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What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

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Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#181
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "growth" (i.e. inflation) before the inevitable crash What you need to know is this: Financial crashes are an eternal cycle, they will never go away. Unless there is fundamental societal change. Here's why: Financial crashes are business to a couple of extremely powerful/rich people. After every crash, assets are undervalued. Rich people have the financial cushion to not be impacted in the slightest way by such cra…

Please don't take offence, but you've misunderstood the mechanics of how wealth is accumulated. The wealthiest people in the world are wealthy by virtue of the gains made on the assets they already have. So, in a bull market, their assets grow while someone without assets is left behind. The inverse is true, too - they'll proportionally lose to the same degree in a crash - as while a poor person may have no investmen…

"the wealthy person's investments will crash in line with the market. There won't be a financial cushion, at least not a significant one."

...

"This is clearly false - wealthy people don't keep mountains of cash lying around as they would miss out on the growth in bull markets, and as a result their wealth would decrease relative to their peers."

I read with great interest the two volumes that Niall Ferguson wrote of the history of the Rothschild family.[1]

It's a fascinating work that serves well to bridge the gap of European history between Napolean and World War One.

I bring it up here because the Rothschild family did indeed do exactly what the parent comment suggested that "rich people" do. They quietly did their simple banking business year after year, piling up profits and assets that were repeatedly poured into down markets when they viewed that assets had become cheap.

This was not market timing - this was simply patience. The down market always comes and their simple, boring factoring and discounting was always reliable.

[1] _The House of Rothschild_ ("The World Banker")

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#182

What is the best thing to do with my savings? I am thinking about investing, and read up on it. One thing I don't understand is where to put money to minimize the impact of a recession. Government bonds? But then Graham says, I think, bonds prices also rise in a bull market, and fall afterwards.

Diversify yo' assets. I recommend starting with ETFs, ensuring you aren't locked into specific companies. And ETFs don't have the specific conditions of mutual funds. Several stock ETFs; I suggest one tuned for growth and one tuned for dividends. If you aren't sure, the Vanguard VOO ETF is a solid starting point. At least one bond ETF: I'm inexperienced there, but they tend to move in inverse correlation to stocks. S…

US ETFs are no longer diversification. Now that everybody is doing it, when market goes down ETFs will fall from sky as well at same or faster rates. More importantly, most ETFs are tied with one market, one country and one currency. For true diversification, you want to have gold, oil, Chinese, Russian, Asian along with usual American ETFs.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#183
post #44
post #12

A bubble in slow motion, someone called the present economic environment. I think it's an apt description. Extreme "quantitative easing" (I refuse to take fed speak seriously) has only taken effect very, very slowly. Why? Because all it really was was recapitalizing banks which had enormous gaping holes on their balance sheets after 2008. They have been able to fill the tanks now, getting money hot off the presses fo…

> "growth" (i.e. inflation) before the inevitable crash What you need to know is this: Financial crashes are an eternal cycle, they will never go away. Unless there is fundamental societal change. Here's why: Financial crashes are business to a couple of extremely powerful/rich people. After every crash, assets are undervalued. Rich people have the financial cushion to not be impacted in the slightest way by such cra…

What is more obviously manufactured is bad tax policy, as in way too low top end tax rates. That has incentivized wealthy people to invest in real estate and the stock market, rather than in the working class. That's why a house costs on average 24 times more today than in 1960, and yet wages are only 8 times more today than in 1960. And the tax rates on these capital gains are lower than middle class payroll and income tax combined. Tax policy has incentivized top end hoarding. This is not investing. It's a neo-feudal give away.

The top end tax bracket needs to go well above 50% to make it riskier to invest what's left in those markets, rather than taking a risk on starting or growing a business, the expenses of which are 100% tax deductible.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said asset classes ;-) Bitcoin is not an asset in financial terms.

But cash is?

I would call Bitcoin a "speculative asset" right now, actually. Compared to major currencies, it is highly volatile.

Bitcoin also is, in some sense, similar to a fiat currency (Bitcoin has no intrinsic value) without having the typical fiat currency backing (a supporting government, complete with armies, laws and their enforcement agencies, etc. sponsoring the currency). This adds a degree of risk to Bitcoin most other currencies do not have.

Definitely I'd see it as an asset though.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#185
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin does not correlate with anything. Should people diversify into it?

