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26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

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Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#171
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

English, German, Irish, swedish descent = Christian, white population, all speaking English as a first language, all from similar cultures. It’s way more diverse in Sweden. I lived in NYC, and have travelled a lot in Sweden. Nowadays, large Swedish cities are much more diverse.

Even if you lump all the european people together, the fact remains that Stockholm is probably 80% European and New York City is less than 30% European.

But NYC’ black or latino population is (mainly) Christian and mainly speaks Englsh

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#172
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of people (in the US at least, not, say, Sweden) care more about revenge and suffering inflicted on the criminals than rehabilitating them (or even preventing them from doing more harm -- they are e.g. totally ok if they do more harm, but inside, to other inmates). What I hope is that those people get to experience prison for inside, and even better, for some BS reason, like the reasons tons of people are in jai…

Isn't there a bit of irony there? In that you want to send the send-people-to-prison-to-suffer people to prison to suffer?

Let's call it poetic justice, or taste of their own medicine.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#173
post #73
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Persistence in violence was associated with male sex (OR 2.5), personality disorder (OR 2.3), violent crime conviction before age 19 (OR 2.0), drug-related offenses (OR 1.9), nonviolent criminality (OR 1.9), substance use disorder (OR 1.9), and major mental disorder (OR 1.3). So you are confusing mental/behavior explanations with unscientific correlation-hunting racial explanations that are too popular in discourse…

Typically it's the accusers of racism who make these conflagrations. These are usually well-intentioned progressives who, in their zeal to protect minorities, pounce on anything that could possibly be warped into an attack on minorities. For example, that time James Damore was crucified for suggesting that population level gender differences might better explain Google's hiring pipeline than discrimination.

Please don't take HN into full blown ideological flamewar. The more generic such tangents get, the more unmoored they become from anything specific the thread is discussing, and the more of a black hole they turn into.

Your comment here is emblematic of exactly what HN discussions need not to do. That requires the strength to resist temptation.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prison is a deterrent, certainly, but it also exists to keep violent folks away from the rest of society so they can't do more harm.

This study indicates that incarceration, at least as it is currently implemented, is emphatically not a deterrent for repeat violent offenders. As for the public safety element, yes, but these people mostly weren’t locked up for life. What this shows, at least, in my opinion, is that much more intensive psychological and therapeutic interventions are needed, because if anything, incarceration as it currently exists w…

You're missing the other half of the picture. How many were deterred because of prison? Would it have been 2 or 5 or 10% were it not for the deterrents? You can't say.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This study indicates that incarceration, at least as it is currently implemented, is emphatically not a deterrent for repeat violent offenders. As for the public safety element, yes, but these people mostly weren’t locked up for life. What this shows, at least, in my opinion, is that much more intensive psychological and therapeutic interventions are needed, because if anything, incarceration as it currently exists w…

Or, more simply, you could incarcerate repeat offenders for longer periods of time.

"Our study suggests that 3 months of imprisonment in an impoverished environment may lead to reduced self-control, measured as increased risk taking and reduced attentional performance. This is a significant and societally relevant finding, as released prisoners may be less capable of living a lawful life than they were prior to their imprisonment, and may be more prone to impulsive risk-taking behavior. In other words, the impoverished environment may contribute to an enhanced risk of reoffending."

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.0006...

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#176
On other news, water is wet!!!

Imagine what kind of society it would be if the number of convicted felons and ex-felons (of violent crimes alone!!!) would be a significative percentage of the population.

Either, it would be a Mad-Max world where everybody would be shooting and stabbing their neighbour for the most ridiculous reasons; or we would all live under the boot of a Despotic Government that would put you in jail for the tiniest displays of non-compliance... like, calling "violence" to scowling at some annoying person or another.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we need to start linking famous peoples tweets to show that your position is false? Plenty of people jump on the “that’s racism” bandwagon. If they can’t attack the math they attack the author and make wild accusations about their intent. Truth is treason in an empire of lies, and socially most would rather live with comfortable lies.

Very true. Ben Affleck on Real Time was a perfect example of this. He literally equated challenging bad ideas with racism.

Do you have a citation for that? It’s not what we’re talking about – no one is being criticized for actual science – but the coverage I saw didn’t support that claim at all.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#178
post #113
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What you are saying is troubling because it shows that many people really don't understand what it is that we call racist -- and it's not studies like these. I am a radical leftist (and a radical feminist) and I do not consider a statistical assertion such as "black people in the US are significantly overrepresented among those who commit violent crimes" at all as racist. You might not, but lots of people do -- and…

Not true, and this is precisely what I find troubling -- that you misunderstand them and miss the actual problem they point out. Obviously, I can't vouch for everyone , but since I haven't seen any behavior of the kind you refer to (certainly not among more-or-less mainstream figure), I can safely assume it's not done by "lots of people".

