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Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

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Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#41

Post by platz »

jhiska wrote: post #29
SamReidHughes wrote: post #27

Careful! Your crime predictor might unfairly conclude that men are more likely to commit crimes than women.

OP wants an open sourced, data-based statistical model of where crime might occur (methodological flaws and all), and not an unasked-for politicized preaching about the supposed virtues of a subset of people over another subset of people.

As long as the methodological flaws are someone else's problem (the user/consumer), we don't need to take responsibility for building the tools that facilitate those methodological flaws, right?

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#42

Post by darpa_escapee »

chronic193 wrote: post #19
Asdfbla wrote: post #16

In any case, you shouldn't neglect the subtle but important sources of bias those pre-crime models can have. Here's an interesting talk about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfThopD7L1Y Basically, one instance of bias is the fact that many crime-prediction models are trained on police data, which means they will predict crime in places more often targeted by the police anyway. Then the model predictions even ampl…

We must ensure police are continuously allocated to crime-ridden areas, with or without AI, fair or not. If you are hinting at sending fewer police to black neighborhoods, you can bet that will never happen.

I lived in a town that neighbored another where police presence was about 4 fold compared to the former. You would be stopped while walking down the street in the neighboring town, meanwhile I could look a out my window and watch a few drug deals take place in an afternoon.

The difference? The neighboring town had a couple decades long reputation of being a hotbed for crime.

That reputation would be cemented in an AI system that was trained off of police data.

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#43

Post by mc32 »

bcyn wrote: post #34
mc32 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if the AI identifies insider trading at trading firms, banks, etc., we should beware that this would create a feedback loop to look more into the investment and banking sectors and will ignore the mom and pop insider traders? That they go where crime is rampant over where it isn't and that could be a bad thing?

I think it's not inherently bad to have a bias, but it's bad if you don't recognize it. In your example: If you train an AI on data that solely consists of trading firms & banks, you should recognize that it's an AI biased towards detecting activity at trading firms & banks, and that it might be lacking in other areas. It becomes dangerous when such an AI is marketed and assumed as unbiased and the source of truth fo…

If we don't have infinite resources (prosecutorial, for example), it makes sense to concentrate on the most salient loci of crime. If after enough resources are devoted to the most egregious locus, a different locus becomes the focus of crime and in turn gets the attention, that's not a bad thing...

In other words if done decently well, they'd obtain data from all places but focus on the problematic areas till they reach equilibrium and then you redirect to the next hotspot, no?

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#46

Post by otakucode »

mc32 wrote: post #33
Asdfbla wrote: post #16

In any case, you shouldn't neglect the subtle but important sources of bias those pre-crime models can have. Here's an interesting talk about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfThopD7L1Y Basically, one instance of bias is the fact that many crime-prediction models are trained on police data, which means they will predict crime in places more often targeted by the police anyway. Then the model predictions even ampl…

So if the AI identifies insider trading at trading firms, banks, etc., we should beware that this would create a feedback loop to look more into the investment and banking sectors and will ignore the mom and pop insider traders? That they go where crime is rampant over where it isn't and that could be a bad thing?

Mom and pop insider trading? How would that work, exactly? Or was it intended as a joke?

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#47

Post by ryanmaynard »

There is a project[1] + whitepaper[2] on projecting the likelihood of future white collar crimes written by Sam Lavigne, Francis Tseng, and Brian Clifton.

[1] https://thenewinquiry.com/white-collar-crime-risk-zones/ [2] https://whitecollar.thenewinquiry.com/static/whitepaper.pdf

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#48

Post by mc32 »

otakucode wrote: post #46
mc32 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if the AI identifies insider trading at trading firms, banks, etc., we should beware that this would create a feedback loop to look more into the investment and banking sectors and will ignore the mom and pop insider traders? That they go where crime is rampant over where it isn't and that could be a bad thing?

Mom and pop insider trading? How would that work, exactly? Or was it intended as a joke?

Small fry. People like Martha Stewart. She's wealthy of course, but her dipping in is of little consequence. Or your buddy at Google lets you in on something theyre not supposed to. It's the big sharks you care about.
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