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What It Felt Like in Hawaii When Warning of an In-Bound Missile Arrived

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Re: What It Felt Like in Hawaii When Warning of an In-Bound Missile Arrived

#251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Koreans seem to be calmer about the entire situation than just everybody else. And I say that as a Brazilian, that is not only on the literally opposite end of the world, but also did not get to see a war since WWII and even then had minimal involvement. You certainly know something that nobody else knows.

Perhaps because they understand the reality of the situation better? Look, almost everyone gets the situation with North Korea wrong. NK has exactly one deterrent from being invaded, and that is a ton of very boring, very conventional artillery that is within firing distance of Seoul. In the case of NK being invaded, they would immediately start shelling Seoul and trying to reduce it to rubble. If you start evacuatin…

I think this is mostly right, but there is still some room for concern. First off, those anti-missile defenses have never been tested in anger and we can't be 100% sure they will work. (I'd love to think we have an effective boost-phase defense in place, but I gather that's not going to be a reality for a few years yet, at best.) Second, what I think Kim really wants to use those nukes for, besides leverage in the sanctions discussions, is to pry apart our alliance with South Korea, by making it too dangerous for us to come to their aid once NK attacks Seoul. Even with Pyongyang flattened, there could still be launchers hidden in the mountains and one of those rockets might get past our defenses. Would you really want to risk Seattle or San Francisco or even Honolulu?

On the other hand, I think everyone except possibly Kim and his minions wants peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. The Chinese certainly do, and I think even the Russians, though they have less at stake, would not want to see war break out — certainly not nuclear war, which would endanger Vladivostok. What I don't know is how badly Kim wants to conquer South Korea. He likes to argue that his nukes are for defensive purposes, and that's not unreasonable under the circumstances, but the problem is that they can be used offensively as well. What I would like to see is a peace treaty that obliges not just us and Japan but also China and Russia to participate in obliterating North Korea should they attack South Korea or anyone else.

That sounds like a pipe dream, but consider this. We could provide South Korea with nukes. Yes, it would be in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. (I wouldn't suggest abrogating the treaty altogether, but it has clearly failed its purpose in this instance. A case can be made for restoring the regional balance of power.) We shouldn't bluff, but a credible threat to nuclear-arm South Korea might bring China and even Russia to the table.

Re: What It Felt Like in Hawaii When Warning of an In-Bound Missile Arrived

#252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if you get a nuclear war warning that isn’t real...I’m curious if there’s anything damaging in that doomsday email you have?

""" Dear Boss: Fuck you. Dear Girlfriend: I'm sleeping with your sister. Sorry. Dear Neighbor: I was being sarcastic every time I said 'Have a nice day.' Peace out, IIAOPSW """ EDIT: Please ignore my previous email! My phone seems to have a virus, and I am going to sue the phone company for allowing such a thing! Boss, can I have my job back? Stacy, will you please answer my texts??? Neighbor: Well that one was true,…

P.S. I was the one who stole the cookie from the cookie jar.

Re: What It Felt Like in Hawaii When Warning of an In-Bound Missile Arrived

#253
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a member of the church I'm atheist, but if things were going horribly wrong LDS would be high on my list of people to be around.

Pro: A bunch of them are nutty doomsday preppers, with a lot of food supplies in their basements. Con: The polygamy, child abuse, and endless fast and testimony meetings get kinda old after a while.

> polygamy, child abuse, and endless fast and testimony meetings

Speaking anecdotally about my experiences in Oregon with Mormon friends, this feels like a gross misrepresentation. I haven't seen any of these situations pop up, and certainly not in any way that would cause it to be systemic.

Re: What It Felt Like in Hawaii When Warning of an In-Bound Missile Arrived

#254
post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a member of the church I'm atheist, but if things were going horribly wrong LDS would be high on my list of people to be around.

Why is that?

I suppose living in southern Idaho for nine years makes me qualified to answer this :) Many Mormons are very into prepping (preparing for emergencies.)

