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Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

nytimes.com

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Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#81

Post by JumpCrisscross »

matt4077 wrote: post #9
0xB31B1B wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the smaller planes are more efficient and scale better.

There's a limit to scalability at airports, especially the big & busy ones in western metropolis: JFK, LHR, FRA. It's easy to build a new runway, or a new airport, in the desert, or when you can evict anyone in the way. But try doing in a country ruled by law, when the city has long engulfed the airport build in the 60s.

> There's a limit to scalability at airports, especially the big & busy ones in western metropolis: JFK, LHR, FRA

Between 30 and 40% of passengers departing from JFK or Newark will go on to a connection [1]. Switching to point-to-point travel means reducing traffic at these hubs.

[1] https://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/ATR_2015.pdf

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#82

Post by wlesieutre »

dmead wrote: post #79
double0jimb0 wrote: post #15

Interning at Boeing in 2005, when the Dreamliner was still 2-3 years away from production, I asked a BD manager if Boeing was worried about A380 (the burning question at the time was "Who is going to win, A380/Airbus or Dreamliner/Boeing"). Without pause, he said "Not worried at all, A380 serves the hub and spoke model, which is dying. People hate layovers, they want more direct flights." Not a hard insight to grasp,…

Can you clarify why it serves the hub and spoke model?

The only routes with enough people to fill an A380 are from one hub to another.

If you flew Buffalo to Chicago to Denver to Colorado Springs, the Chicago to Denver leg could be on an A380 combined with people on tons of other itineraries that use the same hub-to-hub connection.

But airlines are moving toward more small flights that just get you from one place to another without routing through the same central points. Maybe you'd fly direct, or maybe you'd fly to Chicago and then straight to Colorado Springs without going through Denver. Without the hub/spoke model there's no individual flight with so many people on it.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#83

Post by deanCommie »

saryant wrote: post #51
deanCommie wrote: post #33

Can someone with a better understanding of economics than me explain something: How is the "point to point" (direct short flights via Ryanair and the like) beating "hub and spoke"(hubs like London and Frankfurt)? I don't mean for convenience - obviously it's nicer to not have layovers. But I mean economically. In the last 10 years, fuel prices have only gone up, as has environmental awareness, and the A380 is surely…

Jet fuel prices are half what they were ten years ago: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_refoth_dcu_nus_a.htm Prices peaked in 2008, dropped during the recession, reached that peak again in 2011 and are now even lower than they were during the worst days of the GFC.

Whoa that's shocking, why is this?

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#84

Post by JshWright »

paulmd wrote: post #13
0xB31B1B wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the smaller planes are more efficient and scale better.

Airport capacity scales with number of planes. Major airports are often running at capacity already and can't handle more planes. Increasing airport capacity is a very non-trivial problem. It's a tragedy-of-the-commons situation, like traffic congestion on a roadway.

The other way to take pressure off airport capacity is to reduce use of the hub and spoke model. If you fly direct from Buffalo to Tampa, you don't need to take up a slot in Newark.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#85

Post by InTheArena »

There are a lot of great books on the founding, planning, engineering and delivering the A380. All of them come to one painful conclusion - the A380 was driven more by politics and enabled by launch aid, rather then by real market need.

Airbus has seen the effect of the Arbus 300, Boeing 767 and Boeing 757 in the transatlantic market and knew that large twins capable of going trans-pacific (777 and 787) would similarly fragment pacfic markets. But it was worth it to the EU project, especially in the heady millennium world when it was planned, to have it as a prestige project, and the market would be solid enough, if not as large as Leahy and others were projecting.

People forget because of the debacle of the 787's engineering, but A380 had massive engineering problems - not with the fundamentals (the 747 was the worlds first double decker, first widebody - and the A380 was only a marginal capacity over the 747) but rather in that they had a lot of political problems, configuration errors, etc. The 787 still hasn't shown a profit (but it will) the A380 will never do so, even if EK does order a new plane.

Finally, Emirates Airline (EK) is in a pickle here. They have a unbelievable percentage of the overall A380 frames. Airbus ending the program plane will result in the resale value of the A380s simnifically depreciating. EK saw this coming a while ago and moves most of their orders over to leasing, but Airbus has EK in a unenviable position here.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#86

Post by InTheArena »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #37
pkaye wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not a obvious insight to grasp since airlines take a strategy that makes them the most money and passengers are cost sensitive. Wasn't this the driving force behind the hum and spoke model?

> Wasn't this the driving force behind the hum and spoke model? No, the range of small jets (which were constrained by relatively unreliable, inefficient engines) was. Small jets can safely go further today than they could before. Boeing saw this. To be fair, Airbus also saw this. Political factors, similar to those behind NASA’s Space Shuttle debacle, constrained them to making a giant ass plane.

This.

To be fair, Airbus actually owned the big twin market until the 767 and 757 came out. Then those planes (as well as Airbus's own planes) fragmented transatlantic flying. Then they lost their way when they focused on the A380 - but the engines that enabled the 787 were not yet out.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#87

Post by hinkley »

double0jimb0 wrote: post #28
pkaye wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not a obvious insight to grasp since airlines take a strategy that makes them the most money and passengers are cost sensitive. Wasn't this the driving force behind the hum and spoke model?

Passengers are cost AND travel-time/hassle sensitive. It appears Airbus didn't place enough value into the "travel-time/hassle" part. More detail: the Dreamliner is 20% more efficient than previous generation planes. This allowed airlines to "break" the major hubs into many quicker/easier direct flights at a price that passengers are willing to pay. Boeing bet increasing value in this manner was superior than Airbus'…

The Dreamliner can also fly about 2x as many miles between servicing (due to more careful logging of wear and tear), which means not only lower costs but also fewer logistical problems about getting the plane back to a maintenance facility before the FAA is breathing down your neck for noncompliance.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#88

Post by saryant »

deanCommie wrote: post #83
saryant wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jet fuel prices are half what they were ten years ago: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_refoth_dcu_nus_a.htm Prices peaked in 2008, dropped during the recession, reached that peak again in 2011 and are now even lower than they were during the worst days of the GFC.

Whoa that's shocking, why is this?

Crude oil prices tanked over the last ten years. Mostly a combination of OPEC ramping up production and the rise of the American frackers.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#89

Post by mschuster91 »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #46
theGimp wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cheap shot, but I'll take it. All 14 days of 2018? :)

The article said in 2017, probably a typo on the poster's side. The article is about Trump trying to take credit for this (as he always does), when it is actually the 6th straight year without fatalities. Politically speaking, we are living in dark times even if aviation is super safe.

> probably a typo on the poster's side.

Yep, blaming this typo on a severe undercaffeination.

> Politically speaking, we are living in dark times even if aviation is super safe.

The interesting question is: given the political climate (and especially the President's habit of "getting rid of rules"), how long will aviation stay super safe?

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#90

Post by _0nac »

InTheArena wrote: post #85

There are a lot of great books on the founding, planning, engineering and delivering the A380. All of them come to one painful conclusion - the A380 was driven more by politics and enabled by launch aid, rather then by real market need. Airbus has seen the effect of the Arbus 300, Boeing 767 and Boeing 757 in the transatlantic market and knew that large twins capable of going trans-pacific (777 and 787) would similar…

Well, it goes both ways: EK, being essentially a monopsony customer, is also in a great place to squeeze more concessions from Airbus. That's why the two sides are currently engaged in a game of chicken, with EK pulling what seemed like a done deal at the last Dubai airshow ("too expensive, lower your price!") and Airbus now making rumbling noises about cancelling production entirely ("price is too low, no plane for you!").
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