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My new favorite book of all time

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Re: My new favorite book of all time

#391
post #388
post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, for centuries (millennia, actually) the pattern is the same. A social change movement is invariably viewed as having "gone too far", but in order to be perceived as reasonable, the critics invariably say that the previous generation was right. Don't get me wrong: movements certainly can and do go "too far"[1], but in about 100% of the cases, the political activism that has brought us where we are was viewed as h…

When it come to history I find most political movements to be wrong on both facts and interpretation. Take women's suffrage in the US for example and the relation to shortage in conscription at the end of world war 1. Following liberal writing there exist no relation. According to those writing the right to vote came through demonstrating and women empowering themselves. True or false? Should we interpret it as a vic…

> Should we interpret it as a victory for self empowerment or as a result of lack of soldiers during the last year of the biggest war the world had seen?

Clearly as the first. Women would not have gotten the vote without the suffrage movement, just as they didn't get it after the Civil War. However, the war had an effect on the timing, as is often the case with social change movements. They can go on for decades, and finally succeed when an external event forces the dominating powers' hands. No one would say that the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand was the cause of WWI. The alliance system was rigged to blow at the first spark, and that spark happened to be the assassination.

> Should we interpret it as men oppressing poor women or as a form plunder for profit by a religious institution that targeted those with something to take?

As medieval and early modern history was my focus in grad school, I must say that I have not seen the witch hunt described so simplistically by any professional historian that I've read, and they were relatively uncommon. Like most things in history, they were a result of a complex interaction of factors, but as is often the case, the powerful are rarely the victims of events of that sort, regardless of their complex causes.

> Personally I lean towards not trusting political movements when they write about history.

I wasn't talking about political writing but about scholarly or pseudo-scholarly works, and all writers have political leanings. Liberal writers tend to write history better than conservative ones.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#392
post #117

On this topic, I highly recommend watching 200 countries, 200 years, 4 minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo You see how wealth and health have changed over time. In particular you see that there is NO country today which is as badly off as EVERY country was 200 years ago. When you digest the truth of that, and look at it in terms of family stories, impact on society and so on, my impression is that we…

In particular you see that there is NO country today which is as badly off as EVERY country was 200 years ago. I tend to believe that this argument is generally true, but some researchers have argued that it is very sensitive to the specific endpoints chosen. In his preface to A Farewell to Arms , economist Greg Clark argues (about the world circa 2007): > "Prosperity, however, has not come to all societies. Material…

This is also true.

With relatively fixed technology, the human population tends to expand to the carrying capacity of the land.

Agriculture did not make life better. What it did is make that carrying capacity a LOT higher. At the cost of great increases in how much work was needed, risk of plague, and so on. This topic is covered in some detail in Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs and Steel.

When, as in the 1200s, the climate moved to increase that carrying capacity, life improved. When, as in the 1300s, climate made life harder, we had mass famine after mass famine (and by coincidence, also the Black Death).

Technology has increased the carrying capacity many-fold. And also changed the incentives for large families. We can look back and laugh about how wrong Malthus was, and say that it is clear in hindsight that the English should have ignored his analysis and intervened in the Irish Potato Famine back in the 1800s. But his theories were grounded in the universal truth of what life had been like in agricultural societies for thousands of years.

I wish all of this was more widely understood.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I work on criminal justice reform and this is SO true. I cringe every time I hear these kinds of stats being brandished without context as evidence of our society 'working'. Ben Thompson is a particularly bad example of this, but it certainly seems like it's the folks 'winning' the conflicts that love to cite 'reduced conflict'.

I'm a Ben Thompson reader / listener, and I'm not sure which of his arguments you're referring to, but I'm intrigued by the premise. Would you mind throwing out some links and further commentary on this?

Last week's (Friday, Jan 26) Exponent has a lot of this kind of conversation after his article about Amazon Go. Toward the end of the article is this gem [0]:

> In fact, they are all gone, replaced by automation. And, in the meantime, nearly all of humanity has been lifted out of abject poverty.

I think Ben is an incredibly intelligent and accurate commentator who constantly ignores the very real side-effects of tech on poverty and justice in favor of handwaving about potential side-effects of regulation that doesn't currently exist.

> Still, what of those companies that can’t afford to pay for zero rating — the future startups for which net neutrality advocates are willing to risk the costs of heavy-handed regulations? [1]

Meanwhile, 48% of America have only one broadband provider and 30% have no access to broadband at all [2]. Ben is scared of title II but strangely silent on the same cable companies he's so desperate to protect from scary scary 'regulation' spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to make municipal broadband in underserved locations illegal. [3]

All this being said, I am a frequent reader of stratechery, an exponent subscriber. I think Ben gets it right more often than not, but I often find that he goes out of his way to defend 'capitalism' in ways that seem antithetical to his other espoused beliefs.

