Does this actually happen? My understanding is that skill supply is simply not elastic in this way. Kids generally pick what to do based on their aptitude and what they like to do, remuneration is a distant secondary concern. Changing careers is something people only do when they absolutely have to.
It appears altogether clear to me that supply and demand explains programming compensation perfectly, and that these dynamics aren't going to go away any time soon, for the same reason doctor and lawyer compensation stays healthy, lawyers less so.