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26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

31–40 of 244 posts

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#31
post #17

An interesting 20/80 rule going on here. The good news is if we can fix whatever issues affect this 1%, we solve 63% of violent crimes. Or maybe I'm naive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confusion_matrix The challenge is to fix that 1%, without terrorizing the N% who look vaguely similar.

Yeah. Looking at the data, we could prevent 90% of violent crimes by locking up all men. Somehow, I don't think most people here would go for that.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#32
post #9
post #5

Studies like this are hard, because they're usually labeled 'racist', or it turns into an ad hominem attack on the authors, or struck down in the media for singling out some minority group. I love the wording as it has a focus on the positive; summed up it basically says: we can't help those who we can't identity.

I guess it’s easier in Sweden which is not especially diverse. Also it’s worth noting that these are convictions so will be missing any unreported violence, or that police didn’t follow up on, or that got off on technicalities

Sweden is as diverse as the US, or more so.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#33
Power law is everywhere in the world. It's gonna be 1% of scientists producing vast majority of worthwhile discoveries, 1% of founders building the biggest companies, and 1% of those companies owning most of their markets...

We may like equality but Nature likes the power law.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#34
post #32
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it’s easier in Sweden which is not especially diverse. Also it’s worth noting that these are convictions so will be missing any unreported violence, or that police didn’t follow up on, or that got off on technicalities

Sweden is as diverse as the US, or more so.

Well, it has had a massive influx of Middle Easterners in recent years but this study dates from 2004.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#35
1.) Violent crime is a rare event (in post-WW2 European societies), so the proportion of offenders is rather small. 2.) One time offenders have a hard time getting their feet on the ground after being released from prison. Without appropriate support & back in their old networks, they often have few alternatives than going down that road again. IMHO that's not exactly news. I personally find it slightly surprising that only about one quarter of people committing violent crimes become repeat offenders. This rate is actually lower than what I would have estimated. I thought the number would be about one half. Maybe we should reconsider the effectiveness of our penal system and think of other ways to deal with violent crime that helps offenders not to become repeat offenders.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#37
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does ethnic homogeneity have to do with this?

Studies like these that take place in the USA are labeled racist because they disproportionately include minorities.

Studies that don’t take into account socio-economics are, in fact, racist.

When you control for income and wealth, particularly intergeneraltional, racial differences disappear.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#38
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confusion_matrix The challenge is to fix that 1%, without terrorizing the N% who look vaguely similar.

Yeah. Looking at the data, we could prevent 90% of violent crimes by locking up all men. Somehow, I don't think most people here would go for that.

That's because it's half of the population. Also, the stronger and more aggressive half which presents a very serious practical obstacle: who would lock them up?

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#39
post #32
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess it’s easier in Sweden which is not especially diverse. Also it’s worth noting that these are convictions so will be missing any unreported violence, or that police didn’t follow up on, or that got off on technicalities

Sweden is as diverse as the US, or more so.

That’s patently false.

Re: 26% of violent crime convicts account for 63% of violent crime conviction (2014)

#40

Humans consistently make the same mistake about understand the motivations, the inhibiting and promoting pressures of other people. We assume that everyone else is exactly like us. Therefore, when we build systems and institutions that attempt to alter behavior, we encode our own motivations and desires as the impetus. I.E. why we have UX researchers, do user testing, A/B testing etc when we develop products. Our ins…

Prison is a deterrent, certainly, but it also exists to keep violent folks away from the rest of society so they can't do more harm.
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