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Why Japan Is Doomed

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Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#71

Post by Ardit20 »

nathanb wrote: post #9

What does it look like when a nation becomes insolvient? How does it affect its citizens? Its public services?

I think Russia went bankrupt in the 90s when communism collapsed. So The IMF forced them to sell of their assets, like gas companies, oil, energy, whatever else. People bought them really cheap and are now billionaires, or as the media is free to call them Russian oligarchs.

It has taken two decades for Russia once again to at least try and act like a super power in the world stage.

As for normal people, well I would suppose they got a bit richer because well they were starving in 1989 when communism collapsed so really things could only get better. But if it happened to a rich country like America then it would probably turn to a second rate country like poor India or Mexico. There would be no cleaner to clean your street to start with...

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#72

Post by stretchwithme »

caf wrote: post #63
stretchwithme wrote: post #33

We're borrowing 43% of our budget? Talk about unsustainable. I would seriously make plans for when the US is forced to stop this destructive pattern. Its going to be ugly.

The US is in a somewhat unique position - as the de facto reserve currency, it can inflate its debts away. Like Monopoly's "Get Out Of Jail Free" it's a card you can only play once, though.

BECOMING the reserve currency is very beneficial. The US printed over 4 trillion bucks and it just went into vaults somewhere in exchange for $4 trillion bucks worth of stuff.

But when we blow it and are deep in debt with declining ability to borrow cheaply, we could also lose this special status. and $4 trillion will come back and make goods more expensive for everybody stuck with no far-less-desirable paper.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#73

Post by pavs »

potatolicious wrote: post #27
masklinn wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and I was very surprised by their lack of work ethic/prospect from my first time in Japan Why would you be surprised by their "lack of work ethics"? They got fucked hard, so it's understandable that they aren't going to care much for "the man" anymore: they were told their contract was to work like mad in their studies, get to a good university and end up landing a good job in a multinational where they'd work thei…

Oh bullshit - I'm surprised you got as many upvotes given that this is supposed to be the entrepreneurial bunch (and our previous mega-thread involving Scott the useless college grad). Boo hoo, so the economic sucks and you were lied to your whole life about how your employment situation was going to work. So? This does not excuse laziness and a crappy work ethic. Perhaps their chronic unemployment stems from the fac…

> boo hoo, so the economic sucks and you were lied to your whole life about how your employment situation was going to work. So? This does not excuse laziness and a crappy work ethic.

5 bucks says you never had to spend more than few months looking for a job after graduation.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#74

Post by kragen »

potatolicious wrote: post #41
minouye wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are implying that the opportunities in Japan are equal to those available in the US, then I wholeheartedly disagree. Both in terms of startup culture or slogging through a corporate job, Japan is vastly different from the US. Opportunities exist everywhere, and a poor economy is certainly no excuse for apathy. However, discounting the challenges the economy posed to the rising generation of Japanese is pretty…

I did not mean to make light of Japan's economic challenges in the past two decades - nor do I mean to imply that Japanese opportunities are equal to that of the US. What I mean is, Japan is still an industrial power, and far from a decrepit backwater - while opportunities were not what they once were, they are still there for those who seek it. If anything, a shitty economy and hard times should create people who fi…

Japan is still an industrial power, but that does not imply that "opportunities ... are still there for those who seek [them]". It means that there are opportunities. To whom they are available is quite contingent upon social conditions. It is quite common for opportunities to exist, but to still only be available to a tiny group of people.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#75

Post by gaius »

Ardit20 wrote: post #69
caf wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is in a somewhat unique position - as the de facto reserve currency, it can inflate its debts away. Like Monopoly's "Get Out Of Jail Free" it's a card you can only play once, though.

Am sure Japan can do that also since they have their own currency and can print plenty of money. One person mentioned some numbers however, such as 2500 Yuan per hour. I am sure that figure one day was 25 Youan, but inflate and inflate, some zeros have been added. I guess however having prices go up also, such that say bread is 1000 Yuan you do not get real inflation if you print slowly. But, I doubt anyone want to t…

The US can inflate ultimately because the USD is what oil and other major commodities is traded in. Anyone who needs to convert their currency into another to trade doesn't have that luxury. Not even the CHF, the EUR or the GBP.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#76

Post by masklinn »

bpyne wrote: post #44
noodle wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what is the expected outcome if someone fights hard for years and sees no success? is it never justified for someone to fight hard, see they're not getting anywhere, and then drop their effort level down to match the situation they're in, permanently or temporarily?

