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Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

nytimes.com

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Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#161

Post by replicatorblog »

v64 wrote: post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

My main issue with the blockchain hype is the inability of its proponents to explain what the future landscape will look like. Twenty years from now, what will the top three benefits of widespread blockchain adoption be? It shouldn't be that hard to offer concrete descriptions:

In 1984, middle managers at Sears and AT&T were able to accurately predict how we'd use the internet in 2014.

In 1999 a now-defunct ISP explained how Netflix streaming would work.

https://hackernoon.com/what-14-tv-commercials-from-the-dot-c...

When I talk to crypto folks, I rarely get any predictions to this level of fidelity. There's a lot of talk about "Sovereign Individuals" and the decline of the US dollar as global reserve currency, but very little in the way of intermediate steps. How about this as a starter:

Which will be the first public tech company to cite a blockchain project as the reason for a missed quarterly profit target? Is it Filecoin pinching Amazon? If not, who?

I don't doubt that I'm missing something, but it seems like many are overly-concerned about joining the litany of Luddites:

"Everything that can be invented, has been invented!"

"There's a world market for five computers!"

"Apple's not just gonna walk into the phone market!"

That they've checked their critical thinking faculties.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#162

Post by jhwang5 »

lazerpants wrote: post #155
jhwang5 wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, except, personal computers didn't have negative side effects like raising funds illegally outside of investor production regulations (icos) or facilitating dark web trade.

Actually, neither ICOs nor dark web trade would be possible without personal computers.

Right, and personal computers would not be possible without the invention of metallurgy.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#163

Post by v64 »

replicatorblog wrote: post #161
v64 wrote: post #108

It's strange to me how there are many among the Hacker News crowd who can read an article like this and have doubts about its thesis. You lived through the 80s and 90s right? I can't count how many times in my life I was told no one would ever need a computer in their house, we've gotten along for decades just fine without them. No one will ever buy books online, that's ridiculous, you can go to the store and have on…

My main issue with the blockchain hype is the inability of its proponents to explain what the future landscape will look like. Twenty years from now, what will the top three benefits of widespread blockchain adoption be? It shouldn't be that hard to offer concrete descriptions: In 1984, middle managers at Sears and AT&T were able to accurately predict how we'd use the internet in 2014. In 1999 a now-defunct ISP expla…

From a fintech perspective, I'll make a thirty year prediction that blockchains will be used to reduce costs associated with third party clearinghouses and auditing firms by strengthening assurances that data hasn't been manipulated while reducing the amount of staff necessary to carry out the required verifications.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#164

Post by DenisM »

jhwang5 wrote: post #154
DenisM wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But gambling is a real-world use case. There is plenty of real-world illegal activities that benefit from bitcoin, and they can all deal just fine with high transaction fees, delays, volatility, etc.

According to your logic, pretty much any illegal activity will - by definition - have real world use cases, and should be permissible.

No. I did not say anything about permissibility, only about utility.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#165

Post by ACow_Adonis »

iamwil wrote: post #131
bigdubs wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure the parallels are as strong as you're making them out to be; there are deep, deep flaws with proof of work as a concept because of the energy consumed. There will probably be a better end state for distributed trust, but we're legitimately not there yet.

Proof of Stake is already on the horizon for 2018 for Ethereum.

Is it just me, or do people keep staying "proof of stake" as an answer to the proof of work concept, when it's not even a given that such a thing is a feature as opposed to completely undesired?

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#166

Post by gamblor956 »

v64 wrote: post #119
bigdubs wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure the parallels are as strong as you're making them out to be; there are deep, deep flaws with proof of work as a concept because of the energy consumed. There will probably be a better end state for distributed trust, but we're legitimately not there yet.

> there are deep, deep flaws with proof of work as a concept because of the energy consumed What is the energy consumption of all the bank offices and computer systems in the world? Even without this comparison, I think the amount of energy required is not a flaw in itself, but rather an aspect of the technology we should seek to improve upon (for instance, proof of stake is an attempt at this). I don't think it's su…

If reports are to be believed, the entire sum total of energy consumed by banks, credit card processors, their computer systems, offices, and personnel...is dwarfed by the amount of energy wasted on Bitcoin alone.

