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Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

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Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#31

Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farag...

Ideal. That dodgy first vote is no good basis to make such changes on.

Think that's going to bite Nigel in a arse though.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how being outside the EU would help the UK against "Germany's dominance" Surely out of the EU means by definition that the UK has less control over Germany?

Sure, but Germany will have less control over the UK. From what I can tell and have read Germany has huge influence on pretty much every country besides Poland and--perhaps--Hungary (I live in Poland, not sure about Hungary actually). Poland definitely thinks about its own citizens _first_, and _then_ at what's good for the EU, which is after all what politicians have been elected to do. I'm Italian and Italy is a me…

Germany doesn't have much influence over the UK, largely because the UK isn't in the Euro.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#33
post #24
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious: what are the cards UK is holding?

The UK has a population of 65M. Thus there is a big market for all kinds of exports. As far as cards go this is a big one, but its the only one I can identify.

It goes both ways though; if UK citizens are importing goods it's not because they love the EU and want to support it in any way possible, it's because they want the goods. Making those imports more difficult or more expensive is obviously disadvantageous to the EU exporter, but it's also not exactly brilliant for the UK consumer.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how being outside the EU would help the UK against "Germany's dominance" Surely out of the EU means by definition that the UK has less control over Germany?

Sure, but Germany will have less control over the UK. From what I can tell and have read Germany has huge influence on pretty much every country besides Poland and--perhaps--Hungary (I live in Poland, not sure about Hungary actually). Poland definitely thinks about its own citizens _first_, and _then_ at what's good for the EU, which is after all what politicians have been elected to do. I'm Italian and Italy is a me…

Are you suggesting that Poland and Hungary are leechers?

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure how being outside the EU would help the UK against "Germany's dominance" Surely out of the EU means by definition that the UK has less control over Germany?

Sure, but Germany will have less control over the UK. From what I can tell and have read Germany has huge influence on pretty much every country besides Poland and--perhaps--Hungary (I live in Poland, not sure about Hungary actually). Poland definitely thinks about its own citizens _first_, and _then_ at what's good for the EU, which is after all what politicians have been elected to do. I'm Italian and Italy is a me…

Whoa there. I'm not so sure about Poland, but I'm pretty sure that Orban looks after himself first, second and third... only then comes "citizens" and "EU", and the order there is not clear.

In general, I'm deeply suspicious of politicians that claim "citizens first, EU second" - that seems counterproductive, unnecessary, and more likely to be empty populism than truth.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#36

Now Nigel (fucking) Farage is calling for a 2nd referendum. You can't make this shit up. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/11/nigel-farag...

This reminds me more and more of Greece, with Farage in the Varoufakis role.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015

The public voted "no", again, but obviously that made no difference to the deals on offer and no deal remained disastrous, so Syriza were ultimately forced to accept a worse deal: "On Monday, 13 July, the Syriza-led government of Greece accepted a bailout package that contains larger pension cuts and tax increases than the one rejected by Greek voters in the referendum"

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#38
post #4
post #2

This seems speculative and it effectively posits a worst-of-all-worlds situation resulting - one if which the UK is half inside the single market. Half inside such that it allows the flow of goods (the UK is a net importer) but not services (which we net export). This would be untenable, worse than a no-deal situation. And the basis of this speculation is that the EU is holding all the cards. I'm really not convinced…

Isn't a Canada-like solution exactly what current negotiations appear to work towards? Barnier presented a slide with options for the UK and a free trade agreement like with Canada was the only one that doesn't violate red lines set by the UK government. Such a free-trade agreement would allow most goods to flow relatively freely but doesn't have any provisions for services.

It's not at all clear though how compatible a Canada-style deal is with not having any sort of border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#39
post #30
post #9

I can't decide if Brexit is good or bad for the UK. On the one hand, there's the common market and freedom of movement. On the other there's Germany's dominance and lots of fragile banks. What would be worse, losing access to the free market or being around if the banks fail? Or would being outside the market make a difference if Deutsche Bank failed?

I thought London was supposed to be one of the major banking centres of Europe? So if the banks are fragile, the UK is just as exposed in that regards, or perhaps more exposed as it will no longer be (as?) able to ask the ECB for assistance?

The UK isn't in the Euro so the ECB doesn't really matter to the UK.

Re: Does Brexit end not with a bang but a whimper?

#40
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but Germany will have less control over the UK. From what I can tell and have read Germany has huge influence on pretty much every country besides Poland and--perhaps--Hungary (I live in Poland, not sure about Hungary actually). Poland definitely thinks about its own citizens _first_, and _then_ at what's good for the EU, which is after all what politicians have been elected to do. I'm Italian and Italy is a me…

Are you suggesting that Poland and Hungary are leechers?

> Are you suggesting that Poland and Hungary are leechers?

No, are you?

I'm suggesting what I wrote in my comment.

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