No, You can't retire rich at 30 if you sell your startup • Hacker News Board

Re: No, You can't retire rich at 30 if you sell your startup

#171

Post by jimbokun » Tue, Aug 24, 2010, 1:04 AM UTC

yummyfajitas wrote: post #94

Deezul wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're making a mistake trying to apply something like Moore's law to a middle class lifestyle. Niche technological advancements don't necessarily translate to higher standards of living. If you're thinking the middle class life will simply scale the way hard drives and TV resolutions do you're in for a big surprise. I understand that many of the things we think we "need" or want become very relative over tim…

I'm not attempting to apply Moore's law, merely the past 40 years of growth to the next 40 (just as the original poster tried to do). In any case, the point I'm making is that "middle class life" needs a time period to be attached. "Middle class health care 1970" would be pretty cheap today - any medicine available back then is out of patent, and dying of untreatable cancer is pretty cheap. "Shelter 2010" is 60% bigg…

""Middle class health care 1970" would be pretty cheap today - any medicine available back then is out of patent, and dying of untreatable cancer is pretty cheap."

I question whether availability of drugs is the best indicator of overall health.

We are also a lot more sedentary, the quality of our food is probably not as a good, and we are a lot heavier. Given that, how many drugs do we need to just break even, health wise, with where we were in 1970?

"as opposed to a plasma screen with playstation today"

It would be an interesting psychology study to figure out if a kid with an Atari in the 1970s was objectively less happy and fulfilled than a kid with a plasma screen and playstation today. I suspect it is the relative excitement of being one of the first to get a game before your friends is a bigger factor. I guess it's a little late to start that study at this point, however.

My overall point is that I think comparing quality of life across eras is more complex than just comparing square footage, drug prices, and pixel counts. Unless I misunderstand your point.

Re: No, You can't retire rich at 30 if you sell your startup

#172

Post by megablast » Tue, Aug 24, 2010, 1:06 AM UTC

tocomment wrote: post #134

jerf wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Living frugally" isn't what it used to be in the pain department. I have a Netflix subscription for one DVD and unlimited streaming instead of a $70 cable subscription (or an expensive antenna for my area), and while I made this choice to be "frugal" in the end I've actually been happier than I was with the cable. Do you need a smartphone with unlimited Internet? I can't speak for you, but I'm almost always within r…

Any tips on finding a reliable, inexpensive car?

Live close to work, and cycle. You also get free exercise, feel better in the mornings, and now can travel lots of other places cheaply.

Re: No, You can't retire rich at 30 if you sell your startup

#173

Post by elai » Tue, Aug 24, 2010, 1:07 AM UTC

dstein wrote: post #101

thailandstartup wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About $35000 here in Thailand gives me a lifestyle that I think of as lavish and decadent, but I guess the OP would consider frugal and cautious. 120sqm condo beside the sea, eat out every night, tennis and language lessons. I could probably cut the budget down to around $20000 in a pinch and still live comfortably. The major downside is that there aren't many hackers about.

May I ask how you received a visa to stay there? I looked into Thailand but axed the idea when I could only get a 30-day visitor visa. Whereas Costa Rica lets you stay for 3 months before you need to cross the border to extend your visitor visa. And apparently obtaining a permanent residency isn't difficult if you can prove income from foreign sources.

Thailand is pretty relaxed. You can start a company with a thai friend who "hires" you and work there indefinitely. There are probably a few smart thais that already have that as a business. Property and companies must be majority thai owned, which may seem like it really sucks, but is actually pretty smart since keeps everything there significantly cheaper and more affordable for everybody.

Re: No, You can't retire rich at 30 if you sell your startup

#174

Post by jerf » Tue, Aug 24, 2010, 1:11 AM UTC

achompas wrote: post #114

tokenadult wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More to the point, of course, is how much you will have to work to have that number of nominal dollars.

Right. People are going crazy over the $500k number 40 years out but, in real dollars, that could easily convert to a middle-class wage today.

Actually, one of my (many) issues with political discourse today is that thanks to inflations, "the rich" has been defined down brutally over the past 30 to 40 years. Anyone currently making $250/year, yeah, if they're hurting it's their own damn fault for overreaching, but that is very rapidly becoming merely upper middle class. Meanwhile, neither our legal/tax nor our social definitions of "rich" are being updated at anywhere near the proper speed.

I recall somewhere seeing that if you take the term "millionaire" at the time that it was coined, it would today take 130 million to have that same level of wealth. I can't seem to scare up a reference, but it's at least broadly correct even if I'm off by 10 or 20%. If you don't retire a millionaire in 2030/2040 money, you're going to be in real trouble. You're probably in trouble if you retire merely as a millionaire.

