Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017 • Hacker News Board

Re: Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017

#71

Post by hueving » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 8:39 PM UTC

clairity wrote: post #41

awwstn wrote: post #36

From Lyft's report: > We surveyed 30,000 passengers and 37,000 drivers in 52 major cities. I suspect they may have done some generous extrapolation here...(e.g. "0.1% of the 30,000 Lyft passengers we surveyed got rid of their cars for ridesharing, so 0.1% of the U.S. population must have ditched cars for ridesharing")

you've thrown suspicion on the study without any reasoning behind it. unless your population size is small, all studies extrapolate results. why do you think it's incorrect? for example, maybe the 52 cities they surveyed aren't representative of the whole population (this can be true if they chose the 52 largest cities rather than a random sampling of cities). give your comment some meat to chew on.

Are you serious? Sampling Lyft riders for an life choice that makes them a Lyft rider absolutely would not extrapolate to the US population.

It's like sampling people in an airport to get stats on how often everyone flies.

Re: Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017

#72

Post by paxy » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 8:39 PM UTC

birdman3131 wrote: post #43

I don't get how using lyft/uber as your only form of transportation can be at all cheaper. Let me run some basic math. Uber wants $11.50 to take me home right now. Lyft wants $13.40 $11.50 * 2 = $23/day 23 * 5 = $115/week $115 * 52 weeks = $5980/year (I am ignoring vacation weeks for now.) My yearly cost for car ownership are roughly as follows. (Assuming only work and back.) Insurance(1): $886/year Fuel(2): $292.50…

Those numbers are going to be very different for different people depending on their situation, especially if they live in a dense metropolitan area. When I owned a car parking costs alone justified a move to Uber/Lyft.

I now use commuter dollars and Uber Pool for daily commute (~$5 each way before tax savings).

Plus most people rely on a combination of Uber/Lyft, public transit, bike shares, car rentals etc. rather than a single option.

Re: Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017

#73

Post by jonknee » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 8:39 PM UTC

blakesterz wrote: post #12

So there's something like 260+ million [1] vehicles registered here in 2015. That 250k number seems like an impossibly high percentage of people that have given up on owning a car because of ride sharing apps. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicle...

Well that number includes work vehicles, non daily-drivers, collectables, etc. A better place to start would be a survey of how many adults have their own dedicated vehicle.

Re: Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017

#74

Post by rconti » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 8:40 PM UTC

tgarv wrote: post #46

birdman3131 wrote: post #43

I don't get how using lyft/uber as your only form of transportation can be at all cheaper. Let me run some basic math. Uber wants $11.50 to take me home right now. Lyft wants $13.40 $11.50 * 2 = $23/day 23 * 5 = $115/week $115 * 52 weeks = $5980/year (I am ignoring vacation weeks for now.) My yearly cost for car ownership are roughly as follows. (Assuming only work and back.) Insurance(1): $886/year Fuel(2): $292.50…

So you're using your own time to repair these cars to keep the cost down, which is totally fine, but I think it's unfair to not count some of that time as a "cost" of owning the car in your model. Also, do you not have to pay for parking anywhere? What about time spent finding parking (again, may not be an issue, but it certainly would be time-consuming and expensive where I live and work).

I think the $1000/yr for maintenance cited is way more than enough to cover it.

Re: Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017

#75

Post by bllguo » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 8:42 PM UTC

ajb wrote: post #37

Correlation != Causation. I moved to a city and sold my car, and shortly after used ride sharing for the first time. But I don't use it much and it certainly didn't cause me to sell it. I wouldn't be surprised of that's just how many of their customers recently moved to a city.

What a tiresome rebuttal, I'm sure Lyft's army of statisticians and data scientists managed to somehow overlook STAT 101.

Re: Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017

#76

Post by grey-area » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 8:42 PM UTC

vlozko wrote: post #39

brndnmtthws wrote: post #20

Automobile ownership is dumb, but ridesharing isn't the answer either. Cities need to invest in public infrastructure, especially fast efficient public transit. People should also rediscover the joy of human power (walk, bike, run).

