Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

161–170 of 235 posts

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#161

Post by nkkollaw »

rusk wrote: post #142
nkkollaw wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hasn't there been a bunch of religious conservatives elected there lately? Yes, like are most Poles. It makes sense, no..? Not my cup of tea, but what's wrong with that? > I honestly don't know if what I'm reading is propaganda any more but it seems they were doing lots of ugly things like cracking down on free speech. It's partly true. You're talking about an incident where they fined a newspaper for their coverag…

Life in Poland is pretty great, What's the story with unemployment there these days? I read recently it was among the highest in Europe?

Nope. You're probably confusing Poland with Greece.

Poland's unemployment rate is about 100% better than Ireland, Italy, France, and others and almost 50% better than the EU.

In big cities is perceptively non-existant among young people (my perception and my girlfriend's).

Here is a chart: https://www.statista.com/statistics/268830/unemployment-rate...

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#162

Post by blibble »

the_mitsuhiko wrote: post #137
blibble wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

trade deals under the Common Commercial Policy also are under QMV: this is the entire point of the EU being delegated responsibility for trade CETA is a mixed agreement: 99% of it is covered under the CCP and went into effect before it had even been voted on by most national parliaments you can confirm for yourself from the EU's own website on CETA ( http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/index_en.htm ): On 2…

You are correct that basic trade agreements do not require parliamentary approval. The assumption however here would be that the UK wants more than that the EU can just hand out itself.

so, what I described above: another mixed agreement, where 99% doesn't require unanimity

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#163

Post by matthewmacleod »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #105
collyw wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a Brit working in Europe, one year and a half after the announcement I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. It makes sense to at least know what the worst possible scenario is. We have a Prime Minister who was against Brexit pushing for a hard Brexit. An opposition leader who is for Brexit. An uninformed public who were blatantly lied to (350 million a week to the NHS). The whole thing is an absolute s…

Is Corbyn for Brexit? He campaigned against it all around the country before the referendum. Can anyone provide anything close to a first hand source?

Yes. Corbyn has been a long-term left-wing Eurosceptic, who opposed membership of the EC in 1975 and acted consistently with that view until the recent referendum.

While his public statements during the referendum supported remaining in the EU, I would argue that the general consensus among most of the "remain" campaigners was that his support was lukewarm at best (e.g. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36506...).

In reality, the Labour Party membership are broadly not Eurosceptic, and it's my view that Corbyn mostly has to toe a non-too-Eurosceptic line, especially given the support he has among generally pro-EU young people that brought him to power in the first place.

At present, the Labour Party's position on Brexit is hopelessly muddled, something along the lines of "We don't want to remain in the single market but we kind of want something maybe sort of similar". There is no discussion about remaining in the EU.

I'm sorry I can't provide you with a much better source at the moment, but it's more complex than a quote saying "I love Brexit".

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#164

Post by swarnie_ »

adventured wrote: post #134
moomin wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right about the polarisation. The same forces in play in America are in play in Britain right now. It's no accident that Trump described himself as "Mr Brexit". Authoritarian voters support Brexit, liberal ones don't. The major parties split right/left not authoritarian/liberal and are terrified of losing their voting base. I know a die hard leaver, she's one of the few people I'd trust my children with. She's…

In your opinion, what do you think the consequences with regards to Scotland will be given some time? Might they seek another independence vote to then rejoin the EU?

If we get a "hard" Brexit i can see Scotland voting to leave within a few years, ill put 90% odds on it.

Ireland maybe unifying? Not impossible.

The union looks very weak from where i'm sat right now.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#165

Post by tom_mellior »

marrs wrote: post #102
nkkollaw wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bad. If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only will cost so much money (and pain) that it would justify staying in the EU. Then, of course there are companies that have left and that will leave, highly-skilled workflow for London that will be harder to get, etc. They have to negotiate with the EU so…

If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. I've never understood this argument. Surely all you have to do is write a law that says: in the absence of British law, default to EU legislation. That's the essence of the great repeal bill, is it not? They have to negotiate with the EU so that they're not completely…

> there is the little matter of the ~£60 billion shortfall that the EU has to find from somewhere.

What is this figure? https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million... claims a UK net contribution to the EU of UKP 8.6 billion in 2016.

You could argue that that would be a yearly shortfall over a number of years, is that what then comes out to 60 billion? Or are you talking about something else? Also there is the matter of the exit bill, which should offset part of that amount.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#166

Post by rusk »

mkohlmyr wrote: post #85
nkkollaw wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bad. If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only will cost so much money (and pain) that it would justify staying in the EU. Then, of course there are companies that have left and that will leave, highly-skilled workflow for London that will be harder to get, etc. They have to negotiate with the EU so…

Your first argument boils down to "it's difficult to leave so why bother". That's an objectively terrible reason to stay, no matter your political affiliation or feelings about the EU. As far as the "old people did this to us" meme. The 75% of young people who purportedly are so strongly against brexit probably should have bothered to vote if they wanted that outcome. Additionally, there are other factors than just a…

"it's difficult to leave so why bother"

- It's difficult to beat with a whisk than an electrical blender so why bother.

