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What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

nytimes.com

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Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#131

Post by drcross »

f_allwein wrote: post #113

How about: We need to shift from individual car ownership to more public transport? Sure it will be great if cars turn electric, but that does not solve issues like crowded streets etc. This would be partly addressed if cars were self driving and shared, i.e. would spend less time standing around unused. Nevertheless, I assume (=don't have data) that public transport would be much more efficient than electric cars in…

If cars moved to mobility as a service model instead of car ownership people wouldnt care about getting into a small two seater car instead of owning a four seater for the times they do need it. You could probably fit six autonomous smartcars into the road space where one F150 is manually driven so we have lots of space to increase road density.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#132

Post by kozak »

samcheng wrote: post #37
paol wrote: post #33

These articles keep omitting a pretty big barrier to adoption: street parking. (Maybe it's a function of US being suburb-centric? But at least the New York Times ought to know better.) One of 2 things needs to happen, either charging technology improves to the point where you can charge at a gas station in a span of time comparable to refueling a conventional car, or all street parking spots need to be fitted with ch…

Or street parking needs to make way for bike lanes, transit, and pedestrian space! To be honest, though, electrifying public parking isn't that outlandish either. Fairbanks, Alaska has done it for a while to power engine block heaters.

Wow, an image search for the query "engine block heaters public parking" gave me a peek of how our all-electrified automotive future is going to look like. Impressive.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#133

Post by tyu100 »

Rare metal shortages are self-solving. There's already dozens of mining juniors prospecting in western countries and China has near-limitless resources. Additionally, graphite, lithium and cobalt are substitutable to some degree.

Anecdotally, the resource exploration stock message board forum I follow has almost given up on oil and gas companies and has moved to cleantech (or marijuania). Sign of the fast-arriving future.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#134

Post by lazyjones »

peterwwillis wrote: post #128
f_allwein wrote: post #113

How about: We need to shift from individual car ownership to more public transport? Sure it will be great if cars turn electric, but that does not solve issues like crowded streets etc. This would be partly addressed if cars were self driving and shared, i.e. would spend less time standing around unused. Nevertheless, I assume (=don't have data) that public transport would be much more efficient than electric cars in…

It's clear that buses are vastly more efficient in terms of moving large numbers of people around, and so ride sharing alone (even automated) will just continue to tie up traffic. At a point, uber and lyft will have to introduce buses in order to keep their single-use services attractive. But, as long as there is private ownership, we won't have wide adoption of public transportation. Everywhere in the world I have t…

> People think cars give them freedom,

They don't just think so, they know it

> but they never think about the societal cost.

There is a "societal cost" attached to everything. Housing, Eating, going to the restroom. Society should evolve to make known improvements to people's lives available to more people and not devolve to a point where most modern amenities are considered too expensive for most people.

That said, pretty much everybody hates public transport everywhere in the world. It's better than nothing of course and in some densely-populated areas it's actually an improvement and faster than using a car (the subway). But given a reasonable choice, people prefer having their own cars, just like they prefer to have their own homes instead of sharing one with dozens of other people. Whatever the "societal cost" may be (what's the cost of individual housing?).

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#135

Post by explainplease »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #106
PeterisP wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Charging a car requires a nontrivial amount of electricity, so it's not sufficient to add a circuit breaker / socket, you also need a payment infrastructure unless e.g. the municipality is willing to sponsor the energy costs of everyone driving.

Parking spaces in dense areas already act as a huge subsidy toward cars, so I don't think electrical cost is a deal-breaker. Or you glue on half a parking meter to turn the electricity on and off.

> I don't think electrical cost is a deal-breaker.

Do you have any numbers, or are you guessing?

