Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger • Hacker News Board

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#271

Post by DennisP » Wed, Jan 17, 2018, 2:01 AM UTC

FabHK wrote: post #205

DennisP wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the price of any currency is proportional to GDP/velocity, and since it's costly to exchange cryptocurrency with fiat, there's a limit to how high the velocity can go.

The quantity of money is proportional to nominal GDP/velocity (in the quantity theory of money). This doesn't tell you anything about the "price of a currency" in another currency, ie the exchange rate.

So you're claiming that if Bitcoin did $1 trillion dollars worth of transactions in a year, and people held it for a year on average, that wouldn't necessarily imply a total value for all bitcoins of $1 trillion?

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#272

Post by ximeng » Wed, Jan 17, 2018, 2:07 AM UTC

brucephillips wrote: post #236

rootusrootus wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that absolutely could explain it, except for one detail -- only bitcoin has an arbitrary 21 million coin limit. So making the argument that bitcoin is kinda like gold is implying that bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency. Is there a good argument here that first-mover advantage will be enough to ensure that bitcoin remains the only viable cryptocurrency? Because if not, then the $1T theoretical market value has to…

I'm not sure, but I think it's possible that BTC runs away with it. The value of BTC, much like the value of gold, is due to network effects. That's the only reason AFAICT that gold is ~60x more valuable than silver.

http://about.ag/debate.htm There’s lots of reasons

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#273

Post by dk8996 » Wed, Jan 17, 2018, 2:18 AM UTC

brucephillips wrote: post #197

agorabinary wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is naive of Buffet when his only evidence of a "bad ending" is the existence of a massive rally. The entire near-future automated economy depends on programmable money. There is literally nothing interesting happening in FinTech right now apart from the crypto space.

Fiat currency is already programmable.

How so?

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#274

Post by bduerst » Wed, Jan 17, 2018, 2:19 AM UTC

cantrip wrote: post #134

omegaworks wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good to know, what is it based upon? I know you can spend coin to prioritize a transaction, is it formulaic?

No, why are you making claims such as Bitcoin is the new Beanie Babies when you have literally no idea how any of it works?

You don't have to be a carpenter to know if a house is built poorly, just if you try to describe the cause. They were right in their criticism of transaction fees, but were off in what was causing it.

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#275

Post by bduerst » Wed, Jan 17, 2018, 2:25 AM UTC

brucephillips wrote: post #269

philipov wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will simply point out that at every opportunity, I have been upfront about what definitions I am adopting and the distinctions I am attempting to make, while you have done nothing but dissemble and create ambiguity, without offering a positive program of your own. I will leave it up to other readers to make their own conclusions.

If I say "the sky is brown", am I being up front that I'm defining "brown" to be the color of the sky?

This comment thread has been one of the weirdest internet arguments on the semantics of a word that I've seen in a while.

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#276

Post by dk8996 » Wed, Jan 17, 2018, 2:50 AM UTC

perseusprime11 wrote: post #130

agorabinary wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is naive of Buffet when his only evidence of a "bad ending" is the existence of a massive rally. The entire near-future automated economy depends on programmable money. There is literally nothing interesting happening in FinTech right now apart from the crypto space.

“entire near-future automated economy depends on programmable money” It also depends on banks and states signing up to that vision. We have seen zero adoption on that front. On top of that, it still does not explain the hundreds of alt coins.

Hundreds of coins and hundreds of tokens. This is the growth phase for crypto, people are trying out new things. Some of these coins and tokens will not be here in 5 - 10 years and some will be used every day by all of us.

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#277

Post by mythrwy » Wed, Jan 17, 2018, 3:10 AM UTC

philipov wrote: post #244

brucephillips wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The impossibility of separating the two concepts necessitates two different words for those concepts? That's a contradiction.

The concepts are easy to separate: Investment is symbiotic, Speculation is parasitic. Having clear concepts is more important when the real-world examples are complicated.

Speculation isn't necessarily parasitic at all. For example it can function in assuming risk.

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#278

Post by corbett3000 » Wed, Jan 17, 2018, 4:04 AM UTC

sytelus wrote: post #167

I have been trying to figure out eventual equilibrium price of BitCoin and here is one approach: Due to wealth inequality, we assume that majority of the crypto investment would be from ultra-rich. It might become quite normal for them to invest 1% of their wealth in crypto for uncorrelated diversification. In a way this is very similar to buying art which probably doesn't have much utility except among other wealthy…

1% of $10T is $100B. Add $100B younge BTC upper bound at $9,523.

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#279

Post by Phlarp » Wed, Jan 17, 2018, 4:21 AM UTC

celticninja wrote: post #209

jstarfish wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not true, it's a very savvy move. You're gambling with someone else's money-- credit card debt can be discharged in bankruptcy. You don't lose your house or your shirt, and the only real consequence is poor credit for a few years. And if bitcoin goes up? Pay it off, keep the profits...you still win.

In a bankruptcy that was for personal debt such as credit cards surely your house as an asset can be sold in the event of a bankruptcy?

Perfect play for the van dwelling SV crowd (or renters anywhere). What are they going to put a lien on when the most expensive thing you own is a macbook pro?

Re: Bitcoin Fall Extends to 25% as Fears of Crackdown Linger

#280

Post by Mandatum » Wed, Jan 17, 2018, 5:02 AM UTC

FabHK wrote: post #212

KasianFranks wrote: post #22

Time to buy. Down from what price since January? Cryptocurrency is a long term play from a software and financial engineering vantage. It also continues to irritate the hell out of banks (bank accounts are being closed and restricted from exchange transfers, including coinbase) and general investors. It's not liquid enough yet, creates no need for middle men and Bitcoin itself is now being manipulated by futures cont…

> irritate the hell out of banks (bank accounts are being closed and restricted from exchange transfers, including coinbase) It irritates banks not, by the way, because they're oh so scared about this fantastic new competitor to "their" money and money related businesses, but because it's often used (when it's used) for illegal transactions.

I think it decentralizes account fees, lending, term deposits, funds, everything. It turns the traditional banking model on its head because anyone can "become a bank" and handle the traditional "keep your money safe" model that banking was originally created for. Those getting paid for transactions will be those investing in the network infrastructure - which is also decentralized, because again - anyone can jump in and do it.

The only downside to it all is if whoever handles your "account" (or wallet) is breached, or someone steals your "money".

Right now - no one will insure it. It'll come, and when it does - it'll likely be decentralized again, because that's entirely possible - throw 1% of your "account" into "insurance" and suddenly everyone is paying for their own insurance and third-party investigations into claims. That in itself will be heavily regulated by the companies running it, and I think the lower the fee - the more information they'll want from users.