All of his articles and their associated exponents on anti-trust take great pains to make the point that 'real capitalism' has competition [4,5,6]. He fails to address what, if 'real capitalism' means competition, our current economic situation is. Personally I'd describe myself as a socialist so perhaps this is just a pure idealogical divergence on our parts, but it seems like Ben is make the same arguments about capitalism that are so popular among people criticizing communism: "Sure, it works great on paper, but in practice it is an abject failure". I fail to see how Ben's points about capitalism and competition, which I agree with, are not the exact same critique of our current economic system.

Sorry for the long and late reply, this sort of just became a bit of an unstructured rant about all the things I yell at exponent in my car on the way home Friday evenings...

[0] https://stratechery.com/2018/amazons-go-and-the-future/

[1] [https://stratechery.com/2017/pro-neutrality-anti-title-ii/

[2] https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/08/us-br...

[3] https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2017/11/voters-reject-ca...

[4] https://stratechery.com/2017/ends-means-and-antitrust/

[5] https://stratechery.com/2017/facebook-and-the-cost-of-monopo...

[6] https://stratechery.com/2017/everything-is-changing-so-shoul...

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I share your frustration. Sometimes I feel like one of the few people who tries to act consistently. Most people are defecting in a massive prisoner's dilemma despite complaining about how defecting is bad! The suggestion that these apparently strongly held beliefs are actually about signaling doesn't seem to entirely square with my experience. Talk is cheap. One doesn't gain much credibility with me by just claiming…

> Sometimes I feel like one of the few people who tries to act consistently most people think they do.

I'm not confident enough to say that most think they do.

Consider global warming as an example. Almost no one I know who believes global warming to be a dire threat changes anything about their lifestyle in response. When I ask them about this they might say something about how it's really hard, people like Elon Musk will solve it, etc. Basically, it's not their responsibility. They often seem to want to get off this line of conversation as quickly as possible. And it's not that hard to do something. Eating less meat is easy. I commute by bike for other reasons already and I don't think doing this regularly would be a major problem for a large fraction of people in the US.

To continue on the global warming example, you will have people who will drive a hybrid or electric car today "for the environment", though these options are not carbon neutral at the moment (perhaps electric will be in the future). No major change to their lifestyle has been made. I can see how this is mostly about signaling, as many people do believe such things will make a difference right now, though I'm skeptical.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#395
post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somehow I knew you were going to lean on theism, I should have put that in my comment, oh well. Nuts to that. I live in the real world. The actual action of morality can have no basis except consensus. Biology is morality free as is physics. Even if you insist there's a "pure" moral law somewhere you still have to enforce it or it's a toothless theory. Then to enforce it you really have to get down to brass tacks and…

>The actual action of morality can have no basis except consensus. If we said this, what we'd be saying is roughly "what a society does in aggregate is based on what the majority of individuals in a society agree to do" (a tautology). >Biology is morality free as is physics. Exactly! Moral facts cannot be determined by empirical observation. If you limited yourself to empirical observation ("Empiricism") as you seem…

> Exactly! Moral facts cannot be determined by empirical observation.

I didn't say that at all. Moral facts can be (can only be) found by empirical observation. The observation of what PEOPLE ACTUALLY DO. Anything else is academic masturbation. Sure, you can ask people and take their answers with a grain of salt, but you'll be running around in tautological circle diving morals from ancient books or poetic 'truths'.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#396
post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The actual action of morality can have no basis except consensus. If we said this, what we'd be saying is roughly "what a society does in aggregate is based on what the majority of individuals in a society agree to do" (a tautology). >Biology is morality free as is physics. Exactly! Moral facts cannot be determined by empirical observation. If you limited yourself to empirical observation ("Empiricism") as you seem…

> Exactly! Moral facts cannot be determined by empirical observation. I didn't say that at all. Moral facts can be (can only be) found by empirical observation. The observation of what PEOPLE ACTUALLY DO . Anything else is academic masturbation. Sure, you can ask people and take their answers with a grain of salt, but you'll be running around in tautological circle diving morals from ancient books or poetic 'truths'.

> I didn't say that at all. Moral facts can be (can only be) found by empirical observation. The observation of what PEOPLE ACTUALLY DO.

That renders the “moral” part meaningless. What is moral is what people ought to do, irrespective of what they actually do. Now, you can argue that morality is a null concept, and thus “morsl facts” is necessarily an empty set (and if you start with a premise of strict materialism, this conclusion is inevitable; there is only “is”, no “ought”), but you can't coherently argue that moral facts both exist and can be determined by empirical observation of behavior.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a Ben Thompson reader / listener, and I'm not sure which of his arguments you're referring to, but I'm intrigued by the premise. Would you mind throwing out some links and further commentary on this?

