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Cryptocurrency Analysis with Python – Buy and Hold

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Re: Cryptocurrency Analysis with Python – Buy and Hold

#61

Post by sean2 »

sillysaurus3 wrote: post #44
shuaib wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your dad is a wise man!

On the other hand, if he had put in $8 at $8, he'd have $16,000 today.

It's easy to see in retrospect that the beginning of bitcoin would've been a good place to throw in some meaningless quantities of cash, but I think once you divide by the number of small, potential investments you could make that wouldn't have made you money, and subtract the amount of time commitment to keep track of those investments, the outcome is less appealing.

(Obviously, some people knew it was about explode, but I'm looking at everything you hear your kid, or a co-worker giving you hot tips about, which was the boat I was in and it sounds like this kid's dad was in).

Re: Cryptocurrency Analysis with Python – Buy and Hold

#62

Post by heurist »

cortesoft wrote: post #56
AlexCoventry wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not irrational. It's an asset whose price is rising. If you want to make money, it's a good asset to trade. Just avoid hodling the bag when the music stops...

If the assumption is that the price will crash, then every dollar made by someone on bitcoin is a dollar lost by someone on bitcoin, since the underlying asset had no intrinsic value at all. Given that there are a lot of people who have more resources than me, and can do better research and better market manipulation, I am pretty sure I have a better chance of being in the group that loses the money.

Long-term it is hard to justify a conclusion that cryptocurrencies will fail as a technology. It's too big of a leap forward in too many industries. Short term, bitcoin might move too slowly and be surpassed by a competitor, or big money might manipulate the market and take advantage of people who have no idea what they're doing. I see these as issues that will diminish and fade over time as the technology matures. The solution is to stay attentive, invest with caution and hold on through the booms and busts. Not hard to do, all said and done, though I understand why many fear it.

Re: Cryptocurrency Analysis with Python – Buy and Hold

#63

Post by UncleMeat »

throwaway30yo wrote: post #52
davewritescode wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold has a price floor because it has some industrial utility and is useful for making jewelry. All that has to happen to destroy bitcoin is a flaw in the implementation. Seriously, look at OpenSSL and tell me the same issues aren’t possible in bitcoin. When did we get so trusting of software that we decided it’d be a good idea to base currency on a distributed algorithm?

The project can always fork if major issues are found. Bitcoin is very very far from a perfect solution, but it is a solution to many problems currencies have.

Given how hard it is for the community to do something as simple as increase the block size a tiny bit, I'm not confident that a fork could fix such a problem.

Re: Cryptocurrency Analysis with Python – Buy and Hold

#64

Post by shrimpx »

huphelmeyer wrote: post #54
jcoffland wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's easy to tell when the music has stopped. The hard part is anticipating the stopping.

Is it that easy? The Nasdaq bubble took roughly 6 years to inflate and 3 years to "pop". The real estate bubble took about 11 years to inflate and 6 years to fully deflate. Even Enron took the better part of a year to fully deflate. Maybe balloon is a better word than bubble.

People who can't tell it has popped are the ones keeping it on life support for years. :-)

Re: Cryptocurrency Analysis with Python – Buy and Hold

#65

Post by shrimpx »

htormey wrote: post #57
down wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if Gold can be irrational for 2k years, I don't see why not bitcoin can't, the only think gold has going for "longer history", yet HN folk love to say "past performance are not an...bla bla", yes it also has the 5% - 10% industrial use, but bitcoin has that too by being able to transfer it without third party, so will also not go to zero because will be useful as transfer of value.

Well ~78% of gold is used for jewelry and only ~19% is used as a store of value: https://goldprice.com/facts-about-gold

Jewelry and "store of value" are not mutually exclusive uses. Lots of people would buy "store of value" gold in the form of a nice necklace rather than a lump of metal.