For example, when I lived in Idaho Falls, many of the Mormons I knew had thick concrete shelters in their basements, massive amounts of dried food prepared, huge jugs of water stored, and regularly did drills with other members of there community. Additionally, Mormon churches are usually pretty visible (plus, they'd probably be willing to take you in) and common enough that it shouldn't be too hard to get to one.

Re: What It Felt Like in Hawaii When Warning of an In-Bound Missile Arrived

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or the continued drone war that is inflicting a continuous terror on many civilians. Now considerd standard operating procedure and no longer mentioned in the media. Imagine living your life not knowing if the coffee place you are visiting is in a drones cross hairs. Then image what kind of hate you would feel towards the country inflicting this terror on you. This is not how you solve extremism and bring peace. This…

Yup. The USA has actively created plenty of shitholes - in places where the faces are not pure European white - and that gets zero public reaction. The current POTUS uses the word shithole to describe a group of countries and he's X, Y and Z. Yeah, Trump is a moron. But the hypocrisy of the press and the public is a moral violation.

While I agree that Trump is not the stable genius he thinks he is, the drone war existed before. We are speaking of a nobel peace prize winner who seemingly did not have either the ability to recognize the hell he helped create or the b----s to stand against his military advisors to stop it. You can blame Trump for a lot but even when there were smarter people in power, it wasn't much better. I want to believe that Chealsey Manning can change something but do not really believe in it.

Re: What It Felt Like in Hawaii When Warning of an In-Bound Missile Arrived

#256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would NK have to gain by nuking Hawaii? It would cause the US to retaliate massively, while not doing serious damage to its military capabilities.

You think the US would actually retaliate against a limited nuclear attack in an isolated place with a massive nuclear counterattack? (I can see it in a cold war scenario against the USSR, with tanks moving into Europe and the world order at stake) I think the US woudln't and, of course, shouldn't. The usual game-theoretical reasonings in this regard are misguided and shortsighted.

I'd be interested for you to expand on your last sentence, because it seems to me that we would have no choice but to respond massively. Once Kim demonstrated a willingness to launch an offensive attack killing or endangering civilians, we'd have to assume he would do it again, and would therefore have to do our best at destroying all his launchers, and make every effort to kill him. He knows that, of course, which is why he's not going to do anything so stupid.

Re: What It Felt Like in Hawaii When Warning of an In-Bound Missile Arrived

#257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would NK have to gain by nuking Hawaii? It would cause the US to retaliate massively, while not doing serious damage to its military capabilities.

You think the US would actually retaliate against a limited nuclear attack in an isolated place with a massive nuclear counterattack? (I can see it in a cold war scenario against the USSR, with tanks moving into Europe and the world order at stake) I think the US woudln't and, of course, shouldn't. The usual game-theoretical reasonings in this regard are misguided and shortsighted.

I can't think of a scenario where a US counterattack isn't more damaging to NK than whatever damage NK would manage to inflict on the US by nuking Hawaii.

Re: What It Felt Like in Hawaii When Warning of an In-Bound Missile Arrived

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's so if you survive, you have clean drinking water for when the infrastructure has failed and you're waiting for rescue.

This is exactly the thought. Water is the #1 survival necessity but an enormously fragile resource. Electricity can go out, pipes can burst, water supplies can be tainted. Some people keep years worth of canned food around but almost nobody has a year's supply of water.

Don't forget that the water heater has 50 gallons in it.

Re: What It Felt Like in Hawaii When Warning of an In-Bound Missile Arrived

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't struggle with those interviews at all, they are outrageous and shameful. There's an argument to be made about conveying the scope of a tragedy to the public but it's also pretty clear that cameras are being shoved in people's faces.

I feel exactly the opposite. It's critical that the real impact of death and destruction be effectively conveyed in the media. All too often it's trivialized, sugar-coated, or made to seem like a video game. People need to realize how devastating such violence is, instead of viewing it as a game or a joke, if there is to be any hope of reducing its incidence.

I mentioned that I understand that in the second paragraph and expressed that I don't think they do a good job of it.

Much of the media treats victims of tragedies like shit. All the time. It's a race to who knows where.

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