Last week's (Friday, Jan 26) Exponent has a lot of this kind of conversation after his article about Amazon Go. Toward the end of the article is this gem [0]: > In fact, they are all gone, replaced by automation. And, in the meantime, nearly all of humanity has been lifted out of abject poverty. I think Ben is an incredibly intelligent and accurate commentator who constantly ignores the very real side-effects of tech…

This is a great reply! I consider myself far from a socialist, but have often had the same reaction to that argument about capitalism implying competition. Perhaps we draw different conclusions though: I conclude that this seems like a good framework for regulators to work within, ie. by writing regulations with an eye strongly toward fostering competition.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#398
post #391
post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When it come to history I find most political movements to be wrong on both facts and interpretation. Take women's suffrage in the US for example and the relation to shortage in conscription at the end of world war 1. Following liberal writing there exist no relation. According to those writing the right to vote came through demonstrating and women empowering themselves. True or false? Should we interpret it as a vic…

> Should we interpret it as a victory for self empowerment or as a result of lack of soldiers during the last year of the biggest war the world had seen? Clearly as the first. Women would not have gotten the vote without the suffrage movement, just as they didn't get it after the Civil War. However, the war had an effect on the timing, as is often the case with social change movements. They can go on for decades, and…

One could as easily interpret that the abolishment movements relation with the civil war has about as much validity as the relation between the first world war and the suffrage movement. I am not saying you are wrong, but that political writers tend to disregard facts and make interpretations that fits their views regardless if they are left or right, usually to the detriment of the truth.

> I have not seen the witch hunt described so simplistically

Out of all writing I have read, only two books that I recall described the witch hunts as complex causes rather than a simplistic prosecution of defenseless women. I see it so often in political texts I usually tick of a mental box when i see it.

When it comes to plundering, history don't seem to often show that its the most powerful in society that becomes victims. They can employ armies to defend themselves or buy enough influence to not become a target. Usually those that are targeted is those with resources to defend but that relies on social constructs for defense.

But to go back to the claim about liberal writers, I can recommend a book called Debt: The First 5000 Years. The author was involved with the occupy movement so not sure if that defines him as a liberal writer or not. What I found interesting in that book (outside of the overall focus on debt) is the description of bridge gifts, slavery and veils, each having a very different interpretation to common liberal views. Since the author is a professor of anthropology he also supports those interpretations with facts that usually missing when those subjects are being discussed in a historical perspective.

> Liberal writers tend to write history better than conservative ones.

It is very possible that liberal writers lie less and tend to be less intentional dishonest than conservative ones. Its a very different claim that liberal writers are usually right and conservative writers usually wrong.

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#399
post #398
post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Should we interpret it as a victory for self empowerment or as a result of lack of soldiers during the last year of the biggest war the world had seen? Clearly as the first. Women would not have gotten the vote without the suffrage movement, just as they didn't get it after the Civil War. However, the war had an effect on the timing, as is often the case with social change movements. They can go on for decades, and…

One could as easily interpret that the abolishment movements relation with the civil war has about as much validity as the relation between the first world war and the suffrage movement. I am not saying you are wrong, but that political writers tend to disregard facts and make interpretations that fits their views regardless if they are left or right, usually to the detriment of the truth. > I have not seen the witch…

> but that political writers tend to disregard facts and make interpretations that fits their views regardless if they are left or right, usually to the detriment of the truth.

All writers are political (I would hope all people) and there are many brilliant historians, some writing analyses that would appear contradictory to their stated views (my best professor was like that).

> simplistic prosecution of defenseless women

I find that hard to believe, as women were abused on a much larger scale before, during and after the witch trials. Defenseless women make easy targets, but I find it hard to believe that any historian would consider that an explanation. Women are so marginalized from all positions of power and are completely at the mercy of their fathers, brothers or husbands, but let's try just a few for being witches to drive the point home!?

Re: My new favorite book of all time

#400
post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, then I think we agree. My general take on Pinker's work is that to the extent that he's accurate, he's largely describing the impact of state power plus the benefits of prosperity. When he asks why murder is now so rare, the answer is a combination of "because if you murder you go to jail reliably" and "if someone wrongs you you call on the state". When he asks why Canada and Spain don't start a war over fishing…

> All of which is to say that I think we've solved some violence with sheer wealth, some with fear of the state, and perhaps very little with our "better angels". I think moral standards, at large, have certainly improved. The very concept of human rights, as understood today, was alien not so long ago. Same applies to concepts like presumption of innocence, equality before the law, equality of genders and ethiniciti…

> Peter Singer's concept of The Expanding Circle is relevant here.

That's a work I can support, definitely.

I don't mean to sound too cynical; it's easy to get caught up in presentism and forget that basic ideas like "what if racism is bad?" and "should we maybe stop doing torture?" are relatively recent.

My concern with Pinker is less that nothing has gotten better, and more that he seems overly rosy about the decline of violence (I worry we've largely displaced it and rendered it intermittent) and that he appears to frame moral progress as some kind of fundamental improvement in the moral nature of humans or society.

I'm much more inclined to Singer's argument, that we're the same semi-moral creatures we've always been, but have done steadily better at acknowledging the moral weight of groups other than our own.

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