Re: Cryptocurrency Analysis with Python – Buy and Hold

#66

Post by AlexCoventry »

heurist wrote: post #62
cortesoft wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the assumption is that the price will crash, then every dollar made by someone on bitcoin is a dollar lost by someone on bitcoin, since the underlying asset had no intrinsic value at all. Given that there are a lot of people who have more resources than me, and can do better research and better market manipulation, I am pretty sure I have a better chance of being in the group that loses the money.

Long-term it is hard to justify a conclusion that cryptocurrencies will fail as a technology. It's too big of a leap forward in too many industries. Short term, bitcoin might move too slowly and be surpassed by a competitor, or big money might manipulate the market and take advantage of people who have no idea what they're doing. I see these as issues that will diminish and fade over time as the technology matures. T…

Cryptocurrencies generically, sure. Permissioned blockchains are going to be huge. Medium to long term, decentralized validation mechanisms are going to get hit hard by double spends, and decentralized currencies will fall drastically when that happens.

Re: Cryptocurrency Analysis with Python – Buy and Hold

#67

Post by agumonkey »

dperfect wrote: post #9

I ran some tests of my own with simulated automated trading strategies over the past few years of historical Bitcoin price data. I used a genetic algorithm to encode a range of time parameters for MACD, along with different trading triggers and amounts. After a day or two of running it against a huge number of permutations and generations optimized for highest overall return, I came to a similar conclusion: the fitte…

I find this an impressive fit, did you come up with it on the spot or did you read about strategy simulation somewhere else ?

Re: Cryptocurrency Analysis with Python – Buy and Hold

#68

Post by eksemplar »

heurist wrote: post #62
cortesoft wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the assumption is that the price will crash, then every dollar made by someone on bitcoin is a dollar lost by someone on bitcoin, since the underlying asset had no intrinsic value at all. Given that there are a lot of people who have more resources than me, and can do better research and better market manipulation, I am pretty sure I have a better chance of being in the group that loses the money.

Long-term it is hard to justify a conclusion that cryptocurrencies will fail as a technology. It's too big of a leap forward in too many industries. Short term, bitcoin might move too slowly and be surpassed by a competitor, or big money might manipulate the market and take advantage of people who have no idea what they're doing. I see these as issues that will diminish and fade over time as the technology matures. T…

Considering banks have taken to use ripple, crypto obviously has it’s place. Bitcoin doesn’t really seem like it’ll have much of a future though.

Well unless people keep pretending the naked emperor has clothes, which they might.

Re: Cryptocurrency Analysis with Python – Buy and Hold

#69

Post by bhaak »

It's an open secret that "buy and hold" is hard to beat.

This is the reason why ETFs and other unmanaged asset options have become so popular in recent years.

But that insight is not new. The phrase "time in the market beats timing the market" goes way back and also popular stock market participants like Buffet or Kostolany have been saying this for decades.

With regards to cryptocurrencies, we are seeing in a condensed time frame the same development that for example the stock market went through. Cryptocurrencies might become a new asset class but that doesn't mean that it works financially differently than the other asset classes. So it should be no surprise that the same trading strategies end up being the most profitable.

Re: Cryptocurrency Analysis with Python – Buy and Hold

#70

Post by unethical_ban »

spookthesunset wrote: post #58
unethical_ban wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TA is "Technical Analysis", according to Google. You're telling me those indicators are NOT used by rules-based traders in the stock market?

The reason TA is a bunch of malarkey is because if somebody could simply look at a chart to predict future price movements than everybody else would do it to, making such prediction worthless. Same is true of anything else that is public knowledge. Once everybody has that knowledge, you lose the ability to profit off it. It is one of the core foundations that underpin up modern finance (something that Bitcoin advocat…

I can't argue on merit, and I agree that if everyone used it, it would be worthless. The insiders and professional market researchers would do best, then the group who uses TA, then the buy/hold crowd, then the shoot-the-rabbit sell-low-buy-high group.

I don't think TA is complete garbage, but I agree it's not a fundamental.

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