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A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

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Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wages are a proxy for buying power. Starting at the bottom of the Maslow’s pyramid and moving up, do today’s wages buy less of food, shelter, water, clothing, transportation, etc. than someone receiving wages 30/50/100/200 years ago?

Wages really do buy less house than 100 years ago. This would have been about 1920 when the Sears kit houses were invented. Look at this: http://eastsidehill.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/1927... The inflation calculator here: 32,424.83 in today's dollars for a respectable, quality 8 room house. Sure it doesn't include land or labour but there's no way an 8 room house costs 32k today. Today that would buy you a…

Modular houses can cost as low as $50/sqft. This Sears house looks like 900-1200 sqft, so 45k to 60k.

http://modularhomeowners.com/how-much-will-my-modular-home-c... https://blog.capterra.com/the-pros-cons-and-cost-of-modular-...

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's only the headcount for full-time employees. You've got to at least double it to account for all the contractors as well.

That ends up being rather circular though doesn’t it? Eg Amazon likely has someone who they employ but is contracted to sort of Netflix stuff. Who’s employee count do they add to?

It's not circular at all. Every single one of the employees I have in mind can be accounted for by Alphabet and Alphabet alone. We're talking security guards, cafe staff, customer support, janitors, receptionists, massage therapists, doctors, physical therapists, and any of dozens of different types of line of business stuff that doesn't use permanent employees (could be as simple as running the Google Books scanners or processing returned hardware).

It's pretty simple to determine -- Who's paying the salary? Your example, of a contractor who is employed by Amazon to work on Netflix integrations for Amazon products, would count for Amazon, as the work is paid for by Amazon and is for Amazon's benefit. It wouldn't count for Netflix; we're only talking about employees whose salaries are being directly paid for by a company, not larger second-order ecosystem-type effects. That gets a lot harder. What I'm talking about is exact.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was off by about 15k, apparently. https://www.recode.net/2017/7/24/16022210/alphabet-google-em...

That's only the headcount for full-time employees. You've got to at least double it to account for all the contractors as well.

Contractors are not employees.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#124
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's really not the author's point. I think this quote illustrates his point better: "Online shopping came along in the 1990s but retailers struggled to adapt business processes to the internet. They needed to build complementary infrastructure such as fulfillment centers, and, the authors note, customers had to adapt their habits, as well." The lag between commercialization and widespread adoption is wider than we…

If Sears and Service Merchandise had simply held out for a couple of years and put up a web store front - the Dow would look a little different today. Customers had adapted in the late 80's to something like Amazon (only problem was waiting for a few minutes after checkout) - but then they adapted to big box stores (made possible by big banks and supply chain software) - which ended up being a huge diversion of resou…

It's not clear to me why Service Merchandise (and its predecessors like Best Products, Consumers Distributing, and Unity Buying Service) all failed back then. They certainly couldn't compete now with the economies of scale of Walmart or Amazon.

It's odd that online grocery shopping is so huge now given Webvan's crash and burn in that space not all that long ago.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#125
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increasing worker productivity has always lead to fulfilling larger a demand. What is missing from all these discussions is that human wanting is essential infinite. The more productive you can be at making something, the more it will be taken for granted and a new thing wanted. Demand is infinite. Work is created to supply it. There is no amount of labour that will ever exhaust it. All automation does is increase th…

Demand is ultimately limited by human attention. There is only so much time someone can spend buying goods and services, especially if they intend to actually do something with them. And the demand for each individual product is far below that. There are some products virtually everyone will buy, but usually only once in a certain timeframe. Then there are specialized things like combines or milling machines where de…

You make some very solid points. However, most of the civilian guns are owned by people that most here would likely associate with being unable to cost-effectively provide any value to other humans at some point in the future. A large portion of those who are in the military associate with such people. Who is going to be performing said shooting? Just a thought.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#126

Income for the top 1% of the population is up over 400% over the past 30 years, while remaining largely flat for the rest of the workforce. The tech boom is well underway, it's just that only a tiny fraction of the population is capturing the vast majority of the benefits. The boom is not just about efficiencies, it's also about centralization and winner-take-all market dynamics.

Global absolute poverty has plummeted from 40% in 1985 to less than 10% in 2015: https://ourworldindata.org/slides/world-poverty/#/declining-...

Meanwhile, when poverty numbers are both a mark of shame for a country and fail to keep pace with the inflation of either consumer goods or housing?

We have a growing population of homeless folks too "rich" for public assistance. A lot of them already have jobs: https://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/09/18/nyregion/in-new-york-h... And it has only gotten worse since that was published.

