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Trade school, not 4-year college, is a better bet to solve the US income gap

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Re: Trade school, not 4-year college, is a better bet to solve the US income gap

#81

Post by AstralStorm »

adventured wrote: post #35
thisisit wrote: post #23

> Researchers are investigating how the United States can become more competitive in the manufacturing industry in the age of artificial intelligence. > Manufacturing employment has fallen in both countries, yet in Germany, manufacturing's value added has stayed around 22 percent in the last 20 years. So Germany has done well even before the age of AI . But are they well prepared for the AI disruption? Because curren…

It's a bizarre premise, because US productivity has outpaced both the EU and Germany over the last 25 years. In 1995-1996, US and German GDP per capita were almost equal, at $30,000 to $31,000. Today the US is about 40% higher. US manufacturing has grown substantially over that time. The vast gains in productivity are precisely the cause of the employment plunge in manufacturing. Real manufacturing output is up 78% s…

Productivity is not the end all measure for the society. Suppose the Moser productive society would be made out of robots working 24/7 at high efficiency. Is that superior to a society where "inefficient" research happens?

Likewise GDP (even PPP) does not matter if it is distributed highly unequally. You get a handful of people with huge economic power, that's it.

Albeit in the case of Germany you're somewhat right (protectionism mostly designed to force manufacturing to happen locally), US productivity has not brought improved living standards where it should have.

Re: Trade school, not 4-year college, is a better bet to solve the US income gap

#82

Post by roseburg »

bsder wrote: post #70

Um, where are the statistics showing that wages in the trades are rising? Everything I have seen indicates that wages in the trades are stagnant which implies that they don't need any more people. Dumping a whole bunch of people into a system already at close to optimum employment will not benefit workers .

They are rising all across the country because there is a big shortage, and it's only going to get worse. Boomers are retiring faster than they are being replaced.

Optimum employment? When someone wants to get a project built in Portland Oregon the wait time this past year was about 3 months until you were lucky enough to land a contractor. Contractors can't find enough skilled help so everything takes longer.

Re: Trade school, not 4-year college, is a better bet to solve the US income gap

#83

Post by AstralStorm »

roseburg wrote: post #80
dogruck wrote: post #42

The real question is how can we reduce the cost of education (or training) while simultaneously better aligning training with the most valuable careers. Trade schools are much cheaper than college. In addition, we don’t have enough trained craftsmen.

There is a shortage of trades workers, and it's only going to get worse because the bulk of the workers are currently older and are retiring much, much faster than they are being replaced. We are just at the beginning of a crises level shortage. Labor prices will continue to rise and this will be absorbed by everyone.

In a supposed American model this means there should be more competition, right? And the companies will be happy to pay those increased wages to US workers?

(I'm being facetious devil advocate here.)

Re: Trade school, not 4-year college, is a better bet to solve the US income gap

#84

Post by watwut »

smallnamespace wrote: post #68
mediasavvy wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of self-made billionaires started out as millionaires? what percentage of poor people become self-made billionaires? What percentage of poor people who become self-made billionaires do so by going to trade school?

I think people argue past one another a lot about this because both facts can be simultaneously true: the US really is a land where a hard-working, smart, and motivated person (with a big pinch of luck) can work their way up from the top, and yet it's also a place where most people at the bottom aren't simultaneously hard-working, smart, motivated, and lucky. If they were, they would've moved up the rungs already. I…

Upward mobility is lower in US then in other western countries. The feudalism would have much lower mobility, but none of those countries have feudalism and did not had it for years.

Re: Trade school, not 4-year college, is a better bet to solve the US income gap

#85

Post by SapphireSun »

SapphireSun wrote: post #74
smallnamespace wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think people argue past one another a lot about this because both facts can be simultaneously true: the US really is a land where a hard-working, smart, and motivated person (with a big pinch of luck) can work their way up from the top, and yet it's also a place where most people at the bottom aren't simultaneously hard-working, smart, motivated, and lucky. If they were, they would've moved up the rungs already. I…

You've arrived at the unthinkable thought. Why indeed, in a very rich country, do any poor people at all exist? Why is this crime not remedied immediately? The only possible explanation in a democratic society, is that somehow the upper classes have rigged the system via political machinations, voter suppression, dividing the intermediate classes against each other, and propaganda. It's a sobering thought. We might a…

You're downvoting me, and that's natural. I assume the bulk of vocal HNers are ancap libertarians (possibly some of you aligning with the Dark Enlightenment). However, you should take what I said more seriously. It represents a point of view with which you've perhaps had little contact, but is held by a significant (possibly even growing) portion of the population. It is diametrically opposed to many of the precepts you've been taught.