That's the bubble mentality of someone who lives in the city and/or doesn't have a family. How about you try hauling a baby in a stroller, diaper bag, and two other kids to a metro train (if you're so lucky to have one close) and then onto a bus. Ride sharing doesn't solve those problems, either, especially since you'd be in need of carseats. So no, automobile ownership is not dumb. There's plenty of use cases where…

I do this, though we could afford a car - and it's totally fine. Of course you make different choices, for example using scooters for the kids and ditching the stroller early, using bikes, planning out journeys, and allowing a little more time. I wish more people lived without a car in my current city, it'd make life more pleasant for everyone.

Outside a city of course, the equation is different and public transport just can't work for everyone, but in large cities life would be better if no-one had cars.

Re: Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017

#77

Post by Retric » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 8:42 PM UTC

jtchang wrote: post #63

birdman3131 wrote: post #43

I don't get how using lyft/uber as your only form of transportation can be at all cheaper. Let me run some basic math. Uber wants $11.50 to take me home right now. Lyft wants $13.40 $11.50 * 2 = $23/day 23 * 5 = $115/week $115 * 52 weeks = $5980/year (I am ignoring vacation weeks for now.) My yearly cost for car ownership are roughly as follows. (Assuming only work and back.) Insurance(1): $886/year Fuel(2): $292.50…

Your insurance number is pretty low. Also I'd say most people don't buy $1000 cars.

He said per year.

If you buy a 10,000$ car every 10 years that's 1,000$/year. Also, if you don't drive much you can average less than 1,000$/year in depreciation without driving a junker.

Re: Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017

#78

Post by klodolph » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 8:42 PM UTC

birdman3131 wrote: post #43

I don't get how using lyft/uber as your only form of transportation can be at all cheaper. Let me run some basic math. Uber wants $11.50 to take me home right now. Lyft wants $13.40 $11.50 * 2 = $23/day 23 * 5 = $115/week $115 * 52 weeks = $5980/year (I am ignoring vacation weeks for now.) My yearly cost for car ownership are roughly as follows. (Assuming only work and back.) Insurance(1): $886/year Fuel(2): $292.50…

That's the same calculation people do when thinking about vegetarianism or veganism. What's the benefit of replacing all of your turkey with tofurkey? Well, no, most vegetarians don't simply replace all of their meat with fake meat any more than people with cars replace all of their rides with Lyft.

Consider:

* Many households have two cars. I might "ditch owning a personal car" if I know I can occasionally borrow one, or if my husband/wife/etc can drop me off at work a couple days a week, and maybe I can use Lyft sometimes when the household car isn't available.

* Many people don't drive to work even if they have a car. Maybe you own a car for occasional errands.

* The cost of parking in some cities is prohibitive. Do you not pay for parking? I recognize that I live in an expensive city, but if I commuted by car I would likely be paying over $5,000 per year for parking alone.

* Some people have much higher insurance costs, and not necessarily due to fault of their own (e.g. single 20-year-old male drivers).

* Not everyone is willing to buy cheap cars off Craigslist, and most people don't do their own maintenance.

Re: Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017

#79

Post by prklmn » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 8:44 PM UTC

gonehome wrote: post #61

debt wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maintenance is time too. So pulling over and getting gas, bringing a car in for an oil change/replacing air filter/shocks/tire realignment etc. You have to get smog checks regularly. Parking tickets, speeding tickets, street cleaning. Maybe even a parking sticker. Also, don't ever get into an accident. I think a range depending on your risk profile makes more sense. Low end would be $3178 high end might be double tha…

You don't necessarily need to buy a junker to have an inexpensive car. You can lease a Fiat 500e for $90/month in California (which is what I do). That has the added benefit of removing fuel costs too.

Just out of curiosity, what's the yearly milage limit on that lease?

Re: Lyft says nearly 250K of its passengers ditched a personal car in 2017

#80

Post by test6554 » Tue, Jan 16, 2018, 8:44 PM UTC

2sk21 wrote: post #40

starik36 wrote: post #11

I think the biggest impact is going to be felt with current generations of 18 year olds. My kid (about to be 18) has no interest in getting a driver's license and neither are any of his friends. He's happy to be taking Uber and Lyft anywhere he goes. And between the cost of the vehicle and insurance, it's cheaper for me as well. When I was 16, I couldn't wait to get a car.

Exactly the same for my 20 year old daughter. This is really going to restrict where she can live in the US. I wonder if this may have the effect of making cities compete with each other for improving public transit.

Or make them neglect it, justified by the ubiquity of ride-hailing services.