This hopelessness shows up in the US as well. It's the people who fall off the unemployment stats and have given up looking for work. Another group of people stay on government assistance because they realize that paying for daycare, rent, etc. would add up to more than they make. So, they live off government assistance as long as possible.

> Another group of people stay on government assistance because they realize that paying for daycare, rent, etc. would add up to more than they make.

FWIW I've seen that happen in France: the social safety net tends to be pretty strong, but the transition from that safety net to its absence is anything but smooth. I'd go as far as to say it's pretty abrupt.

A decade or so ago, my parents started employing a domestic worker to take care of laundry, sweeping, that kind of stuff. First one was a professional, second one was somebody who'd been "on the dole" for a long time and trying to get out of it (single mother, in her 40s, two children). Went swimmingly early on, but a pair of quarters in she realized she had gone above some kind of cut-off, and as a result she didn't qualify for some govt assistance as well as e.g. government-sponsored holidays for her children. That added up to at least twice what she actually earned.

She decided to tough it up and keep trying to climb out, but I'd have understand dropping out: when you start making efforts and all of a sudden your standard of living drops sharply, it's not exactly worth it.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#78

Post by ajb »

d2viant wrote: post #23

The part I don't understand is why Japanese citizens would accept such low returns on their investment for so many years, when so many investments outside of Japanese government debt would give them higher yields. Is it a cultural thing? Is it just pure altruism? Do they want to support their government that much that they're willing to ignore better investments for their savings?

Currency risk. Lots of Japanese do try to invest abroad (the famous 'Mrs Watanabe'), many of whom have been hurt badly by the recent currency fluctuations.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#79

Post by ramchip »

masklinn wrote: post #40
potatolicious wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh bullshit - I'm surprised you got as many upvotes given that this is supposed to be the entrepreneurial bunch (and our previous mega-thread involving Scott the useless college grad). Boo hoo, so the economic sucks and you were lied to your whole life about how your employment situation was going to work. So? This does not excuse laziness and a crappy work ethic. Perhaps their chronic unemployment stems from the fac…

Japan does not have a culture of innovation (that kind of innovation anyway) and nothing in their life or education ever gave them the tools for this. Not to mention being an entrepreneur is a sure way to socially kill oneself in japan, this idea is still widely shunned and looked down upon. You're looking at people who grew without arms and are asking how comes they can't tie their shoelace. And it seems other peopl…

> Not to mention being an entrepreneur is a sure way to socially kill oneself in japan, this idea is still widely shunned and looked down upon.

I suppose we may be talking about a different age group, but I'm in a theatre circle at a Japanese university, and out of the 7 people who joined this year, 3 aim to start a business (one in Economy, one in Business, me in Engineering). Most people who ask me about it seem to have a reaction of "it sounds so awesome, but I could never do this". I think the way of thinking is slowly changing.

I agree with the rest of your post. I've been especially disappointed by the lack of innovation at research labs in what is supposed to be a top university.

Re: Why Japan Is Doomed

#80

Post by Ardit20 »

gaius wrote: post #75
Ardit20 wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am sure Japan can do that also since they have their own currency and can print plenty of money. One person mentioned some numbers however, such as 2500 Yuan per hour. I am sure that figure one day was 25 Youan, but inflate and inflate, some zeros have been added. I guess however having prices go up also, such that say bread is 1000 Yuan you do not get real inflation if you print slowly. But, I doubt anyone want to t…

The US can inflate ultimately because the USD is what oil and other major commodities is traded in. Anyone who needs to convert their currency into another to trade doesn't have that luxury. Not even the CHF, the EUR or the GBP.

What they can't just start trading in Euro? Do they have some sort of contract or is there some sort of law which says you can trade oil only in dollars?

I think if the dollar became a fonny currency people would switch quickly. It would for example not make any sense for a British man to trade in dollars if he gets say one pence for every dollar. Especially if by the next day it is worth 0.5 pence.

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