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Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

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Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#21

Post by jjoonathan »

febin wrote: post #15
platz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't be surprised if those predictions are heavily biased against minorities and poor people. Do you care if they do? It's a similar problem to using ML to give people credit scores. If the training data includes a lot of minorities and poor people breaking laws / delinquent payments, then your ML will simply key on race/economic status as a predictor. So you've built a system that simply targets those groups. But y…

All I want to predict is time periods/locations which are vulnerable. Nothing more than that.

Racism is morally wrong but not mathematically wrong. P(criminal|black) > P(criminal), but if you observe that someone has black skin and treat them poorly because of it, you've done a bad thing. It doesn't matter that you were just following Bayesian reasoning because you're still hurting someone on the basis of something they can't control.

Lady Justice doesn't wear a blindfold as a fashion accessory. Discarding information is a key factor in nearly every established system of justice / morality. Refusing to do so (i.e. "just" running a ML algorithm) places you directly at odds with society's hard-earned best practices.

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#22

Post by godelski »

michaelmcmillan wrote: post #11

I am currently writing my master thesis on predictive policing using machine learning. Working with local police in Norway. Got a bunch of papers and articles you might find interesting. Hit me up: michaedm@stud.ntnu.no

I'd be interested to know how you filter the garbage data? (By questions here I know others are interested, so public response would be great)

I know people have done these types of studies before but found that they easily became bias, and thus there is a wariness of using it (like the judge AI who was more likely to convict black people). I'm not sure how it is in Norway, but I don't expect it to be much different from America, where there are places which are disproportionately convicted of crimes, where other areas such crimes are seen as infractions. This is really going to mess with the data and perpetuate the bad system.

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#23

Post by jensv »

bayesbiol wrote: post #17

Any such system is/would be potentially very dangerous. Crime data is not the same thing as crime. Populations that are over-policed are be disproportionately represented in any such data set, leading to higher prediction of crime, leading in turn more over-policing (feedback loop). I implore anyone attempting to build such a system to consider the serious issue of machine bias and it's implications in the real world…

Potential dangers of such a film are highlighted in the film Minority Report. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minority_Report_(film)

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#25

Post by myaso »

febin wrote: post #15
platz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't be surprised if those predictions are heavily biased against minorities and poor people. Do you care if they do? It's a similar problem to using ML to give people credit scores. If the training data includes a lot of minorities and poor people breaking laws / delinquent payments, then your ML will simply key on race/economic status as a predictor. So you've built a system that simply targets those groups. But y…

All I want to predict is time periods/locations which are vulnerable. Nothing more than that.

Take a look at crimereports.com. You might get lucky and find a good source on a per city or county basis, it's too fragmented overall too try this. Different countries might have different documentation standards and publishing guidelines for this kinda of data, might be worth a shot to look.

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#26

Post by platz »

febin wrote: post #15
platz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't be surprised if those predictions are heavily biased against minorities and poor people. Do you care if they do? It's a similar problem to using ML to give people credit scores. If the training data includes a lot of minorities and poor people breaking laws / delinquent payments, then your ML will simply key on race/economic status as a predictor. So you've built a system that simply targets those groups. But y…

All I want to predict is time periods/locations which are vulnerable. Nothing more than that.

> All I want to predict is time periods/locations which are vulnerable.

Ok, and to what end?

I assume someone else will be consuming these predictions, else you wouldn't bother at all.

What are your customers/users going to do with these predictions?

Or is that simply not your responsibility; someone else's problem?

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#29

Post by jhiska »

SamReidHughes wrote: post #27

Careful! Your crime predictor might unfairly conclude that men are more likely to commit crimes than women.

OP wants an open sourced, data-based statistical model of where crime might occur (methodological flaws and all), and not an unasked-for politicized preaching about the supposed virtues of a subset of people over another subset of people.
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