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Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

nytimes.com

11–20 of 247 posts

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#11
post #3

I like to use A380 as an analogy when a team works to perfect a product, adds lots of features, rewrites it a few times with the latest most buzzword-compliant technology, tests it until it is absolutely perfect, and ships it. ... Only to find out by that time the market has moved on and nobody wants to buy that kind of a thing anymore. Pretty sure that's a common theme for companies which end up on https://ourincred…

I'm quite happy the Airbus hasn't adopted "move fast an break things" yet. Because those "things" would possibly include my femur.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#12
post #2

Putting public pressure on Emirates, by Airbus's outgoing sales chief: "buy now or you won't be able to buy in the future" "Mr. Leahy, the Airbus chief operating officer, said on Monday that the A380’s best days were ahead. Passenger traffic is doubling every 15 years, he said, meaning that the original rationale for the model still holds." They just need to tide it over the lean years. EDIT: clarified what I meant w…

> Putting public pressure on Emirates, by Airbus's outgoing sales chief.

Why is making a private conversation public like this a good sales strategy? (I'd argue that it would have the opposite effect by generating distrust.)

I'd think "leaking" a conversation like this would be aimed at parties not directly privy to the talks.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#13
post #4
post #2

Putting public pressure on Emirates, by Airbus's outgoing sales chief: "buy now or you won't be able to buy in the future" "Mr. Leahy, the Airbus chief operating officer, said on Monday that the A380’s best days were ahead. Passenger traffic is doubling every 15 years, he said, meaning that the original rationale for the model still holds." They just need to tide it over the lean years. EDIT: clarified what I meant w…

But the smaller planes are more efficient and scale better.

Airport capacity scales with number of planes. Major airports are often running at capacity already and can't handle more planes. Increasing airport capacity is a very non-trivial problem.

It's a tragedy-of-the-commons situation, like traffic congestion on a roadway.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#14
post #6

If you follow @FakeUnitedJeff (United CEO parody account, but obviously an insider), he said this today: "I predict Airbus will abandon the A380 soon and the type will phase out of non-Mideast 3 as they hit their first major maintenance check or lease end." Worth nothing that the first A380 to enter passenger service just finished its 10-year lease to Singapore Airlines. SA chose to return the plane. https://www.bloo…

Are most planes leased? Do the manufacturers try to resell them when they come off lease or are they inspected to be used for parts for repair?

They are not leased by the manufacturers but by aircraft leasing companies like AerCap and GECAS.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#15
Interning at Boeing in 2005, when the Dreamliner was still 2-3 years away from production, I asked a BD manager if Boeing was worried about A380 (the burning question at the time was "Who is going to win, A380/Airbus or Dreamliner/Boeing").

Without pause, he said "Not worried at all, A380 serves the hub and spoke model, which is dying. People hate layovers, they want more direct flights."

Not a hard insight to grasp, and one which seems to have doomed A380 from the start.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#16
post #9
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the smaller planes are more efficient and scale better.

There's a limit to scalability at airports, especially the big & busy ones in western metropolis: JFK, LHR, FRA. It's easy to build a new runway, or a new airport, in the desert, or when you can evict anyone in the way. But try doing in a country ruled by law, when the city has long engulfed the airport build in the 60s.

There could be more hubs though. Pittsburgh was once a major hub. Could it come back again? Any other airports like that?

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#17
post #6

If you follow @FakeUnitedJeff (United CEO parody account, but obviously an insider), he said this today: "I predict Airbus will abandon the A380 soon and the type will phase out of non-Mideast 3 as they hit their first major maintenance check or lease end." Worth nothing that the first A380 to enter passenger service just finished its 10-year lease to Singapore Airlines. SA chose to return the plane. https://www.bloo…

Are most planes leased? Do the manufacturers try to resell them when they come off lease or are they inspected to be used for parts for repair?

Depends on the airline. Most Middle Eastern airlines, for example, own the aircrafts they operate though a small number were indeed leased.

A brand new A380 lists for $300 million dollars so not all airlines have the cash to pay for them upfront, enter leasing companies who put down the capital and rent the planes out to interested airlines. Normally when the lease expires it is off to another renter at a marked.down price, however in case of the 380 this may be a bit difficult since only a few airlines have enough volume out of hubs to fill the plane, and chances are they already have more aircrafts than necessary.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#18
post #3

I like to use A380 as an analogy when a team works to perfect a product, adds lots of features, rewrites it a few times with the latest most buzzword-compliant technology, tests it until it is absolutely perfect, and ships it. ... Only to find out by that time the market has moved on and nobody wants to buy that kind of a thing anymore. Pretty sure that's a common theme for companies which end up on https://ourincred…

The problem is that you cannot simply ship a not "absolutely perfect" plane. Or, actually, it's not a problem but a blessing given that there were no commercial flight related fatalities in the USA in 2017 (per http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-aviation-safety-201801...).

No doubt: Without the drastic levels of regulation the FAA (and JAA) impose on civilian flight, fatalities would be orders of magnitude higher.

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#19
post #6

If you follow @FakeUnitedJeff (United CEO parody account, but obviously an insider), he said this today: "I predict Airbus will abandon the A380 soon and the type will phase out of non-Mideast 3 as they hit their first major maintenance check or lease end." Worth nothing that the first A380 to enter passenger service just finished its 10-year lease to Singapore Airlines. SA chose to return the plane. https://www.bloo…

Are most planes leased? Do the manufacturers try to resell them when they come off lease or are they inspected to be used for parts for repair?

This is a philosophical difference, in a way - running an asset-light business vs an asset-heavy business. Hotels have mostly moved towards not owning their properties, for example.

Increasingly, many new orders of aircraft are leases. However, they are not usually leased directly from the manufacturer. The airplane is usually owned by a holding company ("trust"), and tranches of the trust are sold to investors - somewhat similar to a mortgage bond.

The benefits of this is that investors from all over the world can invest directly into the airplane, then lease it to the airline. The plane itself is the collateral, and international treaties make it easy for investors to retrieve the plane if the airline isn't making its lease payments. They could then choose to lease the plane to someone else, sell it to someone else, or to scrap it for parts and materials.

What are the benefits for airlines? Typically, if things go south, they don't owe anything beyond giving the aircraft back. Also, given that many US airlines have gone through Chapter 11 recently, I'd assume they wouldn't get great interest rates if they actually want to buy the plane - it's likely cheaper for them to lease through an EETC. For example, American Airlines issued a bunch of EETC's the past few years.

It's a fairly niche subject, so the wiki page isn't too great, but here it is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equipment_trust_certificate

Re: Airbus A380, Once the Future of Aviation, May Cease Production

#20

Interning at Boeing in 2005, when the Dreamliner was still 2-3 years away from production, I asked a BD manager if Boeing was worried about A380 (the burning question at the time was "Who is going to win, A380/Airbus or Dreamliner/Boeing"). Without pause, he said "Not worried at all, A380 serves the hub and spoke model, which is dying. People hate layovers, they want more direct flights." Not a hard insight to grasp,…

It is not a obvious insight to grasp since airlines take a strategy that makes them the most money and passengers are cost sensitive. Wasn't this the driving force behind the hum and spoke model?
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