Re: No, You can't retire rich at 30 if you sell your startup

#175

Post by elai » Tue, Aug 24, 2010, 1:11 AM UTC

zmmmmm wrote: post #163

thailandstartup wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About $35000 here in Thailand gives me a lifestyle that I think of as lavish and decadent, but I guess the OP would consider frugal and cautious. 120sqm condo beside the sea, eat out every night, tennis and language lessons. I could probably cut the budget down to around $20000 in a pinch and still live comfortably. The major downside is that there aren't many hackers about.

Aren't you concerned that there seems to be a coup every second week blockading the airport and then every other week someone is arrested for accidentally insulting the King? I'd feel a little edgy living their as a foreigner!

There has only been one airport blockage in history and three "coups" this decade, which is just political factions of elites fighting with each other in the background. Life goes on as normal for most of thailand, no matter if there is coup going on or not. The king thing is really nothing to worry about, you'd have to be really stupid to get in trouble for that.

Re: No, You can't retire rich at 30 if you sell your startup

#176

Post by elai » Tue, Aug 24, 2010, 1:12 AM UTC

thailandstartup wrote: post #117

itsalive wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how much does the condo rent cost you?

$900 p/m. Easy to cut back to $500 a month for a smaller place, or $300 to lose the view too, or $200 to lose the location too. You wouldn't want to go any lower than that though.

Where are you? You can get a nice 2 bedroom in phuket for $200.

Re: No, You can't retire rich at 30 if you sell your startup

#177

Post by jimbokun » Tue, Aug 24, 2010, 1:12 AM UTC

aswanson wrote: post #138

yummyfajitas wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A quick google search finds many links suggesting house sizes have gone way up. This one says 1500ft^2 in 1973, 2500ft^2 in 2006. http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2007032701?Ope... In spite of the purported declining income and increasing energy prices, people in 2007 have more and better material goods and services than in 1967, far more than the mere $10k increase in real incomes would predict. You cou…

There was a ridiculous downgrade in credit quality to facilitate that build out of McMansions over the last 10 years . A better analysis of how much real income and how much purchasing power per sq foot of home would have to take in credit quality/debt into account over time to be anywhere near informative. Secondly, increasing energy prices are not purported, they are real: http://www.eia.doe.gov/EMEU/steo/realprice…

That's an excellent visualization. Thanks for the link.

Re: No, You can't retire rich at 30 if you sell your startup

#178

Post by wonginator1221 » Tue, Aug 24, 2010, 1:21 AM UTC

The second major programming assignment I was given during my freshman year of college was a retirement calculator. Although the main goal of the assignment was to implement a interest compounding program, I believe my professor used this assignment to get us out of the get rich retire early mentality.

If I recall correctly, an average single person would need to save well over $1 million USD by retirement if they wanted to live comfortably for the next 10 years.

Re: No, You can't retire rich at 30 if you sell your startup

#179

Post by jimbokun » Tue, Aug 24, 2010, 1:29 AM UTC

brianobush wrote: post #148

kscaldef wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For my daughter, I spend about $100/mo on extracurricular activites, $25/mo (averaged over the year) on clothes, $50 once a year on school supplies, a $100 bike will last her for a couple years. Yeah, how do those plebes manage to raise kids with their pathetic 5-figure salaries...

Well, I wasn't saying it was impossible, just expensive. Also, I don't know where you live, but one child's extracurricular activities for me is ~400 (100 piano+100 TKD+100 kumon+100 math) and during the summer it is higher since they have camps to attend (since there are no crops to harvest). Once your daughter gets older, I guarantee your clothing costs will increase.

You say this as if there is a law requiring you to provide all of these services for your daughter, or Children and Youth Services will come and take her from you.

Re: No, You can't retire rich at 30 if you sell your startup

#180

Post by cageface » Tue, Aug 24, 2010, 2:10 AM UTC

elai wrote: post #167

cageface wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's exactly why I think trying to predict what the world is going to be like in 40 years is just about impossible. The only thing you can say with much confidence is that it's likely to be very different from the way it is today.

It will also stay very similar. The outline of life in the 1970s vs 2010 is still fairly similar. Drive around in cars, live in a house, take the subway, read the newspaper, watch tv, go to the movie theatre, buy food at a grocery store, call people on a landline, plug stuff into the wall, use your fridge and hair drier, drive around in your RV, fly an airplane at supersonic speeds, rent an apartment, have a family r…

It will also stay very similar. The outline of life in the 1970s vs 2010 is still fairly similar.

That's the entire point of this (sub)thread. Making predictions of the next 40 years based on the last 40 is likely to lead you astray. A whole bunch of things are coming to a head. Coming revolutions in biotech alone are likely to seriously shake things up, IMO.