Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

slatestarcodex.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

11–20 of 233 posts

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#11

Post by erikrothoff »

crc32 wrote: post #7
erikrothoff wrote: post #5

It feels like we're moving away from jobs that are purely productive, to jobs that are more creative. I don't mean arts etc, but 50 years ago a company like Facebook/Snap/Gaming/Any digital entertainment really, could not exist because people were occupied work that was required for society to function. Now humans can start focusing on spending their day building things for the entertainment of other humans, and also…

Maybe. On the downside; maybe those jobs won't be available to everyone because there is a skills gap or there aren't enough of them. If there are people who are left behind; what do we do about it?

In my mind large corporations like Facebook are a good example, because not all of their 25,000 are programmers or "high skilled workers". Their will always exist an ecosystem around large groups of people that are diverse enough to satisfy most types of people.

I'm not saying that this is the end-all solution to the larger problem described by the article, but I do feel some hope that it will work itself out. However, the advent of self-driving cars will be interesting to follow, considering how many people work in human transportation. But I'm optimistic!

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#12

Post by crc32 »

abusoufiyan wrote: post #6
onion2k wrote: post #2

The difference I see is that historically automation was used to increase productivity. I don't see that in the current wave of "AI"-based automation. There's an emphasis on speed, accuracy, and working with more unknowns, but there isn't any talk of getting more work done. That makes it scary.

>The difference I see is that historically automation was used to increase productivity. Is this true? The stocking frame (and the reactionary group of Luddites that it incited) didn't really increase productivity. It just did work humans were doing for less money than a human salary. I guess I also just don't see much difference. All that will happen will be again a shift away from many kinds of jobs (the easily aut…

> didn't really increase productivity. It just did work humans were doing for less money than a human salary.

this is by definition "increasing productivity" isn't it?

> All that will happen will be again a shift away from many kinds of jobs (the easily automatible ones) to different kinds.

If that's true, then what will the shift be to? These are interesting questions. And how long will the shift take? Because I think there is a general feeling that current levels of inequality - the "hollowing out" of the middle class - are due to trends in automation.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#13

Post by crc32 »

announcerman wrote: post #10
crc32 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe. On the downside; maybe those jobs won't be available to everyone because there is a skills gap or there aren't enough of them. If there are people who are left behind; what do we do about it?

As long as it isn't profitable to help the people left behind there won't be much done. Hopefully the people left behind will start making it unprofitable for the elites to ignore them. Probably won't happen though due to the vast amount of surveillance we're subjected to along with possible robotic police force in the future.

Yes. What is being suggested by the zeitgeist is that we are in a transition period; and that the scale of the problem is going to be so large that it cannot be ignored.

That is, if 75% of the population has no job in 2150 you have a huge ethical and societal problem.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#14

Post by ghostcluster »

erikrothoff wrote: post #5

It feels like we're moving away from jobs that are purely productive, to jobs that are more creative. I don't mean arts etc, but 50 years ago a company like Facebook/Snap/Gaming/Any digital entertainment really, could not exist because people were occupied work that was required for society to function. Now humans can start focusing on spending their day building things for the entertainment of other humans, and also…

Those kinds of jobs are only sustainable when the audience is 100-1000x + the size of the pool of creators. It's not a broad panacea.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#15

Post by crdoconnor »

abusoufiyan wrote: post #6
onion2k wrote: post #2

The difference I see is that historically automation was used to increase productivity. I don't see that in the current wave of "AI"-based automation. There's an emphasis on speed, accuracy, and working with more unknowns, but there isn't any talk of getting more work done. That makes it scary.

>The difference I see is that historically automation was used to increase productivity. Is this true? The stocking frame (and the reactionary group of Luddites that it incited) didn't really increase productivity. It just did work humans were doing for less money than a human salary. I guess I also just don't see much difference. All that will happen will be again a shift away from many kinds of jobs (the easily aut…

>Is this true? The stocking frame (and the reactionary group of Luddites that it incited) didn't really increase productivity.

It was largely used to employ cheap labor to produce crap. The luddites produced higher value artisinal goods.

The luddites weren't reactionaries intent on destroying technology any more than strikers are protesting against the concept of 'work', they were just saboteurs trying to improve their negotiating position.

The whole thing about them being anti-technology is historical revisionism. Similarly, French taxi anti-uber strikers in 2013 were literally depicted by Forbes as being "anti smartphone" - the motive for the lie being the same in both cases.

The reason why low wage employment and crap clothes were more economically successful at the time had more to do with the economically hemorrhaging effect of the Napoleonic wars - which led to cheaper, more desperate labor and a demand for cheaper goods. It's a bit like how McDonalds gets a sales boost during recessions while mid range restaurants take a hit.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#16

Post by landryraccoon »

onion2k wrote: post #2

The difference I see is that historically automation was used to increase productivity. I don't see that in the current wave of "AI"-based automation. There's an emphasis on speed, accuracy, and working with more unknowns, but there isn't any talk of getting more work done. That makes it scary.

> There's an emphasis on speed, accuracy, and working with more unknowns

How is this not getting more work done? It sounds exactly like more work is getting done to me.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#18

Post by elgenie »

erikrothoff wrote: post #5

It feels like we're moving away from jobs that are purely productive, to jobs that are more creative. I don't mean arts etc, but 50 years ago a company like Facebook/Snap/Gaming/Any digital entertainment really, could not exist because people were occupied work that was required for society to function. Now humans can start focusing on spending their day building things for the entertainment of other humans, and also…

Facebook/Snap/Gaming/Digital-Entertainment don't employ all that many people.

I'd be surprised if the ratio of entertainers / audience is much different than it was for, say, stars of silent movies 100 years ago, even though Charlie Chaplin wasn't doing something that could be termed "needed for society to function".

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#19

Post by TheLostOne »

We have three sectors, agriculture, industry and service.

Technology has replaced people in agriculture, at the same time industry jobs exploded. Most people were shifted.

Technology has replace people in industry, but there were services to provide - lower paying - jobs. Most people were shifted.

Now technology replaces jobs in services. There is no "next" sector.

Re: Technological Unemployment: Much More Than You Wanted to Know

#20

Post by crc32 »

Great article that seems to leave the question unresolved.

If technological unemployment is not a large factor; but inequality within advanced economies is rising, then what other factors are at play? Are the changes necessary to deal with those causes the same changes that would be needed to deal with an all-knowing AI in 2150?

Post reply on HN