Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

201–210 of 235 posts

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#201

Post by kypro »

te_chris wrote: post #192
te_chris wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an immigrant to the UK from not-the-EU, I can tell you that Mrs. May's time at the home office has turned UK immigration policy into a clusterfuck that works against the interests of the country and forces smart people who the UK didn't have to pay to educate (from Australasia in my experience) to leave, despite them having good jobs and paying tax here.

@kypro It's not 'racially preferenced'. The UK is a member of a club of nations with certain rules, which it seems to be ignorant of - such as the ability to restrict free movement within the rules of FM. The way the UK treats outside EU migrants is down to the hateful politics of the daily mail et al and has no basis in fact - look at Germany and the Blue Card for a contrasting example. FWIW, I voted remain (as a Co…

It's not racially preferenced in the same way voter ID, or Trump's immigration ban of "high risk" countries isn't racial preferenced. It's effect is a racially preferenced immigration system for not good reason. There are many talented people from non-EU countries which the UK doesn't take because of unskilled EU immigration taking preference.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#202

Post by raverbashing »

kypro wrote: post #187
te_chris wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an immigrant to the UK from not-the-EU, I can tell you that Mrs. May's time at the home office has turned UK immigration policy into a clusterfuck that works against the interests of the country and forces smart people who the UK didn't have to pay to educate (from Australasia in my experience) to leave, despite them having good jobs and paying tax here.

Yeah, non-EU immigrants do get fucked over, because the immigration system is basically racially preferenced to European immigrants. Non-EU immigrants have to get through countless barriers those coming from the EU don't.

Skilled workers from non-EU country don't have many difficulties getting a work visa to the UK. And unskilled work doesn't usually compete with skilled work.

Every selection is biased in one way or the other, there's no purely fair way of doing that.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#203

Post by toyg »

rusk wrote: post #133
toyg wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and the EU of course must consult her in setting these. What? No. The Eu didn't commit to a single thing in that agreement, beyond graciously accepting for the UK to pay its bills and letting it trade as long as they follow EU rules. The UK will end up like Norway: paying the price for selling into the EU, without any say in EU rules. Which is exactly what was predicted at the start, and makes the Uk a de-facto vas…

The Eu didn't commit to a single thing The EU agreed that given this agreement there would be no requirement for a customs border. The term "Vassal state" is incorrect as it describes a nation that has been subjugated to the will of another nation e.g. Ireland's relationship with the UK before the 20th century. The EU is not a state, it is a "collection of states" and is the realisation of the need for greater alignm…

Oh I do agree that the UK position has consistently been silly, all the way back from the very day they joined with their ad-hoc "rebate". I am not trying to portrait anything in an evil light, it's just as it is: UK voters, by their own free will, materially reduced their sovereignty in commercial matters. They put themselves (and us EU citizens in UK) into this situation, although it's not too late to forget the whole thing and go back being a peer.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#204

Post by DanBC »

pjc50 wrote: post #183
DanBC wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tick here if you're aware that X% of doctors and nurses on the NHS are from the EU and reducing their number will result in more delays and/or need to have more doctors/nurses from non-EU countries The racists don't believe this, and want to get rid of those workers, and (delusionally) think we can train our own nurses and doctors and allied health professionals. They just want europeans out, and they'd vote brexit…

> all EU NHS staff have already been told that they're guaranteed to be allowed to stay in the UK Could you provide a reference for this? I hope it's true but I've missed the announcement. > All bookaks are blue. Are all blue things bookaks? Blue passports , dammit! (Which were in reality black)

He's been saying for a long time that he really wants them to be able to stay.

Here's one example: https://www.gponline.com/hunt-confident-eu-nhs-workers-will-...

Here's his tweet announcing the deal: https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/939052992736751616

> This deal gives our brilliant EU doctors & nurses binding guarantees about their residence rights. NHS staff please spread the word to European colleagues: this is your home, we value your life-saving work, and we want you to stay.

(I strongly dislike Mr Hunt, and I'm struggling to keep a neutral tone here.)

