You should read more carefully. 40% was the highest observed, 10% the lowest. Also, I said 'the majority', which is not like making it seem like it is only 10%. So it's not '10%' or '40%', for this particular workload, on average you're hovering somewhere between 25 and 30%, since you seem to prefer the higher number make that 30%. And if you read a bit more you would see that there are some factors that could pull that number down considerably in different situations and only one major one (large file serving, streaming) that would pull it up.
If I get around to it (I'm on a holiday right now) I'm going to instrument some more sites to measure their active-to-total ratios to see if there is some kind of number (or a set of them) that we might be able to agree on when it comes to real life web traffic. One of them is a filedump, which serves up large media files to clients, that's the use case that I can come up with in which your scheme might pay off, and in which it is possibly advantageous (even if it is a very small advantage) to use poll.
You keep 'challenging' people to come up with numbers. So, I did, from a real life webserver serving real customers, lots of them. If 60% is the cutoff point (and we're assuming that you are right about that) then 40% is comfortably under that, not 'much higher' than what I wrote in my previous comments, the majority (60 to 90%) of the fds is idle. So it's not in to 'equal performance levels' yet.
But as far as I'm concerned even that is probably moot. (But that needs more testing) because I suspect that even this fairly high traffic server spends only very small amount of time on polling the OS, and a much larger time on shovelling bits in and out of the system.
You keep using that word 'science' as though measuring anything at all is automatically science.
But what you're doing is more like selecting the data that fits your 'who needs epoll' and 'epoll is bad' hypothesis and rejecting out of hand any experience and / or experimental data that seems to prove you wrong.
That's not science. Science is to use all the data available to you, not just the juicy bits. Not just those bits that allow you to make bold claims about discoveries when in fact all you've done is to show that the underlying implementation of one systemcall is different and has different trade-offs than another, which may be specific to the way your system is set up.
I agree that to test something you need to reduce it to the minimum of code required to do your tests. But when you're going that route you are doing what so many other database, CPU and application benchmarkers forget. The real world is nothing like a benchmark.
You to suggest that this is 'not a localhost test' (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1573195) and you say so pretty loud. That would mean that there may be some validity to your data that I have not been able to find to date in the stuff you've provided.
I'm challenging you to provide the data that apparently is still missing that proves that this was not 'a localhost test'.
And if you don't supply that data then I think you should take back (and try to do it gracriously for a change) that this wasn't a local host test, or you're going to have to come with some definition of what you consider a localhost test to be.
For me, that definition is simple, a localhost test is a benchmark that never generates any network traffic.
Feel free to disagree.