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What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

nytimes.com

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Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#151
Price? (for normal people)

Yes there are EVs cheaper than teslas at a comparable price to ICE cars, but they don't seem to have comparable performance and utility. I can't make an economically minded decision to buy an EV today unless i'm an EV enthusiast or I have lots of money to spend on luxury. (That was Elon Musks whole point of Tesla in the first place, but the market doesn't seem to have substantially shifted since)

Also for second hand cars, maybe it's different in the US, but in the UK the vast majority of people buy used cars at prices well below the "new price". It's going to take quite a while for EVs to trickle down to that price range for it to be economical for 90% of people to bother considering it.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not confusing. It is so much easier to make electric vehicles self-driving compared to the ICE vehicles. It may be economically feasible to do so in not so distant future. Real estate, including parking spaces is expensive. There was a good Freakonomics episode about that few years ago [1]. Main barriers to self-driving will soon be juridical, not technological. This is not just random internet rambling. I'm an engin…

> It is so much easier to make electric vehicles self-driving compared to the ICE vehicles. Why?

Faster response time in motor control, high torque in low revs. Makes math simpler.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#153
post #150
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I drive a hybrid with CVT. After getting used to its smoothness driving with a "normal gearbox" feels really awkward.

Electronic e-CVT (that hybrids like the Prius have) and mechanic push-belt CVT (non-hybrid) are completely different things mechanically.

Honda hybrids have mechanical CVT. Except the new Accord, which has no gearbox and uses electric drivetrain for slow speeds and direct engine coupling for highway.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#154
post #151

Price? (for normal people) Yes there are EVs cheaper than teslas at a comparable price to ICE cars, but they don't seem to have comparable performance and utility. I can't make an economically minded decision to buy an EV today unless i'm an EV enthusiast or I have lots of money to spend on luxury. (That was Elon Musks whole point of Tesla in the first place, but the market doesn't seem to have substantially shifted…

Every EV owner in my area seems to also own a gas car too. My landlord commutes in an EV but his wife has a normal suv for all the kid stuff. (Im in BC where long higheay trips are very much the norm.) EVs are fine if you can afford to keep a second vehicle to cover all the things they cannot do.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#155
post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope that we never reach the point where everyone buys an electric car. By then most big cities will heavily rely on a fleet of car pool, potentially self driving. That decreases the number of needed cars by an order of magnitude.

The number of cars is irrelevant when talking energy needs, only distance traveled matters. And I can definitely see how easily available self driving pool cars will increase rather than decrease the total distance driven, and thus increasing the total need for electricity.

That a good point, I completely missed that

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#156
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>continuous, smooth acceleration becomes the norm, This was achieved with CVT (Continous Variable Transmission). I did not like to drive one, but it already exists. Also I currently have a car with 7 gear automatic transmission and the acceleration is pretty smooth. >lurchy, awkward automatic transmissions fade into distant memory. Again, newer automatic transmission aren't bad anymore.

I've test driven a Hyundai Ioniq which comes with a six speed automatic transmission and if it's a representative example then I guess it's still not "it" - at least in my view. There's a level of smoothness and instant response that I haven't seen in cars which are not directly propelled by an electric motor.

6 is not enough. You need to test drive a BMW 7 or 8 gear transmission.

But I have never driven an electric car, so I can only compare with other automatic cars.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#157
I feel like the answer is "let some time pass". I think the majority of electric cars will eventually come form China. They are serious about the banning of non-electric cars and will be set up to deal with it once that happens. The pricepoint/quality will be attractive enough for non-Chinese markets and that'll be that.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#158
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we're no where near the point in which it's the main obstacle to further adoption Sure. I'm talking about universal adoption because the article is ("take over the world") > We don't drive especially far in a typical week This is a good point, EV range is already long enough that many urban drivers will not need to charge every day. > For some subset of street parkers, enough of that parking time will be spent at f…

> Sure. I'm talking about universal adoption because the article is ("take over the world") Once you reach a critical mass of users, taking over the world will be inevitable, even with some of the inconveniences. Finding a gas station, for example, will get harder for ICE drivers as EV vehicles take off (lots of gas stations will go out of business, so you'll have to drive longer to refill your car), auto shops capab…

> Once you reach a critical mass of users, taking over the world will be inevitable, even with some of the inconveniences. Finding a gas station, for example, will get harder for ICE drivers as EV vehicles take off (lots of gas stations will go out of business, so you'll have to drive longer to refill your car), auto shops capable of dealing with ICE will become more scarce and expensive, etc

It feels like you are making them mutually exclusive, it's far more likely there will be significant overlap... Do you remember the LCD TV transition? There was a period where you could basically get TVs with huge screens for free. That period mostly passed and now LCD TVs are also more reasonably priced anyway. Something similar will no doubt happen with the EV transition, unless an outside force ban them (i.e heavy handed government regulation, like Japan's 5 year car rule or something).

