian slavery in order to try and enact a trade deal so that American workers could be forced to compete with slaves in Malaysia.
Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
#45But I would like to critically consider the "indicative trends" mentality of the author. Entities with ML algorithms that could replace jobs enmasse do not yet exist, so past or current economic trends shouldn't indicate anything. ML algorithms did not gradually takeover Go, for instance - the transition to AI should neither be so gradual. Maybe if someone did micro-studies on Uber's effect on Taxi drivers, it would server as a proxy but even Uber isn't a self driving car company (yet).
That said, I really enjoyed reading about what is causing unemployment or the loss of jobs. It's an interesting observation that disabilities is rising as the reason for unemployment in the US. But again, attribution of these trends is always difficult.
Anyways, thanks to the author for doing the explorative work.
Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
>The difference I see is that historically automation was used to increase productivity. Is this true? The stocking frame (and the reactionary group of Luddites that it incited) didn't really increase productivity. It just did work humans were doing for less money than a human salary. I guess I also just don't see much difference. All that will happen will be again a shift away from many kinds of jobs (the easily aut…
>Is this true? The stocking frame (and the reactionary group of Luddites that it incited) didn't really increase productivity. It just did work humans were doing for less money than a human salary. Mechanisation of the textile industry led to vast increases in the quantity of production. Prior to the industrial revolution, most peasants would have owned only one set of clothes and replaced them only when they were en…
AI/ML which can mine through sports footage to create highlight reels and funny clip collections, etc will create tons of consumer goods (videos) which can all be monetized on Youtube. Just one example.
How about Netflix? They use AI/ML quite a bit. It seems to have driven quite a lot more people to watch movies and tv than before.
Amazon uses AI/ML in its Echo, which was quite a high-selling consumer good last holiday season.
Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
#47Great article that seems to leave the question unresolved. If technological unemployment is not a large factor; but inequality within advanced economies is rising, then what other factors are at play? Are the changes necessary to deal with those causes the same changes that would be needed to deal with an all-knowing AI in 2150?
inequality is rising because some people are simply more skilled than others.
The Economist just ran a profile on Chris Hughes, Mark Zuckerberg’s second-year roommate, who, by virtue of being his roommate, lucked into a huge net worth from the early stage creation of Facebook.
https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21737016-and-d...
Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree with everything except one minor detail. Not sure if outsourcing and offshoring are such bad things. I mean, if someone will work for less than you, you either need to do better work, do cheaper work, or find different work.
In the luddites' case that 'person' was willing to work for less using the weaving machinery because they were desperate. The Napoleonic Wars made them lose their livelihoods, homes and families. After the industrial revolution, the enclosure movement was used to strip peasants of their land. After being dispossessed, they were then desperate enough to accept the paltry wages and disgusting working conditions offered…
It's never ever ever going to happen. Be careful what you wish for. If what you wanted to happen happened, you would be paying over $100 for the same shirt that costs you $6 in Walmart right now.
I also want to point out that, yes, in a globally competitive world wages become globally competitive. If a Chinese worker with an infirm grandmother is surviving on a lower wage than an American was making without an infirm grandmother, then that American needs to find better work, do better quality work, or take a pay cut. We would never force consumers to buy products produced only by ethical means or only by human-rights approved conditions (if that were the case, no more chocolate!). Why would we do that to multinational companies?
There aren't other options available. No President is going to preside over the term where all the trade deals were made alongside human rights conditionals and all the goods skyrocketed in price leading to another Great Depression.
> We live in a world where Obama tried to excuse Malaysian slavery in order to try and enact a trade deal so that American workers could be forced to compete with slaves in Malaysia.
You can boohoo about it all you want, but your chocolate, your coffee, your clothes, and your computer parts are all made by or had their materials harvested by slaves, and most likely you would scoff at voluntarily paying twice the price for all those commodities. I'm not saying everyone should be enslaved. But if consumers have the right to purchase such ill-made goods, then companies have the right to offshore their labor forces to such places too.
Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
#49Great article that seems to leave the question unresolved. If technological unemployment is not a large factor; but inequality within advanced economies is rising, then what other factors are at play? Are the changes necessary to deal with those causes the same changes that would be needed to deal with an all-knowing AI in 2150?
inequality is rising because some people are simply more skilled than others.
How about a societal/practical problem? Is an unequal society sustainable?
What actions can be taken to mitigate the ethical and practical problems presented by inequality?
Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know
#50It feels like we're moving away from jobs that are purely productive, to jobs that are more creative. I don't mean arts etc, but 50 years ago a company like Facebook/Snap/Gaming/Any digital entertainment really, could not exist because people were occupied work that was required for society to function. Now humans can start focusing on spending their day building things for the entertainment of other humans, and also…
Advertising doesn't produce anything useful in itself, it simply shifts and amplifies demand, and yet, Google, Facebook, and a vast slice of the rest of the economy is dedicated to producing ads.
Even companies which are nominally dedicated to producing things of importance (eg pharmaceuticals) are mostly focussed on marketing.
Then there's the entire middle management strata of the the economy. Mostly a useless but noisy zero-sum jockeying for a rungs on the socio-economic ladder.
The economy is already large enough to produce plenty for everybody, guarantee food, housing and healthcare for all, and with shorter working hours at that.
Unfortunately we're trapped in this bizarre economic system that works us to the bone in pointless jobs we hate, and can't even guarantee us the basics.