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#136

Post by rohit2412 »

unabst wrote: post #119
paol wrote: post #33

These articles keep omitting a pretty big barrier to adoption: street parking. (Maybe it's a function of US being suburb-centric? But at least the New York Times ought to know better.) One of 2 things needs to happen, either charging technology improves to the point where you can charge at a gas station in a span of time comparable to refueling a conventional car, or all street parking spots need to be fitted with ch…

You're still talking today. By the time electric takes over, there is a good chance self driving will be here also. That's when this becomes possible: Your car will drop you off, go get charged, and come back if you want it to, or just park off-site and pick you up in the morning. But now think about zip cars and Uber/Lyft. The price of point to point transit will fall from human wage level to robot wage level. Imagi…

> By the time electric takes over, there is a good chance self driving will be here also.

Either you are very unoptimistic about electric cars, or have an unrealistic view of what self driving is going to mean.

Electric cars are gaining traction, and by all accounts will be 10-20% of new cars by say 2023-2025. A completely driverless self driving car on the other hand is still a fantasy, despite Elon musk's constant claims.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#137

Post by 3chelon »

I'm totally in favour of electric cars, but I'm surprised the article never mentioned the problem of sourcing all the power.

There have been a lot of contradictory claims over how many more power stations would be needed for a fully-electric future, with some sources claiming the UK alone would need an extra ten nuclear power plants, and other sources massively downplaying that, but clearly if everyone was driving an EV by, say, 2040, then that only gives us 20 years to work out and deliver the answer.

NIMBYism and hyper-inflated public infrastructure costs mean this could be a significant problem, both in terms of cost and feasibility.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#138

Post by Tade0 »

chrisper wrote: post #56
_greim_ wrote: post #15

> Drivers will have to shed their attachment to the sound, smell and feel of gas-powered engines. I for one will not feel the least bit sad when continuous, smooth acceleration becomes the norm, and lurchy, awkward automatic transmissions fade into distant memory. I'll probably feel slightly nostalgic about the sound and smell of fuel-burning cars someday, but it won't inform my buying choices in the slightest.

>continuous, smooth acceleration becomes the norm, This was achieved with CVT (Continous Variable Transmission). I did not like to drive one, but it already exists. Also I currently have a car with 7 gear automatic transmission and the acceleration is pretty smooth. >lurchy, awkward automatic transmissions fade into distant memory. Again, newer automatic transmission aren't bad anymore.

I've test driven a Hyundai Ioniq which comes with a six speed automatic transmission and if it's a representative example then I guess it's still not "it" - at least in my view.

There's a level of smoothness and instant response that I haven't seen in cars which are not directly propelled by an electric motor.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#139

Post by alex_duf »

3chelon wrote: post #137

I'm totally in favour of electric cars, but I'm surprised the article never mentioned the problem of sourcing all the power. There have been a lot of contradictory claims over how many more power stations would be needed for a fully-electric future, with some sources claiming the UK alone would need an extra ten nuclear power plants, and other sources massively downplaying that, but clearly if everyone was driving an…

I hope that we never reach the point where everyone buys an electric car. By then most big cities will heavily rely on a fleet of car pool, potentially self driving.

That decreases the number of needed cars by an order of magnitude.

Re: What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World

#140

Post by explainplease »

ahartmetz wrote: post #129
kuro68k wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am on my second Nissan Leaf and can tell you that your concerns are largely unfounded. Most charging is opportunistic, and when you do need to do a big evacuation a Tesla sized battery can last longer than you can safely drive. In fact in the EU legal limits on commercial drivers are already exceeded by battery tech. As for wearing out, taxi companies with leafs have over 200k on the packs and they are still good.…

"When you do need to do a big evacuation a Tesla sized battery can last longer than you can safely drive" This is plainly wrong. Let's say it's a Tesla Model S which has a real world range of about 400 km. That is about four hours of driving. I sometimes drive 600 km easily, with one longer break to eat and maybe a few shorters breaks to pee or just get out of the car and walk around a bit. Your other statements are…

That's not all:

  > No more regenerative braking
  > 35 mile range now
  > Using the QC (quick charger?) more than once a day voids battery warranty
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