I said asset classes ;-) Bitcoin is not an asset in financial terms.

It will be, if it continues to not-correlate with anything (not become like gold for example) and stay usable (all miners leave).

It will be so interesting how Bitcoin price behaves in the next recession.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#186
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Economy is tied to real consumption of finite resources. As we mine, fish, over harvest, burn, etc. our way out of some resources, we tend to find substitutes or other efficiencies to begin again. But... there is the question of whether our economic growth brings us closer to the absolute carrying capacity of spaceship Earth. So yeah, economic growth can’t continue forever without hitting some bio-physical constraint…

>But... there is the question of whether our economic growth brings us closer to the absolute carrying capacity of spaceship Earth. Are we inching up on the absolute carrying capacity of Earth? Perhaps. But what about the carrying capacity of the Sun? We are barely capturing a fraction of the energy the Sun sends our way. Think about what we could do if our ability to harvest renewable energy in the next two decades…

The following blog post[1] should be required reading for everyone everywhere. It talks about physical constraints on economic growth.

The main point he makes is that, regardless of how inexhaustable our sources of energy are, increases in our rate of energy use are still necessarily limited.

He notes:

1. Economic growth is always accompanied by increase in energy consumption.

2. Nearly all energy consumption (whether that be running current through computer chips, burning fuel in combustion engines, or just metabolizing food) has the effect of heating the surrounding land, air, or water.

3. If humanity's rate of energy use increases 2.3% every year, then the associated heat dissipation will be enough to cook us all within about 4 centuries.

4. Economic growth without an increased rate of energy use is not obviously impossible a priori, but it's definitely hard to imagine.

[1] https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist...

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But cash is?

I would call Bitcoin a "speculative asset" right now, actually. Compared to major currencies, it is highly volatile. Bitcoin also is, in some sense, similar to a fiat currency (Bitcoin has no intrinsic value) without having the typical fiat currency backing (a supporting government, complete with armies, laws and their enforcement agencies, etc. sponsoring the currency). This adds a degree of risk to Bitcoin most oth…

Not being government backed does add risk? Bitcoin cannot declare bankrupty, but governments can (ok, affecting bonds primarily). Also, governments can abandon currencies and use different ones.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#188
post #55
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "growth" (i.e. inflation) before the inevitable crash What you need to know is this: Financial crashes are an eternal cycle, they will never go away. Unless there is fundamental societal change. Here's why: Financial crashes are business to a couple of extremely powerful/rich people. After every crash, assets are undervalued. Rich people have the financial cushion to not be impacted in the slightest way by such cra…

> And no, this is not conspiracy, it's pure economics. If everything you’re postulating here is “pure economics”, would you mind placing it in the context of an economic framework for the sake of precision? Something rudimentary like the macro credit-debt cycle is fine. As it stands, your exposition appears fairly politically loaded, and your specific claim that crashes are “manufactured” rather than an emergent side…

If you give a guy $10.000, x10 leverage and a trading system; and we assume he has low emotion control and is bad at math. The result is that he'll burn these $10k getting margin called.

1. You can't get all people to play this game.

2. You can't get people margin called if the stock price doesn't drop enough.

You can get 1 if you complicate loans (Mortgage based securities); and you can get 2 if you make the issue related to the whole economy. So people get bankrupted instead of margin called. Their house is sold instead of the stock.

Same game, bigger market.

That being said I don't believe the "rich" or the "powerful" are doing it. I don't believe in Conspiracy theories. I think this "movement" is inherent in the nature of the market and the humans who play around it. It burns both the poor and the rich, but it magnifies inequality whether by making the rich richer or creating new riches.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#189
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin does not correlate with anything. Should people diversify into it?

Sure it does. During a recession, people will lose their jobs, the value of their assets will go down, etc. Do you think they won't cash out any of their BTC in order to cover expenses?

Even in a recession people look for investments. If stocks, bonds, etc all go down they look further. Gold has gained value during the last recessions.

Re: What to Worry About in This Surreal Bull Market

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will not happen before 2020, this market could easily run for another decade.

Back in 2000 in a library I saw a book by 2 economists that had Nobel Prize. The second part of the title was something like "Are you ready for the next 20 years of uninterrupted growth ?". Then one year later we had the .com crash :-)

The good thing is we’ll be able to look back in 5-10 years or so at this post and see if I was right. See you in 2022.
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