Banks and credit card processors can handle billions of transactions per day. Bitcoin, ethereum, and the other cryptocurrencies struggle to handle a few thousand, and are technologically incapable of non-linear scaling.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#167

Post by DenisM »

v64 wrote: post #163
replicatorblog wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My main issue with the blockchain hype is the inability of its proponents to explain what the future landscape will look like. Twenty years from now, what will the top three benefits of widespread blockchain adoption be? It shouldn't be that hard to offer concrete descriptions: In 1984, middle managers at Sears and AT&T were able to accurately predict how we'd use the internet in 2014. In 1999 a now-defunct ISP expla…

From a fintech perspective, I'll make a thirty year prediction that blockchains will be used to reduce costs associated with third party clearinghouses and auditing firms by strengthening assurances that data hasn't been manipulated while reducing the amount of staff necessary to carry out the required verifications.

Do you know much about those things? It'd be great if you could elaborate.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#168

Post by donkeyd »

cryptofyodor wrote: post #30
nacho2sweet wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No I am not tired of keeping my uniformed friends scared and their money safe.

Well, I think it's more proper to inform and educate friends and people instead of scarring them. For me what SEC and regulators in majority of other countries are doing is scarring people (with all the warnings) - I'd find education more effective.

Every time theres a crypto for which I can explain why the value makes no sense, there's another ten that pop up that are the next big thing, which they 'researched'. There's no way to keep up with this stuff.

Just the fact that a tweet from John McAfee can push a crypto up over 100% is reason for me to stay away from that stuff. Too much manipulation and FOMO going on.

I'd consider investing in a regulated crypto IPO though, if there's serious due diligence and a product that's actually being used.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#169

Post by v64 »

DenisM wrote: post #158
v64 wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you didn't get that right at all. Doubt and skepticism are inherent parts of creating new ideas, and at no point did I express that the people who are skeptical are wrong. Rather, I am surprised to see comments on a technical website like Hacker News that are treating the long, drawn out development of cryptocurrencies and blockchains as something that is completely different than the long, drawn out development…

So your point is that some technologies take a lot longer to mature than average, for example {some examples}, and the delay itself should not be held against such late-blooming technologies. I'm onboard with that. Although your argument may benefit from better phrasing, because it actually does come across like that, which is a disservice to your advocacy effort. Back on topic, I don't see a lot of people in this th…

> I'm onboard with that. Although your argument may benefit from better phrasing, because it actually does come across like that, which is a disservice to your advocacy effort.

In the end I'm just a programmer, not an essayist :) I appreciate the feedback.

> So where is the potential? What is the use case?

I work in fintech and can speak firsthand about the potential use of this technology to reduce costs and reliance on third party auditing firms. I think people focus too much on cryptocurrencies just like people focus too much on AOL and Geocities. Those services weren't the internet, and cryptocurrency isn't the only use of blockchains. If anything, I would love for the shitcoin frenzy to die down so our efforts can be focused toward more useful/less scammy uses of the technology.

Re: Beyond the Bitcoin bubble

#170

Post by lazerpants »

acdha wrote: post #17
vthallam wrote: post #3

This was a necessary phase. Mass adoption couldn't have been achieved without the exponential price rise of various cryptocurrency tokens. There would not have been media coverage of this proportion, had it not been for the gains. People now talk cryptocurrency, read more about the underlying technology and accept that it will positively affect the industry in the upcoming future. I hope the market stabilizes and som…

> Mass adoption couldn't have been achieved without the exponential price rise of various cryptocurrency tokens. Has mass adoption really happened? Yes, speculation is in the news but compare that to the frequency with which you hear anyone talk about using Bitcoin instead of cash or a credit card: the bubble inflating has actually reduced those already low numbers since it's driven transaction costs through the roof…

If we do see something coming out of this, I think it will be based on the interests of programmers who are just learning to code, who are excited about blockchain and see new uses for it. For some young kids out there, discovering cryptocurrency is probably like discovering Gopher or MP3 piracy for the first time.

I guess we'll see in a few years when younger people have moved into the programming space as professionals.

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