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Once seniors are too old to drive, our transportation system fails them

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Re: Once seniors are too old to drive, our transportation system fails them

#301

Post by souprock »

Clubber wrote: post #279
austinjp wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a strange land. In the UK, I was using public transport and cycling to school by myself from the age of 16. I'm curious, are there large cities in the USA where this can happen? Are there any significant moves by politicians to wean North Americans off cars? Conversely, are there large cities in other countries that are similar to the US, where this does not happen? I'm going to suspect the Middle East, due to u…

It's because our news is completely unregulated and local news always spotlights and aggrandizes crimes and whatnot, so that the population is terrified of itself constantly. Obviously if people took the time to look at the crime statistics, the chances of being a victim of a crime is less than half of what it was when I walked a mile to elementary school every day.

For the oddball crimes, that is true. Kids aren't actually getting swiped off the streets.

For more normal crimes, the lifetime chance of being a crime victim is serious. For stranger-on-stranger violent crime, there is a total lifetime probability of about 5.3%.

You might think "oh that is just 5.3% so no big deal", but the chance of dying in a fire is only 0.09% and we still bother with smoke detectors.

Violent crime is a life-altering event. Given the potential for horrific consequences, it is reasonable to be concerned about the possibility. Transportation choices change that risk.

Re: Once seniors are too old to drive, our transportation system fails them

#302

Post by Retric »

btrettel wrote: post #300
Retric wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minor tranffic violoations are rarely an issue it's the big ones like: I can only think of a handful of times in my decade of cycling when a cyclist didn't check for oncoming traffic before going through a red light. which tend to kill people. Minor speeding (~15%) is not a significant hazard. Going through a red light is about as dangerous as doing ~50-100MPH over the speed limit which is very rare. Other things lik…

Well, my experience differs a lot, and I suspect I've seen at least an order of magnitude more cyclists than you have. I think it's a combination of selective attention and your experience with bike messengers that's potentially the problem. Bike messengers seem to be particularly impatient and more likely to violate the law to shave off a few seconds. Also could be the location. Of the cities I've spent non-negligib…

In terms of speeding stop lights are a floor function. Make the cut and save 2 minutes fail and lose 2 minutes. You only see cases where they lose that bet, but it's just a numbers game.

As to speeding, we have actual data on this stuff. So it's easy to demonstrate the risks are very low directly from accident rates vs # of speeders. The risk of early death vs time saved actually favors doing 5MPH over the speed limit on highways.

As to personal experience I only have ~45,000 cyclists which may be high or low. But it feels like a very large number.

PS: People try any justify their behavior, but statistically bike riders regularly risk death.

Re: Once seniors are too old to drive, our transportation system fails them

#303

Post by smileysteve »

adrianN wrote: post #152
souprock wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On public transit, wouldn't you be unusually vulnerable to crime? Why would you want a service that isn't safe for you?

What an American comment to make. Public transit works in many cities perfectly well and you can use it without fearing for your life, or your wallet. Children in elementary school take public transit unattended.

As a note, in Atlanta, both private and public middle school children take marta often.

Re: Once seniors are too old to drive, our transportation system fails them

#304

Post by palimpsests »

eeZah7Ux wrote: post #212

Please replace "our" with "US" when submitting on HN. Not everybody lives in US.

It's just the title of the article, and yes, I think all or most people here are well aware of the fact that not everybody lives in the US.

When I saw it, I didn't know what "our" referred to, until I read it - I didn't assume that the use of this word necessarily implied it had anything to do with my arbitrary country / community / culture / etc.

Re: Once seniors are too old to drive, our transportation system fails them

#305

Post by btrettel »

Retric wrote: post #302
btrettel wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, my experience differs a lot, and I suspect I've seen at least an order of magnitude more cyclists than you have. I think it's a combination of selective attention and your experience with bike messengers that's potentially the problem. Bike messengers seem to be particularly impatient and more likely to violate the law to shave off a few seconds. Also could be the location. Of the cities I've spent non-negligib…

In terms of speeding stop lights are a floor function. Make the cut and save 2 minutes fail and lose 2 minutes. You only see cases where they lose that bet, but it's just a numbers game. As to speeding, we have actual data on this stuff. So it's easy to demonstrate the risks are very low directly from accident rates vs # of speeders. The risk of early death vs time saved actually favors doing 5MPH over the speed limi…

I hope you don't take this the wrong way. My goal is to convince drivers that cyclists are not as bad as they think they are and that they should drive safer.

> You only see cases where they lose that bet, but it's just a numbers game.

I don't follow. Seeing both is pretty easy; they drive away. What I question is that the 2 minutes that one saves at most (likely closer to 15 seconds or so on average) is worth the extra risk to other road users. The asymmetry is the problem. You say cyclists regularly risk death, and sure, they do, though the risk is probably lower than you suspect, and drivers risk death too. A large fraction of cyclist deaths occur late at night with a drunk cyclist; remove those factors and your risk is a lot lower. For someone like me who goes out of my way to ride safely, my main (perhaps only) risk on the road is bad drivers, who are by large tolerated or encouraged by western society.

> As to speeding, we have actual data on this stuff. So it's easy to demonstrate the risks are very low directly from accident rates vs # of speeders.

The NTSB says speeding contributes to about 10,000 fatalities per year in the US:

https://www.ntsb.gov/news/events/Pages/2017-DCA15SS002.aspx

Doesn't sound low to me. Maybe it seems low when you compare against how frequently people speed, but that's a red herring as far as I'm concerned. It's unlikely you'll die while smoking any particular cigarette, but clearly the net effects of smoking at significant. I focus on the net effects. I don't think the time the speeders save justifies the life lost, even neglecting those disabled, etc. As I said, I think speeding provides mostly psychological benefit.

