Earlier quoted context omitted.
almost 2am in japan - waiting till the morning.
Something I would never expect Bruce Wayne to say!
Even Bruce Wayne has to sleep sometime.
Why Japan Is Doomed
21–30 of 94 posts
Re: Why Japan Is Doomed
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
I totally agree. I should add that I was surprised merely because in my head, I had this notion that Japanese people were mostly hard working and true to their crafts, before I had entered Japan. To add, young Japanese people also don't have the option of being an entrepreneur, because that notion is still widely shunned by society. So they toil in misery for many many years without escape.
So how are new companies created in Japan? Doesn't someone have to stick their neck out and be an entrepreneur? You would think that if some of these young Japanese people started companies and hired some of their contemporaries, you could get around that societal disapproval. I don't think any society would mind having companies that brought them wealth and employment.
For Japan, it's all about 'tradition'. So society/entranched interests resist changes heavily. For example, the entrepreneur who started 1000-yen haircut chain in Japan (severely undercutting the barbershops) used to get death threats on his life, and had to fight tooth and nail to get spaces in shopping centers.
You should see the blank stare I get, when they ask me about how to be successful in life (I'm a bit older and have my own company) and I tell them to start a business.
Re: Why Japan Is Doomed
#23The part I don't understand is why Japanese citizens would accept such low returns on their investment for so many years, when so many investments outside of Japanese government debt would give them higher yields.
Is it a cultural thing? Is it just pure altruism? Do they want to support their government that much that they're willing to ignore better investments for their savings?
Re: Why Japan Is Doomed
#24What does it look like when a nation becomes insolvient? How does it affect its citizens? Its public services?
It looks a lot like how Greece was looking a few weeks back. (Probably still is looking in all likely-hood) Most of the national debt is written off, public services are cut or re-financed through printing money which has the nasty side effect of inflation and then eventually hyperinflation. Here's some examples: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Examples_of_hype...
Interestingly, Eurozone members like Greece can't hyperinflate their currency, since members share common currency, but can't simply print it on their own. The worst they can do is default, which would still have a nasty financial domino effect, but it does leave open the possibility of kicking Greece out of the Euro and taking the hit.
Re: Why Japan Is Doomed
#25Here, I'll turn on the Patio11 signal: 00000 0000000 000P11000 0000000 00000
I believe I invented that :)
Re: Why Japan Is Doomed
#26Will someone be able to exploit this for profit? I haven't enough macro-economy knowledge to evaluate this, but looks likely. Sadly, i haven't seen yet any article on future scenarios in case of a global crisis caused by multiple nations going to default... any interesting link about this will be highly appreciated.
Credit Default Swaps could be purchased on the relevant sovereign debt. Given the success that various hedge funds had with this strategy during the crash of mortgage backed CDOs a couple of years back I would have thought that there must be a lot of speculation of this kind going on. Assuming that there are still sellers of CDSs out there...
CDSs are being sold, but generally aren't available to small retail investors. An investor who is not accredited would need to hedge some other way.
Re: Why Japan Is Doomed
#27"Millions of Japanese aged 25 to 34 toil as temps or contract employees-- up from 1.5 million 10 years ago, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. These workers tend to earn about one-third the typical "salaryman" wages that their fathers earned" I lived in Tokyo last year in a cheap apartment with alot of young Japanese people, and I was very surprised by their lack of work ethic/prospect from my first time…
> and I was very surprised by their lack of work ethic/prospect from my first time in Japan Why would you be surprised by their "lack of work ethics"? They got fucked hard, so it's understandable that they aren't going to care much for "the man" anymore: they were told their contract was to work like mad in their studies, get to a good university and end up landing a good job in a multinational where they'd work thei…
Oh bullshit - I'm surprised you got as many upvotes given that this is supposed to be the entrepreneurial bunch (and our previous mega-thread involving Scott the useless college grad).
Boo hoo, so the economic sucks and you were lied to your whole life about how your employment situation was going to work. So? This does not excuse laziness and a crappy work ethic.
Perhaps their chronic unemployment stems from the fact that they meander through life rather than actively fighting for what they want. Japan isn't some third-world backwater, there are opportunities abound for people who are willing to work and fight for it - just like it still is in the US. The ones that sit and pout all day (like Scott, from the NYT article) are the ones who will never get out.
Re: Why Japan Is Doomed
#28The part I don't understand is why Japanese citizens would accept such low returns on their investment for so many years, when so many investments outside of Japanese government debt would give them higher yields. Is it a cultural thing? Is it just pure altruism? Do they want to support their government that much that they're willing to ignore better investments for their savings?
The older Japanese population are pretty nationalistic. However, the Japanese corporations, not so much.
Re: Why Japan Is Doomed
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
Credit Default Swaps could be purchased on the relevant sovereign debt. Given the success that various hedge funds had with this strategy during the crash of mortgage backed CDOs a couple of years back I would have thought that there must be a lot of speculation of this kind going on. Assuming that there are still sellers of CDSs out there...
And remember: timing is everything. Japan has been obviously f ked for a long, long time now, but hasn't paid much of a price for it in the bond market. Now that they are going to have to finance their debt externally, maybe reality will assert itself. But maybe not. Cheers, Carson
You're exactly right, many people have lost a lot of money trying to bet against the Japanese debt situation.
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." -Keynes
Re: Why Japan Is Doomed
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
> and I was very surprised by their lack of work ethic/prospect from my first time in Japan Why would you be surprised by their "lack of work ethics"? They got fucked hard, so it's understandable that they aren't going to care much for "the man" anymore: they were told their contract was to work like mad in their studies, get to a good university and end up landing a good job in a multinational where they'd work thei…
Oh bullshit - I'm surprised you got as many upvotes given that this is supposed to be the entrepreneurial bunch (and our previous mega-thread involving Scott the useless college grad). Boo hoo, so the economic sucks and you were lied to your whole life about how your employment situation was going to work. So? This does not excuse laziness and a crappy work ethic. Perhaps their chronic unemployment stems from the fac…
what is the expected outcome if someone fights hard for years and sees no success?
is it never justified for someone to fight hard, see they're not getting anywhere, and then drop their effort level down to match the situation they're in, permanently or temporarily?