Live data from Hacker News

“The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

scientificamerican.com

91–100 of 108 posts

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have there been studies that show the masks are effective? I'm just curious is all not trying to knock you down.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/face-masks-flu/ > McDevitt and his colleagues screened 89 volunteers, 37 of whom tested positive for the flu and were asked to provide exhaled breath samples with and without a surgical mask. Among the volunteers, 43% exhaled large influenza-containing particles while not wearing a mask, compared to 11% while wearing a mask; 92% exhaled small influenza-containing particles w…

I've heard (and seen) that in JP, people wear masks to protect other people from sickness. That said, I don't think I've seen an example of a debilitatingly sick person wearing a mask; only their caregivers wear masks. A seriously sick person has no ability to receive the training and certification to wear an N95 mask.

Besides infected people are contagious before they're symptomatic so no one would know to suggest they wear a mask. Early warning nasal swab? Pillow mounted HEPA filter? I'm not sure we know about enough about transmission to really understand how to prevent it...

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/face-masks-flu/ > McDevitt and his colleagues screened 89 volunteers, 37 of whom tested positive for the flu and were asked to provide exhaled breath samples with and without a surgical mask. Among the volunteers, 43% exhaled large influenza-containing particles while not wearing a mask, compared to 11% while wearing a mask; 92% exhaled small influenza-containing particles w…

I've heard (and seen) that in JP, people wear masks to protect other people from sickness. That said, I don't think I've seen an example of a debilitatingly sick person wearing a mask; only their caregivers wear masks. A seriously sick person has no ability to receive the training and certification to wear an N95 mask. Besides infected people are contagious before they're symptomatic so no one would know to suggest t…

"A seriously sick person has no ability to receive the training and certification to wear an N95 mask." What does that mean?

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#94
post #36

Personal anecdata about this flu season. I got the flu shot. My spouse did not. They ended up getting the full-blown flu with 103 degree fever and a positive flu test at the doctor. I, on the other hand, felt kind of crappy but I wasn't knocked on my feet and my temperature was normal the whole time. I asked our doctor if I essentially had a milder version of the flu because I got the shot and he said that was basica…

> My spouse did not. They … I asked our doctor if I essentially had a milder version of the flu because I got the shot and he Odd, I would have thought you'd be more familiar with the gender of your spouse than that of your doctor grin

Can we stipulate that you object to a certain gender-neutral singular pronoun so that you'll please stop making unsubstantive posts about it, like we've already asked? It's so tedious.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14217345

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The catch to this is there is substantial reason to believe that non-exposure can actually make you more subsceptible later on Don't flu shots work by giving you a mini-flu?

Only the nasal spray flu vaccines contain live virus. The CDC is recommending against the nasal spray this season, so chances are you'll get a shot, which contains only dead virus, which can't cause anything you'd describe as "mini flu" as a result. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.ht...

The nasal vaccine has been deprecated for a long time now, I'm not sure you can get it anywhere ATM.

The flu shot seems to put me a bit under the weather for a couple of days after I get it. I don't have the flu, but I'm not 100% either.

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#96
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The catch to this is there is substantial reason to believe that non-exposure can actually make you more subsceptible later on, so it’s better to just get the flu to stay on pace with antigens for future strains.

Does the flu vaccine count as exposure?

that is exactly what the vaccine is. exposure to a inactivated flu virus.

then, lots of research and crossed fingers that hope any flu's you are exposed to are the ones that you vaccinated against.

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#97
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"Even though the vaccine isn't that effective this year, as long as its at least somewhat effective in mitigating transmission, it's worth it" How can you tell if something is "worth it" without considering any costs (side effects, price, time, etc)?

You should consider costs. This tradeoff is a large part of what the field of epidemiology studies. Turns out vaccines don't need to be that effective to be worthwhile, because of the way disease spreads. There's this concept of a "reproduction number" (r-naught) that predicts how many people a given infected person will pass the disease to, based on a combination of the virulence of a disease, how long infected peop…

>"The flu often has a value of around 2, meaning the average infected person will infect two others before they're over it."

The R0 value refers to the potential for infection (ie in a 100% susceptible population it would be what you wrote).

>"But on a society-wide basis, if every person were vaccinated, that would effectively knock the R0 value from 2 to 1, which is huge. Transmission is exponential: if you infect two people and they infect two people and they infect two people, etc., the total number of infected looks dramatically different than if everybody only infects one person."

I just wrote a little SIR model and did not see this behavior. Depending on the parameters either 100% of the susceptible population was eventually infected, the infection died out quickly, or, if turnover was high enough (eg birth/death/viral mutation leading to a constant stream of susceptibles), there was a cycle and about the same number of people got infected either way.

Do you have a source for this behavior so I can see the details of the model?

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#98
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"The insurance company is trying to SAVE expenditures of doctors and hospitalization" Interesting point (not sure how far down a rabbit hole this can go...), so you are claiming that the introduction of flu shots has reduced insurance costs? Is it even possible to assess this or are there just too many confounds?

Just did a quick google https://www.news-medical.net/news/20110614/Universal-influen...

That model is from 2011 and it looks like they made some predictions. How accurate did it turn out?

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#99
post #84
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's an hypothesis, which conceptually makes sense though not sure how proven it is, about why flu season is Jan/Feb - March/April. Basically during Fall as the amount of sunlight drops our bodies vitamin D, for which there is clinical evidence that it helps with immunity, drops leaving us more susceptible to infections leading to the overall flu season starting in Jan/Feb time frame. As the sunlight picks up, vit…

Do you have more info about that hypothesis? I always thought that the usual explanation was simply that people are inside buildings and cars (and thus around other people) more often when it is colder outside.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/releases/51913.php

Re: “The Problem Child of Seasonal Flu”: Beware This Winter’s Virus

#100
post #87
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One strange thing about this thread is all the people equating the net cost to the insurance company with the cost to themselves. I don't normally come across that attitude, usually the insurance company is perceived as an adversary you need to fight to get the deserved coverage.

The world is more complex than that. Many (probably every) large organization/industry does both good and bad things. Insurance, ultimately, is a way of sharing risk. Even more abstractly, it is about aligning interests. I think this is one part of why people get so upset with insurance when there is dispute - it feels a little like a betrayal.

I'm not really talking about health insurance in the abstract, but rather the current implementation (which seems very shady to many people).

I doubt current insurance companies care whether you get the flu or not. They just care whether you go to the doctor for it, eg if enough people think "It must be a cold" and self-medicate that works for them.

Post reply on HN