For the gas stations, that infrastructure will also transition, and those huge fuel tanks sunk into the ground aren't going anywhere, i'm sure they will continue to sell petrol along side EV charging stations.

Also all those millions of mechanics with decades of experience aren't about to suddenly forget all their ICE specific knowledge. Additionally parts from breakers yards will will probably be near free.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's clear that buses are vastly more efficient in terms of moving large numbers of people around, and so ride sharing alone (even automated) will just continue to tie up traffic. At a point, uber and lyft will have to introduce buses in order to keep their single-use services attractive. But, as long as there is private ownership, we won't have wide adoption of public transportation. Everywhere in the world I have t…

> People think cars give them freedom, They don't just think so, they know it > but they never think about the societal cost. There is a "societal cost" attached to everything. Housing, Eating, going to the restroom. Society should evolve to make known improvements to people's lives available to more people and not devolve to a point where most modern amenities are considered too expensive for most people. That said,…

I don't think your perspective is realistic. If you think people make reasonable choices, I have some sad news.

People "prefer" a lot of things. People prefer soda and potato chips and 1000-calorie meals. People prefer to not pay taxes for health care and public education. People prefer to get pregnant and not get married. People prefer to live in suburbs away from inner cities full of people who might be different than them. People prefer not to save money. People prefer to vote along party lines and watch TV news that aligns with their views rather than reality. And they also prefer to drive individual cars which are highly likely to injure or kill them, or own handguns which are also likely to injure or kill them, and yet rant like paranoid lunatics if they have to get on a plane with a guy in a turban.

That being said, I know a lot of people around the world who prefer public transportation. It gives them time to read, to communicate. And like you mentioned, it is faster than commuting by car. It is, of course, also vastly cheaper than owning a car. But it also enables people to make more money by getting better jobs, without having to invest in a car, which is often a significant impediment.

> Society should evolve to make known improvements to people's lives available to more people

I agree! Like public transportation.

> and not devolve to a point where most modern amenities are considered too expensive for most people

Kind of like cars, an amenity which is often needed to get a job, but also ties people up in debt from loans and maintenance costs and insurance costs and registration costs and parking tickets and parking lot fees and traffic tickets, making it harder to make a living.

You're saying cars should be made cheaper, of course, but this is absolutely ridiculous. Since 1967, the cost of a car (adjusted for inflation) has either stayed the same or risen. There is no indicator at all that cars in this market will get cheaper any time soon. Other markets have cheaper cars, either because of regulatory influence, or because they simply produce cars at rates that their people can afford. Which means cheaper cars could be sold here, but manufacturers know they can make more money here.

So - what would a "reasonable" choice be? To go into debt to own a transportation method they don't need? Or to buy an SUV so they can drive to Starbucks and spend $4 on a coffee?

People are idiots, and we should not define the terms of our society based on their whims alone.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is so much easier to make electric vehicles self-driving compared to the ICE vehicles. Why?

Faster response time in motor control, high torque in low revs. Makes math simpler.

What maths? I don't see what I'm missing:

Normal acceleration and maintaining speed is trivial to handle with simple control loops. This isn't like e.g. phase detect autofocus where you want to supply a single input at the start to get to the correct end position; accelerating a massive vehicle takes a significant amount of time, such that a control loop has to: - gradually increase the accerator input from the start point - decrease accelerator input as the desired speed is approached - maintain a constant speed

This is trivial for a control engineer.

In some ways ICEs are easier than electric motors - you get free damping on your accelerator input!

Outside of normal driving, you also have emergencies, where surely the alternatives are basically braking, steering, and hard acceleration, which respectively require engine inputs of 0 (i.e. no gas), no change (or again 0), and max. And hard acceleration is almost never the answer to emergencies anyway.

When does a self driving car need to know "provide exactly X power to the engine", where X is none of [0, a little less than currently, no change, a little more than currently, max]?

Source for control loops: On a general engineering course bachelors, our 1 days labs included one of which a part was writing speed control software for ICEs and one of which a part was writing position control software for an electric helicopter.

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