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#205

Post by gmac »

kypro wrote: post #109
tom_mellior wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He is saying a second referendum could show the politicians who have been pushing for a soft brexit recently that this is really what the British public want. What does the word "this" refer to in the sentence above? A yes/no referendum on Brexit will not show the politicians whether the public want a soft or a hard Brexit.

The problem is you can't have a multiple choice referendum because it would split the leave vote. For example: A. "Hard" Brexit B. "Soft" Brexit C. No Brexit Brexitors would be somewhat split between A and B, and all remainers would pick C. However, based on polling data it would suggest most people in favour of Brexit do want a "hard" Brexit, or a brexit that would give the UK control over its own trade and immigrat…

Definitely a feature, not a bug. :)

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#206

Post by oliwarner »

timthorn wrote: post #70
pjc50 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Farage was never officially part of any the UK power structure, except the media.

He's an MEP. You can argue about their powers out his effectiveness, but he's an elected representative which I'd have thought puts him within the UK power structure.

Exactly. By his own measure, a waste of space.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#207

Post by pbhjpbhj »

oblio wrote: post #193
pbhjpbhj wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But lack of war in Europe is costing us so much in lost revenue for UK arms manufacturers!

Not to rain on your parade, but the last "European" war almost bankrupted the UK. And back then European countries didn't have nukes while the UK still had an empire. I know you're being sarcastic :)

My point was indeed to highlight the EU as a source of peace/stability.

But, excess profit taxes are a thing, used to prevent the perverse incentives of capitalism during wartime.

Bankrupting the country and bankrupting corporate interests are different things.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#208

Post by the_mitsuhiko »

rusk wrote: post #181
nkkollaw wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. You're probably confusing Poland with Greece. Poland's unemployment rate is about 100% better than Ireland, Italy, France, and others and almost 50% better than the EU. In big cities is perceptively non-existant among young people (my perception and my girlfriend's). Here is a chart: https://www.statista.com/statistics/268830/unemployment-rate...

Okay my bad. Hard to separate truth from fiction with everything that comes across in the media these days.

Well it's not really surprising. People have been emigrating from Poland for a long time. This eventually has to show up in low unemployment numbers.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#209

Post by ben_w »

Havoc wrote: post #89
ben_w wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Think that's going to bite Nige Disagree. He said before the referendum that 48%-52% would be unfinished business, but didn’t seem to lose credibility amongst his supporters from it. Something may eventually tarnish his Teflon, but he’d probably be able to turn defeat in a second referendum into a rallying cry for a literal attempted revolution. (I place odds of UK civil war in the next 6 years at about 10%).

Thing is everyone is starting to recognise the whole brexit story is a rather miserable one that has little shot at a happy end. So I'd imagine that a second vote would end in favour of remain by a more conclusive margin than the first.

I see little evidence of voters changing their mind, only of non-voters leaning (in recent months) towards Remain.

As a Remain voter I am obviously biased to see mainly the flaws in Leavers, so please synthesise opposite equivalents for the following: If Leave voters agregate around the identity that “Brexit is expensive but worth it”, I think this decreases the risk of them starting the sort of riots that would lead to a civil war; if they instead are surprised by massive economic damage (or by 10% of the doctors leaving at once), that increases the risk they will decide to blame Remainers for “talking the country down” or whatever.

I have seen comments from YouGov users suggesting that people like me should be executed. I do not yet take such comments as a serious threat (they have also suggested nukes, apparently oblivious to France having any of their own), but such comments are part of why I estimate 10% chance of civil war in this timeframe — the other major component of my belief being an assumption that the basic rate of civil wars is 1/(years since last one) per year.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#210

Post by vilmosi »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #105
collyw wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Brit working in Europe, one year and a half after the announcement I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. It makes sense to at least know what the worst possible scenario is. We have a Prime Minister who was against Brexit pushing for a hard Brexit. An opposition leader who is for Brexit. An uninformed public who were blatantly lied to (350 million a week to the NHS). The whole thing is an absolute s…

Is Corbyn for Brexit? He campaigned against it all around the country before the referendum. Can anyone provide anything close to a first hand source?

>>> He campaigned against it all around the country before the referendum.

He absolutely did not nor did he participate in any of the public debates prior to the referendum. He strategically remained quiet.

Post reply on HN