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A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

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Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#111

Income for the top 1% of the population is up over 400% over the past 30 years, while remaining largely flat for the rest of the workforce. The tech boom is well underway, it's just that only a tiny fraction of the population is capturing the vast majority of the benefits. The boom is not just about efficiencies, it's also about centralization and winner-take-all market dynamics.

Global absolute poverty has plummeted from 40% in 1985 to less than 10% in 2015: https://ourworldindata.org/slides/world-poverty/#/declining-...

What is your assertion? Let me help: "The accumulation of wealth amongst the top % is cool because the ratio of absolute poverty has decreased."

I mean, that's awesome. The problem is just about everybody else is moving downwards.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wages really do buy less house than 100 years ago. This would have been about 1920 when the Sears kit houses were invented. Look at this: http://eastsidehill.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/1927... The inflation calculator here: 32,424.83 in today's dollars for a respectable, quality 8 room house. Sure it doesn't include land or labour but there's no way an 8 room house costs 32k today. Today that would buy you a…

> Tyler Cowen points out that there's not a single thing in your list of kitchen appliances that didn't exist in the 50s. People have highly temporally displaced notions, believing that things like washing machines or dishwashers are recent mass consumer items but they're not, they're nearly a century old. Economists know that GDP measures are skewed by the fact that “a car is not a car” — that is, a new car today is…

For example, the size of bedrooms, bathrooms, kitchens, closets, and garages has increased greatly in the last 100 years.

Have you been to the UK recently? :)

I don't know how much of an increase there was from about a century ago, but for the last few decades it's very much been going the other way. But the UK is something of a basket case when it comes to housing; people want to spend all their money on a mortgage.

Tangentially related, not long ago a minister suggested that people could keep a "jerry can" or petrol in their garage and was roundly mocked not only for the fire hazard, but for the casual belief that everyone has a garage.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your brain could be considered a general intelligence, and it only uses a couple of watts. Energy consumption isn't the issue. However, I agree. AI is a bit overhyped right now, and AGI is still pretty far away imo.

It only uses a couple of watts (well, ten times that, actually, about 20 Watts), but that's because neurons are incredibly efficient. The brain is an Exa-ops computer that only requires 20 Watts. If we used today's state of the art TPUs, we're looking at 10,000 to 100,000 times the energy consumption, so on the order of a Megawatt. The electricity costs alone would be higher than the typical human wage. A corollary:…

> an Exa-ops computer

I think it's misleading to compare the brain to a computer, the architecture differences mean that the brain is great at some stuff (vision for instance) and terrible at others (multiply 2 64-bit integers in your head).

I don't know if computational meat will ever be faster than machines at number crunching. (when I say machines I'm including next-generation computers beyond silicon too). But that's okay, each seems to complement each other's weaknesses.

http://www.righto.com/2014/09/mining-bitcoin-with-pencil-and...

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wages really do buy less house than 100 years ago. This would have been about 1920 when the Sears kit houses were invented. Look at this: http://eastsidehill.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/1927... The inflation calculator here: 32,424.83 in today's dollars for a respectable, quality 8 room house. Sure it doesn't include land or labour but there's no way an 8 room house costs 32k today. Today that would buy you a…

> Tyler Cowen points out that there's not a single thing in your list of kitchen appliances that didn't exist in the 50s. People have highly temporally displaced notions, believing that things like washing machines or dishwashers are recent mass consumer items but they're not, they're nearly a century old. Economists know that GDP measures are skewed by the fact that “a car is not a car” — that is, a new car today is…

Sorry about the edit, I thought I was waffling on too long.

My position is not that you're wrong, it's that most of us are missing the subtext of our technological development which is that nearly all of it is computer related and we've papered over failures in a large number of technological areas by simply not talking about them (in society, not on HN).

> Economists know that GDP measures are skewed by the fact that “a car is not a car” — that is, a new car today is much more than a new car from 30 years ago. It is safer and more comfortable, and consumers who pay the same amount in real dollars for a new car today are better off than consumers who bought a new car in years past.

That is true. I wouldn't dispute the affect of accumulated incremental changes to existing product lines, it's meaningful.

It's true in two directions. For instance many items today are inferior goods to past goods. Here is an example.

New growth lumber is inferior to old growth lumber. Something made out of wood such as siding, framing or window/door frames will require more frequent replacement due to rot, insects, weather. The old growth equivalents lasts for decades and even centuries. Today we rely on a mixture of more frequent maintenance and often toxic additives (protective coatings) and if that doesn't work we are forced to leap to far more complex, sometimes expensive replacements e.g. UPVC, I-Joists, LVLs.

I'm not saying the technology is bad. It's great engineering ingenuity, I'm stating its requirement exists because of a failure in our ability to match or improve qualitative tree farming and botanical biotechnology.

> So the “house” from the Sears catalog isn’t likely comparable to a house today with the same number of rooms. For example, the size of bedrooms, bathrooms, kitchens, closets, and garages has increased greatly in the last 100 years. New homes are more energy efficient and have safer wiring. Does this close the gap with a $32k house? Not in Silicon Valley, but there are parts of the country where the house (excluding the land, which Sears didn’t include either) is worth around $50k.

