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The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

economist.com

91–100 of 161 posts

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#91
post #73
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It definitely means people won't use it as a unit of account (for debts, budgets, etc), which is one primary use for a currency... But I don't think it means people won't spend it or trade it for some other currency or asset. If you held a bunch of bitcoin while the price in USD doubled, and you happened to want a new smartphone, you're sure you wouldn't buy one? If you were absolutely confident the price would quick…

I'd spend dollars on the phone, because the same BTC might buy 10 phones in a few weeks.

It's the same opportunity cost whether you spend from your BTC account or your USD account! You're choosing between "should I buy a phone or 0.1 bitcoin with these dollars?"

I think the presence in the market of an asset that many people believe is continually underpriced would have a general effect on spending, not just on the utility of that asset as a medium of exchange...

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#92
post #48

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot. Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's succ…

Proof of work is intrinsically dumb. To store wealth in Bitcoin you are committing to the constant burn of energy in perpetuity.

Are you saying our fiat systems of transfers and settlements use no energy?

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#93
post #79

The "blockchain" hype right now feels so much like "internet" hype in the late 1990's. Was that a bubble? Yes, but successful companies and technologies did emerge from it. People did make money too: those who started companies (even the companies that aren't around anymore), those who got lucky and invested in the few winners (like Yahoo), and those who invested broadly across the whole "internet" market.

I want to believe this argument so badly, but it's been 7 years and we still don't have a widely used application related to it. How much longer do we have to wait?

While we're on this topic, why are all Ethereum projects so damn meta? Like, the top dapps are all recursively related to Ethereum in some way (like wallets for ethereum, different ways of spending ethereum etc.) If a technology is new and exciting, shouldn't it be relevant outside of its own little meta-bubble? Like Amazon, for example. Buy stuff without going anywhere. It uses the internet but doesn't somehow recursively relate to it. Where's a similar dapp today?

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#94
post #26

I was having a conversation about bitcoin, and I was saying the fact that the price goes up so fast means people cant/wont actually use it as a currency. I think someone bought a pizza with 10k bitcoin? thats now 70 million $. Even in the last year it has moved up so fast, and if people think it will continue to grow 'because of adoption', people cant actually 'adopt' it and use it as a currency, because todays bitco…

I have used Bitcoin for purchases in the past. I try not to do it so often because of the exact thing you mentioned, but I feel like this is something that could improve with time.

If Bitcoin does get mass adoption and becomes THE worldwide currency then that also means that the volatility will decrease significantly to the point where I wouldn't have any problem transacting using Bitcoin.

I realize the idea of that actually happening is pretty insane and it is probably more likely that the value will go down to zero, but it is hard to predict the future.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#96
Could a psychological problem of Bitcoin actually be, that there are not enough of them, so that to own a single one is too expensive?

I know that you can buy fractions, but somehow it does not feel right to buy 0.2347 Bitcoin, and I actually heard people say that they are buying virtually any other Coin because it is cheaper. It is not rational, but nonetheless it is happening.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#97
post #92
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Proof of work is intrinsically dumb. To store wealth in Bitcoin you are committing to the constant burn of energy in perpetuity.

Are you saying our fiat systems of transfers and settlements use no energy?

It uses like seven orders of magnitude less per transaction.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#98
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that it has potential to change world for the worse, not the better. Fixed supply monetary systems have been tried in the history and there are reasons other than evil bankers wanting to get power for their dismissal. And claiming that bitcoin's success would be bankers loss indicates that you don't quite get what is the utility finance sector creates. One of the main things banks do is they convert sh…

Bitcoin may be a finite supply but cryptocurrencies in general are infinite. So can you really say it is a fixed monetary system?

Each one of the cryptocurrencies I have encountered relies on the idea that the supply is somehow predefined.

Give me a cryptocurrency whose supply is adjusted based on the needs of their users and I am interested. Give me a cryptocurrency that allows heavily negative interest rates for savings to embrace current consumption in the economy over hoarding of "money" and I am interested. But these are complete anathema for the current cryptocurrency folks.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#99
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying our fiat systems of transfers and settlements use no energy?

It uses like seven orders of magnitude less per transaction.

Citation? And remember a Bitcoin transaction is cash moving from my account to yours. Not just a promise of cash, after a few days of settlement, if no chargeback happens

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#100

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot. Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's succ…

My problem with bitcoin is that, fundamentally, it is born of mistrust of even the concept of “politics”. It considers, for example, the ability of established and democratically-controlled institutions such as central banks to conduct monetary policy as a net negative, and tries to replace it with the supposedly objective reality of an algorithm doing its thing without regards to the outside world. That’s why you will find, if you go down this rabbit hole, a large overlap of blockchain enthusiasts and the political spectrum somewhere between nihilism, Ayn-Rand-style social darwinism, and anarchism; All the handwringing over the supposed conspiracy that abolished the gold standard follows naturally.

This is even more obvious for the disaster that is the DAO: the idea that the nuances of human life and its conflicts currently settled by courts can adequately and unambiguously captured in code is, as has now been shown repeatedly, laughable. Personally, I also consider it somewhat frightening that people would actually subscribe to a philosophy so myopic as to completely deny the value of anything that isn't technology.

Technologically, bitcoin it is certainly fascinating. And a decentralised, electronic competitor to cash does seem more attractive than a future where VISA and PayPal control all that data. Unfortunately, bitcoin has completely failed in that regard. Adoption as an actual means of payment is declining. Even experts frequently lose money to hacks, hardware failures, or inattentiveness. Settlements take longer than many competing technologies, and the one area currently underserved, namely micropayment, is also priced out of bitcoin.

Bitcoin evangelist are also not doing the technology any favours. See, for example:

> Do people fear what they don't understand?

This implies that bitcoin critics are stupid. They're not.

> Are they mad because they feel like they missed out?

This implies that they are jealous. While that's obviously something that happens, I can assure you it is in no way a significant in the opposition. I do own a few dozen bitcoin, for example, because I used mining to get into cuda a few years back.

> Does Bitcoin's success mean their loss (like the banking folks and the government establishment)?

That implies some sort of conspiracy, and also portraits any critic as being a shill, or bot, or similar, whose opinion can then be considered illegitimate.

It's interesting to see how the bitcoin community was, from the start, driving by this antagonism versus government and the financial system. Bitcoin was considered as some sort of grand threat to the established order, and the government was expected to come down hart on it "any day now". In reality, however, regulatory bodies have almost without exception taken a rather relaxed approach. Questions of taxation were clarified, and existing rules such as KYC enforced to discourage the use of bc for illegal activity, yes. But overall, governments' reaction was nowhere near what the community expected, or what would be expected from a corrupt system trying to defend its power against a credible threat.

It is only with the rather obvious overheating, and widespread fraud, of ICOs that scrutiny of this market has somewhat increased.

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