The Hoovervilles that showed up before the great depression are back: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/05/america-home...

Dude, you have to either be drowning in kids or make nothing to fall under the official poverty line. But what catches people's eyes is the rise of those officially falling below that line. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/dec/15/america-extr...

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#127
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand is ultimately limited by human attention. There is only so much time someone can spend buying goods and services, especially if they intend to actually do something with them. And the demand for each individual product is far below that. There are some products virtually everyone will buy, but usually only once in a certain timeframe. Then there are specialized things like combines or milling machines where de…

You make some very solid points. However, most of the civilian guns are owned by people that most here would likely associate with being unable to cost-effectively provide any value to other humans at some point in the future. A large portion of those who are in the military associate with such people. Who is going to be performing said shooting? Just a thought.

Who is going to be performing said shooting?

Drones, of course.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's only the headcount for full-time employees. You've got to at least double it to account for all the contractors as well.

Contractors are not employees.

Yes, contractors are not full-time employees. So what? That's not at issue here. In this context, we're specifically talking about the number of jobs that are created by tech companies. It doesn't matter if you're paid on a W-2 or a 1099 from the tech company directly, or on a W-2 or a 1099 from some contracted company; if your living is being derived from working for that company in some capacity, it counts as a job created.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry about the edit, I thought I was waffling on too long. My position is not that you're wrong, it's that most of us are missing the subtext of our technological development which is that nearly all of it is computer related and we've papered over failures in a large number of technological areas by simply not talking about them (in society, not on HN). > Economists know that GDP measures are skewed by the fact tha…

> * New growth lumber is inferior to old growth lumber * I totally agree that many products are not "made to last" anymore. A fancy blender can do amazing things compared to an old one. But it will probably not last as long, and that's a problem.

The solution I have found is crowd sourced or expert recommendations from the following sources:

Kevin Kelly's Cool Tools book and website. Metafilter Reddit's Buy It For Life subreddit Finehomebuilding's Tool Guide

I find I buy less stuff, but of much higher quality or utility in this way. Some times I get something at a cheap price which works really well, like my Kiwi knives. Other times I have to be educated into realizing why something costs what it does and why or why not it's worth the money. Usually the answer is that the price is right because the object lasts much longer than the cheapo alternative or that the cheap version has a health drawback.

Recent Examples:

Merkur Safety Razor vs cartridge disposables ($$$) (factor of 100 decrease in cost!) Cast iron skillets vs Teflon pans ($$$) Tempered glass (container/bakeware) vs disposable trays/soon-to-be-cracked stoneware. ($$$) Induction cooking vs Gas (health) Expensive meat vs cheap meat. (health) Glycerin soap vs liquid soap/regular soap ($$$)

Here's a clear example. I buy a hard shave soap in a nice wooden bowl that costs $30. That's way more than a can of foam, but I've been using this for over four years now and it's only half used.

I don't do this with everything. I have a Silvercrest blender that has worked for a year, expected lifespan of three years I think, about $30 but buying a Vitamix or Blendtec at $500+ wouldn't 'pay me back' in a lifetime.

[waffle]

The China market isn't a problem if and only if it is understood by the consumer that they're getting disposables, so they should stock up and throw away more frequently. That requires money and space a lot of people do not have.

China production is immensely valuable for the bottom billions of the world who simply cannot plausibly afford West levels of wealth.

The rub is of course that you and I are getting lots of boxes with broken appliances/tools.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wages really do buy less house than 100 years ago. This would have been about 1920 when the Sears kit houses were invented. Look at this: http://eastsidehill.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/1927... The inflation calculator here: 32,424.83 in today's dollars for a respectable, quality 8 room house. Sure it doesn't include land or labour but there's no way an 8 room house costs 32k today. Today that would buy you a…

Modular houses can cost as low as $50/sqft. This Sears house looks like 900-1200 sqft, so 45k to 60k. http://modularhomeowners.com/how-much-will-my-modular-home-c... https://blog.capterra.com/the-pros-cons-and-cost-of-modular-...

Yes, but can you build the Sears house for 35k today without materials substitutions. I don't think you can, prices of commodities were probably lower then, which is not in line with received wisdom.

The reason why I mentioned a Tiny House or THOW is that the comparison is much closer, I think like most countries in the past there were no planning permission or taxes on house building. A THOW too is built by the owner, but it is 200-300 sq ft and not 1200 sq ft.

The website you listed suggests a 50k modular house costs closer to 130k to install once everything is worked through. Do you believe the Sears house cost ~150-200% more in the end? Sure they had to dig wells too but I don't think that is plausible.

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