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26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

101–110 of 244 posts

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#101
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> exceedingly effective at dissuading the sort of people who designed and operate the system from committing crime More like the people who designed and operate the system consider everything they do legal and only criminalize the activity of people not like them.

> More like the people who designed and operate the system consider everything they do legal This is true by definition. Anyway, what sort of violent crime do you propose to legalize?

> what sort of violent crime do you propose to legalize

Hundreds of thousands die and are injured every year from prescription drugs, faulty automobiles, guns, and all manner of other defective products. Why not criminalize those violent crimes?

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#102

Before anyone espouses their favorite theory, you should note this study covers Sweden from 1973-2004 which is a very ethnically and relatively-economically homogeneous country with a population of < 10M people.

What does ethnic homogeneity have to do with this?

In some places violent crimes are overwhelmingly committed by this or that minority -- especially violent crimes of a certain type. Lots of places, for example, have some ethnically-colored mafias.

Another case is poorer immigrant minorities committing more crimes than the baseline population (because of their poorer upbringing, lack of opportunities, alienation from the host society, because some things are culturally OK in their old culture but crimes in their new one, etc).

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#103
post #22
post #5

Studies like this are hard, because they're usually labeled 'racist', or it turns into an ad hominem attack on the authors, or struck down in the media for singling out some minority group. I love the wording as it has a focus on the positive; summed up it basically says: we can't help those who we can't identity.

> Persistence in violence was associated with male sex (OR 2.5), personality disorder (OR 2.3), violent crime conviction before age 19 (OR 2.0), drug-related offenses (OR 1.9), nonviolent criminality (OR 1.9), substance use disorder (OR 1.9), and major mental disorder (OR 1.3). So you are confusing mental/behavior explanations with unscientific correlation-hunting racial explanations that are too popular in discourse…

It would be interesting to a breakdown by race done well. How do you categorise someone who has parents from different racial backgrounds? What about adopted children? How do you control for other relevant variables?

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#104
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So are you saying that the solution is to lock up these people for life? Because I hope that’s not what you are saying.

You hope that’s not what the commenter is saying, but what is your proposal instead? We can put significant effort into understanding criminals, for the purposes of both preemptive treatment and reactive rehabilitation, but this is not likely to eradicate crime. What do you suppose we should do with criminals who continue to commit violent or disruptive crimes in perpetuity? To clarify, I think the system could impro…

http://www.swiftcertainfair.com

Been studied, replicated, and thoroughly tested.

It’s just one option as well.

There are many many more.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This study indicates that incarceration, at least as it is currently implemented, is emphatically not a deterrent for repeat violent offenders. As for the public safety element, yes, but these people mostly weren’t locked up for life. What this shows, at least, in my opinion, is that much more intensive psychological and therapeutic interventions are needed, because if anything, incarceration as it currently exists w…

Or, more simply, you could incarcerate repeat offenders for longer periods of time.

I don't think people liked how Three Strikes laws have turned out.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#106
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the minds of many people the purpose of the system is not entirely to deter crime; some criminals will not be deterred and the secondary purpose of the system is to segregate such people from society by placing them into little boxes until the system decides they are no longer a danger to the rest of us.

So are you saying that the solution is to lock up these people for life? Because I hope that’s not what you are saying.

The way society treats recidivism, with a series of escalating time-outs, is very similar to how we treat questionable behavior in computer security with rate-limiting. It's not a binary choice where you either drop all pretense of security or have an oracle to always know exactly who should be kept locked away. Rather, there are benefits and trade-offs balanced in the design of each system, including the understanding that there is limited knowledge to go on at each enforcement point.

I think it is interesting to find such parallels in the design features of such a wide range of systems as courts, prisons, network firewalls, and authentication systems. One can imagine various interpretations in response to these parallels: on one extreme, the designs could demonstrate common cognitive biases of the humans designing them; on the other, the functioning systems could be illustrating natural truths that have been discovered through the evolution of these systems...

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Studies that don’t take into account socio-economics are, in fact, racist. When you control for income and wealth, particularly intergeneraltional, racial differences disappear.

Accept that isn’t true. Racial differences rarely disappear even when you take those factors into account. There is evidence that economic inequality has little to no effect whatsoever (1, 2). There is also evidence that inequality is predictive for blacks but no whites (3). There is also data that does support your latter conclusion, but my point is that this issue isn’t as clear cut as you’re framing it as. (1) htt…

Until you can account for multi century generational subjugation its going to be hard to say anything interesting.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#108
post #34
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden is as diverse as the US, or more so.

Well, it has had a massive influx of Middle Easterners in recent years but this study dates from 2004.

Actually in terms of other more diverse countries like the UK and USA probably not just seems a lot as Sweden had virtually zero BME migration until recently.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#109
post #73
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Persistence in violence was associated with male sex (OR 2.5), personality disorder (OR 2.3), violent crime conviction before age 19 (OR 2.0), drug-related offenses (OR 1.9), nonviolent criminality (OR 1.9), substance use disorder (OR 1.9), and major mental disorder (OR 1.3). So you are confusing mental/behavior explanations with unscientific correlation-hunting racial explanations that are too popular in discourse…

Typically it's the accusers of racism who make these conflagrations. These are usually well-intentioned progressives who, in their zeal to protect minorities, pounce on anything that could possibly be warped into an attack on minorities. For example, that time James Damore was crucified for suggesting that population level gender differences might better explain Google's hiring pipeline than discrimination.

You’re clearly not suggesting that the US is 80% male. Once you create a subset that fits your criteria it gets a little silly doesn’t it?

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#110
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You hope that’s not what the commenter is saying, but what is your proposal instead? We can put significant effort into understanding criminals, for the purposes of both preemptive treatment and reactive rehabilitation, but this is not likely to eradicate crime. What do you suppose we should do with criminals who continue to commit violent or disruptive crimes in perpetuity? To clarify, I think the system could impro…

http://www.swiftcertainfair.com Been studied, replicated, and thoroughly tested. It’s just one option as well. There are many many more.

Do you mind summarizing what that is a bit? I’d like to read about it, but either the link isn’t working for me (I’m on mobile) or it doesn’t contain much information aside from the homepage.
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