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Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

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Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#41

Post by Tomte »

romland wrote: post #34
nkkollaw wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but Germany will have less control over the UK. From what I can tell and have read Germany has huge influence on pretty much every country besides Poland and--perhaps--Hungary (I live in Poland, not sure about Hungary actually). Poland definitely thinks about its own citizens _first_, and _then_ at what's good for the EU, which is after all what politicians have been elected to do. I'm Italian and Italy is a me…

Are you suggesting that Poland and Hungary are leechers?

No, they are autocratic regimes, well on their way to full dictatorship within a few generations of "presidents".

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#42

Post by ben_w »

tobltobs wrote: post #22
dhoulb wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah this seems like the most reasonable option. Even not having service trade isn’t a great disaster. Companies with sizeable EU revenue can just set up a European subsidiary (in Ireland, etc) to conduct business in Europe from the UK (or anywhere). (Though I accept it’ll be a pain for e.g. finance companies which the EU requires to be based within the EU,) Startups eespecially aren’t held back by these rules right…

> Though I accept it’ll be a pain for e.g. finance companies which the EU requires to be based within the EU What kind of services does the UK export which do not fall into the finance category?

Software contractors?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#43

Post by djsumdog »

forinti wrote: post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

I thnk Brexit is a good thing .. for the EU. The UK has refused to adopt the Euro. The GBP is totally overvalued. The UK/Ireland have no plans to join the Shengen zone (which is a good thing for American backpackers I'll admit, as when you're 90 days in the EU run out, you can stay in the UK for 120, until the reset period). Politically, the UK is more closely aligned to US foreign policy (that of war mongering) than the EU.

With such a long transition period, I'm guess most UK citizens living/working in Europe have hopefully started work visa application processes, in case the EU parliament decides to not allow a bi-lateral work agreement.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#44

Post by pjc50 »

nkkollaw wrote: post #26
the_mitsuhiko wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how being outside the EU would help the UK against "Germany's dominance" Surely out of the EU means by definition that the UK has less control over Germany?

Sure, but Germany will have less control over the UK. From what I can tell and have read Germany has huge influence on pretty much every country besides Poland and--perhaps--Hungary (I live in Poland, not sure about Hungary actually). Poland definitely thinks about its own citizens _first_, and _then_ at what's good for the EU, which is after all what politicians have been elected to do. I'm Italian and Italy is a me…

On this subject of not having a choice in accepting rules: https://medium.com/@gordonguthrie/no-deal-wont-happen-e185f9...

"This is a tale of three dates. On 13th August 1969 the Irish Taoiseach went on television and called on the United Nations to send a peacekeeping into the United Kingdom to protect Irish people in Derry and Belfast.

On 30th January 1972 the Parachute Regiment massacred 13 people on Bloody Sunday, and an Irish mob burnt the British Embassy in Dublin to the ground — thankfully with no deaths.

In between on 15th February 1971 Ireland decimalised its currency, the same day the British did. It introduced the new 7-sided 50p coin — designed by the British, identical in weight and shape but with the Harp on it, not the Crown.

Britain was a rule-maker for Ireland and Ireland was a rule-taker: and all its bile and hope and hatred and determination and pride and desperation and anger and fear and dreams could do nothing about it.

Its not as if Ireland didn’t have sovereignty and wouldn’t fight for it. Before becoming Taoiseach Jack Lynch served under Éamon De Valera and Seán Lemass, veterans both of 1916, with Dev coming within inches of being executed for his part.

This is where the UK stands now. There are three rule-makers, the US, China and the EU and everyone else takes."

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#45

Post by iand »

pjc50 wrote: post #36
te_chris wrote: post #23

Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farag...

This reminds me more and more of Greece, with Farage in the Varoufakis role. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015 The public voted "no", again, but obviously that made no difference to the deals on offer and no deal remained disastrous, so Syriza were ultimately forced to accept a worse deal: "On Monday, 13 July, the Syriza-led government of Greece accepted a bailout package that contains larg…

Varoufakis resigned the day after the referendum, before the Greek government accepted the bailout.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#46

Post by marrs »

forinti wrote: post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

Losing access to the free market would be fine if we gain access to the global market, at least in the medium to long term. The ability to drop tariffs on imports would be a big deal even in the short term.

In reality, though, I don't see us leaving the trappings of the EU with this current govt: we'll just lose our seat at the table (to coin a phrase). This was never going to be quick, though: the Brexit issue will be at the centre of politics for at least a generation.

I'm actually more interested in how this has shone a light on the issue of the slow erosion of our sovereignty and our traditional British liberal values. On this point I agree with the author that the younger generation seem to be far more ambivalent about freedom of speech, democracy, et al. to the point that they seem to be actively suspicious of it.

The severity of this division has been a bit of a shock, but I'd rather we deal with it now than not at all, especially when Trump shows us that the alternative could have been to vote in a radical populist party instead, which would have had far more power than Trump has.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#47

Post by blibble »

maze-le wrote: post #24
627467 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious: what are the cards UK is holding?

The UK has a population of 65M. Thus there is a big market for all kinds of exports. As far as cards go this is a big one, but its the only one I can identify.

and by 2050 will be the largest in Europe, whereas Germany's is predicted to fall by about 10%

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#48

Post by tobltobs »

ben_w wrote: post #42
tobltobs wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Though I accept it’ll be a pain for e.g. finance companies which the EU requires to be based within the EU What kind of services does the UK export which do not fall into the finance category?

Software contractors?

Isn't the UK a net importer of software contractors?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#49

Post by nkkollaw »

virgilp wrote: post #35
nkkollaw wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but Germany will have less control over the UK. From what I can tell and have read Germany has huge influence on pretty much every country besides Poland and--perhaps--Hungary (I live in Poland, not sure about Hungary actually). Poland definitely thinks about its own citizens _first_, and _then_ at what's good for the EU, which is after all what politicians have been elected to do. I'm Italian and Italy is a me…

Whoa there. I'm not so sure about Poland, but I'm pretty sure that Orban looks after himself first, second and third... only then comes "citizens" and "EU", and the order there is not clear. In general, I'm deeply suspicious of politicians that claim "citizens first, EU second" - that seems counterproductive, unnecessary, and more likely to be empty populism than truth.

I'm only speaking from experience and can't really talk about Hungary.

As for Poland, I can tell you that the difference with Italy is like night and day.

As Italians, we are often asked to make sacrifices for Europe (and we did, look up "tesoretto"), like if we were in danger of being kicked out of the EU.

It's a complicated matter, but in general Italy is more corrupt and hardly takes any meaningful step to improve its citizen's lives, while Poland (although barely less corrupt if I remember correctly? Not sure) looks after Poland's interests first, and then at what Germany would like Europe to do. The result is that living here is about 100 times easier compared to Italy.

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