- It's difficult to play field sports with half a team so why bother.

- It's difficult to cut off your nose to spite your face so why bother.

At this time, this is how this argument sounds to me. The EU is an emergent phenomena. The natural course for a collection of neighbour states that wish to have peace and free trade.

The UK still wants to have peace and free trade for sure, but has decided to construct an entirely different artifice through which to pursue these goals, quite apart from the states with whom she wants to continue to have peace and free trade!

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#167

Post by gambiting »

cmdkeen wrote: post #74
nkkollaw wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bad. If anything because they'll have to rewrite thousands of laws and procedures that came from the EU times, and deal with the caos that that will cause. That only will cost so much money (and pain) that it would justify staying in the EU. Then, of course there are companies that have left and that will leave, highly-skilled workflow for London that will be harder to get, etc. They have to negotiate with the EU so…

While I appreciate Brexit hasn't happened yet there's little to no evidence yet of any exodus of highly skilled workforces. London remains an incredibly attractive destination for inflows of both investment, workers and tourists. Will some companies leave, no doubt, however the high profile mass departure of European HQs and banks has yet to bear out. To the OP, and going back to the article, a major issue is that of…

This is purely anecdotal, of course, but our company which is a large software developer in the UK, is facing a lot of difficulty hiring from EU(candidates drop out citing Brexit half way through the process too) and we already had several EU employees leaving specifically because they don't want to live in UK anymore due to perceived hostility of Britain towards them. We also work with a local Russel group university and I know for a fact that after the referendum, number of applicants for PhD positions in CS from EU countries has dropped down from an average of 160 applications/year, to....3 applications last year. Everything that is happening is monumentally bad, but I think UK won't see some of the bad effects for years which of course makes everyone think it's absolutely fine.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#168

Post by matthewmacleod »

blibble wrote: post #158
pjc50 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot depends on what happens to the EU nationals currently resident here. At some point their status will be crystallised. It's unlikely but if the government goes for "everyone now has 6 weeks to leave or you're deported", that's riot material.

even a future hypothetical dystopian government would be smarter than that no need to deport anyone when they could slowly withdraw the right to work (say when someone swaps jobs)

You say that, but then we currently have almost limitless incompetence at the highest levels of government. So many aspects of Brexit that have been completely not thought about. The idea of an absolute trade barrier with our largest trading partner being thrown around as a valid idea.

I could easily see a malfunctioning government unilaterally deporting EU citizens.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#169

Post by adventured »

alkonaut wrote: post #160
adventured wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you go back a few years, there was a large hysteria across much of the Eurozone about German domination of the bloc. Magazine cover after magazine cover painting them in terrible light, including some going so far as to reference back to Nazi times. That coincided with the post effects of the great recession, when Germany essentially refused to allow more liberal central bank posturing and action to try to follow…

> there was a large hysteria across much of the Eurozone about German domination of the bloc. Magazine cover after magazine cover painting them in terrible light, including some going so far as to reference back to Nazi times. I try to keep up with politics and news and saw none of this (I watch foreign TV but don't read foreign newspapers a lot). So I don't think there has been a lot of painting germany as a bad guy…

> So I don't think there has been a lot of painting germany as a bad guy in Swedish media, no

I think you have to consider that would very likely be because Sweden isn't in the Euro. For example there has been widespread blame in Finland, that their protracted economic suffering was from being unable to control their own currency to respond better to their long recessionary environment.

It got extremely heated amongst Eurozone members.

http://www.dw.com/en/germany-painted-as-villain-in-euro-cris...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/feb/15/eurozone-de...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/17/business/global/the-rest-o...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/dec/26/german...

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics/2012/06/angel...

"Why not blame Germany?"

https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/10/euro-cr...

"Who is responsible for the eurozone crisis? The simple answer: Germany"

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/who-is-responsible-for-t...

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/politics/2012/06/angel...

"Eurozone recession deepened at end of 2012" (Germany was blamed for that, due to their ECB preferences of policy) -

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-21455423

"Two versus 'La Merkel'; Italy and France Team Up against Germany" (2012)

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/two-versus-la-mer...

It keeps going for a hundred more stories like those. If you dig into local Greek, Spanish, Italian, French, British media over those couple of years, Germany is largely the villain of the Eurozone economic crisis. You'd even see it represented constantly on media sites like Imgur.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#170

Post by kypro »

pjc50 wrote: post #150
kypro wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is you can't have a multiple choice referendum because it would split the leave vote. For example: A. "Hard" Brexit B. "Soft" Brexit C. No Brexit Brexitors would be somewhat split between A and B, and all remainers would pick C. Can I add some disclaimers to? * Tick here if you are aware there are shortages of doctors and nurses (and other skilled professions) in eastern European countries like Romania be…

> while in the EU the UK has effectively zero control over it's immigration and trade This isn't true though.

Okay, please tell me what restrictions are in place to stop someone from Poland immigrating to the UK?

Also, are you suggesting the EU doesn't have open borders?

Post reply on HN