> As to personal data I only have ~45,000 cyclists which may be high or low. But it feels like a very large number.

You have seen about 45,000 individual cyclists on the road? I find that hard to believe. That's comparable to the total number of transportation cyclists in Austin. For comparison, I suspect I've seen at least several thousand individual cyclists on the road. If I see only two new cyclists on the road per day I'll see about 7000 after 10 years. Seems reasonable to me.

Re: Once seniors are too old to drive, our transportation system fails them

#306

Post by souprock »

dundercoder wrote: post #182
souprock wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On public transit, wouldn't you be unusually vulnerable to crime? Why would you want a service that isn't safe for you?

If you’re referring to me being more of a target, my experience has been the opposite. I have found that I’m generally given a very wide berth when I have my white cane out. Often people hold doors for me too. I have a suspicion that most would-be criminals have a concept of karma and fear that robbing a blind person would bring lots of extra bad luck to their table.

Yes, you seem like more of a target.

It looks like you've decided the risk is worthwhile. I hope your luck holds. I think I'd be completely terrified. I found big cities scary even when I was a strong/fast 20-year-old male.

Re: Once seniors are too old to drive, our transportation system fails them

#307

Post by nitwit005 »

sevensor wrote: post #67

My 96-year-old grandmother has macular degeneration in her eyes and neuropathy reducing sensation in her feet. She can neither see the road very well nor feel the pedals accurately. The state of Florida just renewed her license for six more years. I'd say it's irresponsible of her to keep up the license, except she has no options. The town she's in recently made it illegal for residents of her park to drive their ele…

Even if we want to preserve people's independence, we all tend to go blind (and deaf) eventually. As people get older, there will inevitably be a larger population that needs to be driven.

Re: Once seniors are too old to drive, our transportation system fails them

#308

Post by lozenge »

lgas wrote: post #60
jseliger wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people push for rail Visit Japan (or these days China) and you will understand. This reminds me of people who say, "What's the big deal about electric bikes?" Ride one and you'll know. See what Japan and China are doing WRT rail and you'll know.

Given the difficulty and expense associated with going to Japan, perhaps you could describe it to us here using words.

When you are driving, you're, well, driving. Most of your mental capacity is on the task at hand. The remaining capacity drifts from subject to subject with nothing to anchor it - no note taking, very limited communicating. Your basic needs (mental rest, hydration, toilet) are pushed to a rest stop schedule. Every stop sign, right on red, or on ramp is a new negotiation. Even choosing your music is a big task leading you to settle for the radio.

In a train you're simply transported sitting down. You can text, have a face to face conversation, look out the window, go to the toilet, buy reasonably priced drinks, read or work as you fancy. The occasional change between trains is a stronger punctuation in your journey than your car leaving the freeway, and still only requires a few minutes of cursory attention every now and then.

Edit: I didn't even mention the timing aspect! In Japan you could get the same train every day and arrive on time every day. Commute on the roads and you will always be wondering when exactly you will get to work/home and what you will do with the little random slither of spare or lost time. Of course, the accelerator pedal is right there so you always have the option to drive a bit more aggressively, so you will consider it every now and then, rather than thinking about something more meaningful to your life.

Re: Once seniors are too old to drive, our transportation system fails them

#309

Post by emj »

Retric wrote: post #302
btrettel wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, my experience differs a lot, and I suspect I've seen at least an order of magnitude more cyclists than you have. I think it's a combination of selective attention and your experience with bike messengers that's potentially the problem. Bike messengers seem to be particularly impatient and more likely to violate the law to shave off a few seconds. Also could be the location. Of the cities I've spent non-negligib…

In terms of speeding stop lights are a floor function. Make the cut and save 2 minutes fail and lose 2 minutes. You only see cases where they lose that bet, but it's just a numbers game. As to speeding, we have actual data on this stuff. So it's easy to demonstrate the risks are very low directly from accident rates vs # of speeders. The risk of early death vs time saved actually favors doing 5MPH over the speed limi…

> People try any justify their behavior, but statistically bike riders regularly risk death.

The story about the dangerous jaywalker and bicyclists is a big falsehood if you look at the data. As I said; cyclists have the same behaviour than others have in traffic. The truth is that cyclists live longer, even with all the risky behaviour you think cylists are prone to.

The thing that is risky is spending ones life in a car, on so many levels. You refrase things so it seems like cyclists are to blame for being killed by cars when we know that is actually not the case. Just because the party line today is that jaywalkers and cyclists are worse than others doesn't mean there is any actualy evidence for it.

Re: Once seniors are too old to drive, our transportation system fails them

#310

Post by emj »

btrettel wrote: post #305
Retric wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of speeding stop lights are a floor function. Make the cut and save 2 minutes fail and lose 2 minutes. You only see cases where they lose that bet, but it's just a numbers game. As to speeding, we have actual data on this stuff. So it's easy to demonstrate the risks are very low directly from accident rates vs # of speeders. The risk of early death vs time saved actually favors doing 5MPH over the speed limi…

I hope you don't take this the wrong way. My goal is to convince drivers that cyclists are not as bad as they think they are and that they should drive safer. > You only see cases where they lose that bet, but it's just a numbers game. I don't follow. Seeing both is pretty easy; they drive away. What I question is that the 2 minutes that one saves at most (likely closer to 15 seconds or so on average) is worth the ex…

> A large fraction of cyclist deaths occur late at night with a drunk cyclist

In single accident deaths at night with only a cyclist this is actually the most common case (70%-90%). In deadly accidents between car and bicycle it's not very common for the cyclist to be drunk about the same as always.

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