This is a big subject, I'll just throw one dart at you.

There is a hidden assumption. Why are your houses more energy efficient? It's because a barrel of oil doesn't cost $1 anymore.

There's a dark side to energy efficiency.

The side affects of higher insulation requirements is that houses cost more, studies on passive houses suggest 10%-20% more in the positive scenarios. The real problem though is that the most common forms of insulation offgas toxins and since houses are meant to be more air tight... The fact is that most buyers of houses and most builders of them aren't up to speed on what is required to do this sort of housing without health risks.

Right now most houses in my country, without the latest insulation requirements, suffer from moisture, mildew and mold problems, all of which is not positive for human health - this only gets worse with the new regulations because consumers don't understand the importance of hvac or building houses as holistic systems.

Most of my complaints seem to go away if we actually had a real biotech revolution.

When DNA was discovered, when Human Genome was decoded, they said the exact same things they are now saying about CRISPR, that's what troubles me.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tyler Cowen points out that there's not a single thing in your list of kitchen appliances that didn't exist in the 50s. People have highly temporally displaced notions, believing that things like washing machines or dishwashers are recent mass consumer items but they're not, they're nearly a century old. Economists know that GDP measures are skewed by the fact that “a car is not a car” — that is, a new car today is…

For example, the size of bedrooms, bathrooms, kitchens, closets, and garages has increased greatly in the last 100 years. Have you been to the UK recently? :) I don't know how much of an increase there was from about a century ago, but for the last few decades it's very much been going the other way. But the UK is something of a basket case when it comes to housing; people want to spend all their money on a mortgage.…

Personally I've always felt the existence of the garage to be an underrated contribution to American innovation.

I don't mean Americans aren't aware of it, I mean that sort of thing never comes up when Europeans discuss how to increase innovation. They will produce 'e-centers' and 'hubs' but I think most of the good stuff just comes from some people screwing around, probably with some things that don't rate much fanfare or seem adequate for a proposal.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#116
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The money will soon start to trickle down from the top 1% especially with the latest tax cuts. Be patient just a little more.

Sarcastic, or do you have some reason to believe that'll actually happen this time?

I could say if this tax cut doesn't help we'll just do another and then paradise for all starts. But that would be too sarcastic.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wages are a proxy for buying power. Starting at the bottom of the Maslow’s pyramid and moving up, do today’s wages buy less of food, shelter, water, clothing, transportation, etc. than someone receiving wages 30/50/100/200 years ago?

Wages really do buy less house than 100 years ago. This would have been about 1920 when the Sears kit houses were invented. Look at this: http://eastsidehill.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/1927... The inflation calculator here: 32,424.83 in today's dollars for a respectable, quality 8 room house. Sure it doesn't include land or labour but there's no way an 8 room house costs 32k today. Today that would buy you a…

[deleted]

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tyler Cowen points out that there's not a single thing in your list of kitchen appliances that didn't exist in the 50s. People have highly temporally displaced notions, believing that things like washing machines or dishwashers are recent mass consumer items but they're not, they're nearly a century old. Economists know that GDP measures are skewed by the fact that “a car is not a car” — that is, a new car today is…

Sorry about the edit, I thought I was waffling on too long. My position is not that you're wrong, it's that most of us are missing the subtext of our technological development which is that nearly all of it is computer related and we've papered over failures in a large number of technological areas by simply not talking about them (in society, not on HN). > Economists know that GDP measures are skewed by the fact tha…

> * New growth lumber is inferior to old growth lumber *

I totally agree that many products are not "made to last" anymore. A fancy blender can do amazing things compared to an old one. But it will probably not last as long, and that's a problem.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the electric engine can produce the same things ten times faster, you've just removed nine-tenths of the users. Sure, someone is still around, but then again, automatic factories still have some people supervising them - just much fewer.

Increasing worker productivity has always lead to fulfilling larger a demand. What is missing from all these discussions is that human wanting is essential infinite. The more productive you can be at making something, the more it will be taken for granted and a new thing wanted. Demand is infinite. Work is created to supply it. There is no amount of labour that will ever exhaust it. All automation does is increase th…

I completely disagree.

It has been a while that demand stalls. We can see it by observing that energy (time, investment, ...) doesn't go much any more to production means, but to advertisement, marketing, new forms of distribution, and so on. Production is enough in many domains (and there is no room for newcomers, it contracts rather than develops, you just compete to take shares from someone else, not that much to contribute to a booming market), the current problem and aim of companies are to invent ways to get people to consume more and more stuff.

Re: A Tech-Driven Boom Is Coming; Please Be Patient

#120
Maybe this was because I read TFA outside the paywall, but I find the included chart obnoxious in that it just has a vertical scale from 100 to 300, with no indication as to what that scale represents. Is it sales? Productivity? Number of press releases? Who knows?
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