For instance, that process legitimizes outcomes rather than the other way around. That one is a bit weird, because the SV _thing_ is to conduct A/B testing and achieve outcomes at all costs. However, you also in your heart of hearts believe that there are institutions, such as schools, governments, and corporations that, solely on their own merits, elevate some people legitimately above others. You might also believe that hierarchy, coercion, and domination are legitimate elements of society when expressed in particular forms such as corporate officers, investors, managers, take-it-or-leave-it contracts, privatization, and denial of aid.

Here's a quick primer: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2017/06/the-difference-betwee...

Re: Trade school, not 4-year college, is a better bet to solve the US income gap

#86

Post by roseburg »

I would simplify it and say that learning trade skills is a better investment for most people than attending a 4-year college. Trade skills can be learned at a young age, right from home, where there is room and time to explore and enjoy the learning process. Why we wait until after high school to teach kids in-demand skills boggles my mind. All the pressure in the world arrives after high school. It's time to start paying the bills and to grow up. It's no wonder most kids go off to college because they have zero marketable skills upon hs graduation and college is a way to get an extra 4 years to acquire some skills.

The sad part of that is all the kids that get caught up in the college wave. They get pressured to go to a 4 year school, take on a mountain of debt for a degree (if they are fortunate to graduate) they most likely won't use. So many students would be better off exploring the different trades and finding one that they really enjoy. There are hundreds of them.

I've been working on a project lately to help people explore and learn the trades online. Tradeskills.io It started as a side project for me a number of years ago teaching people how to get into the appliance repair trade. I've had over 600 students all across the country and Canada go through my training. The trades can be learned online and I think tech will need to play a big part in this area of education in the coming years.

Re: Trade school, not 4-year college, is a better bet to solve the US income gap

#87

Post by forapurpose »

loeg wrote: post #39
jstewartmobile wrote: post #31

With the constant ads for mutual funds with outrageous up-yours fees for just tracking the S&P 500, the endless shilling and apologetics for investment banks and hedge funds, the perpetual armchair quarterbacking of the market by overpaid newsreaders who really wouldn't even be working there if they even halfway understood what they were talking about... why does anyone watch or even pay the slightest attention to wh…

This is a tangential attack on the source, not the content. Please address the article, not the publisher.

I think the publisher is a very important issue for anything. If I read 'the CIA killed Kennedy', it makes a big difference if it's a random blogger or the NY Times. The same goes for reading that 'Linux is the most secure OS' - who is saying it?

Re: Trade school, not 4-year college, is a better bet to solve the US income gap

#88

Post by holydude »

Germany is the country that lost the battle but won the war. I am not saying Germany is not full of hard working and smart people but consider this.

Germany wreaked havoc on its neighbors effectively killing huge % of their populations,destroying trillions of $ worth of infrastructure and industries and much more. Yet they only paid dimes to these countries because someone smart people decided they must be the balancing force against the Soviets.

Also consider this. Germany is effectively dominating the markets of its neighbors solely because of weak euro, its industrial scale, "open" (anti-protectionist) laws and ...corruption. There are many many other factors of course.

Re: Trade school, not 4-year college, is a better bet to solve the US income gap

#89

Post by learc83 »

smallnamespace wrote: post #68
mediasavvy wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What percentage of self-made billionaires started out as millionaires? what percentage of poor people become self-made billionaires? What percentage of poor people who become self-made billionaires do so by going to trade school?

I think people argue past one another a lot about this because both facts can be simultaneously true: the US really is a land where a hard-working, smart, and motivated person (with a big pinch of luck) can work their way up from the top, and yet it's also a place where most people at the bottom aren't simultaneously hard-working, smart, motivated, and lucky. If they were, they would've moved up the rungs already. I…

Where do you get the idea that we admit a significant number of penniless legal immigrants?

Re: Trade school, not 4-year college, is a better bet to solve the US income gap

#90

Post by dagw »

flukus wrote: post #17
aphextron wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Remove the social stigma of not going to college. Hardly any tv shows that show young non college grads as positive. Or just make college useful and accessible. Give people the option of a European style undergrad where there is no liberal arts breadth, only technical courses. If we had accredited colleges doing 3 year bachelor degrees in STEM, the system would be much more efficient.

> Or just make college useful and accessible. Give people the option of a European style undergrad where there is no liberal arts breadth, only technical courses So just turn college into a trade school? All that would do is make trade schools more expensive.

I wouldn't call a "European style undergrad" a trade school. The only difference is that for example a math 'major' in Europe spends 90-95% of their time taking math courses, while in the US they might spend maybe 60-70% of their time on math courses. Thus you can get through the same 'relevant' course load in 3 years instead of 4.
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