Just have a look at the public discourse in Sweden and you'll soon find out your position is untenable. While you are right in stating that the majority of the population will not find [these assertions] racist (or xenophobe, islamophobe, etcetera) there is a big discrepancy between what people think and what they can state out loud for fear of being called just that. This is due in part to the fact that the media - print and broadcast - are very active in disavowing such standpoints and putting those labels on people who hold them. This in turn is most likely related to the large difference in political affiliations between the public at large (where you'll find an about even divide between "left" and "right", largely clustered around the centre) and those who work in the media (89% on the left side, 78% of which on the extreme left [1]). As those who are stamped with such a label can expect to be shunned by both friends as well as employers this habit of vocally labelling anyone who steps outside of the left-of-centre narrative as racist has created an atmosphere of fear for being pointed out [2].

So yes, at least in Sweden you'll voice an opinion like this at your own peril. You describe yourself as a radical leftist (and a radical feminist). I can all but guarantee that you would be an outcast among your peers if you even hint to having such opinions. A good example of this phenomenon can be found with Amineh Kakabaveh [3], a Kurdish woman who was shunned her party [4] because of her active stance against honour crimes, for women's rights and secularism.

[1] https://jmg.gu.se/digitalAssets/1284/1284227_nr38.pdf

[2] The wall seems to be crumbling a bit now that it is nearly impossible to remain ignorant of the facts. Some politicians still try to keep up the narrative but critical voices are now heard even in some mainstream publications.

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amineh_Kakabaveh

[4] "Vänsterpartiet", they used to call themselves the left-wing communist party but ditched the "communist" term after the dissolution of the Soviet Union

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#179

A better title would be: 26% of violent crime convicts accountable for 63% of violent crime convictions. In terms of the entire population, probably: * 96% never convicted * 3% convicted once * 1% convicted as many times as the justice system allows until well into middle age (average of five times) An interesting question is: How many of the 3% are released and take up normal life, and how many are not convicted aga…

Ok, let's try your title. I had to slightly compromise its grammar to fit the year in there too.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP said "Google", not the "US". What's "silly" about thinking males are the majority at Google?

OP said "population level gender differences might better explain Google's hiring pipeline". Men may be the majority of Google employees, but they clearly aren't the majority of the population. That suggests there is discrimination somewhere, either in Google's hiring approach or in wider society (it's unlikely that there is some innate difference between men and woman that would account for such a disparity).

> Men may be the majority of Google employees, but they clearly aren't the majority of the population. That suggests there is discrimination somewhere, either in Google's hiring approach or in wider society (it's unlikely that there is some innate difference between men and woman that would account for such a disparity).

OP was citing Damore's claim about population level differences. Damore's claim wasn't that the US is 80% male so of course Google is 80% male, it's that men and women have different distributions for a given trait (hence, "population level differences") and these differences in distribution might account for Google's demographics better than discrimination. One such population-level difference is that women are far more likely to choose careers that are flexible or to leave the workplace altogether to start a family. By itself, this difference doesn't likely account for the whole disparity, but there are others as well--women prefer to work with people as opposed to abstract reasoning systems. It could even be true that men and women are on average exactly as qualified to be a Google engineer, but that men have a flatter distribution (more representation at the extreme low and high end of the distribution) and that Google samples from the high end, ergo selecting more males. Greater male variability is common in lots of species (including humans) for lots of different traits. It's also interesting that female participation in STEM is inversely proportional to gender equality; countries with very high gender equality (e.g., Scandanavian countries) have relatively few women in STEM while cultures with less gender equality (the middle east, India, China, etc) have far greater STEM participation. It also seems unlikely that discrimination is the cause since women achieved parity in medicine and law in the '80s and '90s when the fields were notoriously, overtly sexist, but the tech industry can't move the needle despite sinking tens or hundreds of millions into "diversity". It seems entirely likely that innate differences play a significant role.

There will undoubtedly be a lot of (otherwise very intelligent) people who will read "population level gender differences" and interpret it as "Wait, you're saying X is true for literally every woman?! How can you generalize like that?!". Of course, this isn't what I'm saying or what the OP said or what Damore said, so let's not go down that straw man rabbit hole.

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