The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory • Hacker News Board

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#11

Post by brndnmtthws » Thu, Nov 09, 2017, 2:33 PM UTC

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot.

Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's success mean their loss (like the banking folks and the government establishment)?

Did people hate the internet this much in its early days?

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#12

Post by megafounder » Thu, Nov 09, 2017, 2:33 PM UTC

When the majority is claiming 'there's a bubble' in a certain asset, then it's undervalued or not understood. When the majority claims 'there's no bubble', then usually it's a bubble.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#13

Post by golergka » Thu, Nov 09, 2017, 2:34 PM UTC

simias wrote: post #9

The article is perfectly right when it describe what drives the current Bitcoin craze and its insane valuation but the conclusion is frankly a bit lazy: >When the crash comes, and it cannot be too far away, it will be dramatic. People have been saying that Bitcoin was going to crash for years now. And it has, multiple times, but always recovered so far. Seems like there's no shortage of "fools" willing to pump the cu…

http://hedgenordic2.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploa...

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#14

Post by andrewmutz » Thu, Nov 09, 2017, 2:34 PM UTC

Both can be true:

- that bitcoin is an important tech that will eventually gain widespread adoption

- current high price of bitcoin is due to speculation and is a "bubble"

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#15

Post by nxsynonym » Thu, Nov 09, 2017, 2:35 PM UTC

simias wrote: post #9

The article is perfectly right when it describe what drives the current Bitcoin craze and its insane valuation but the conclusion is frankly a bit lazy: >When the crash comes, and it cannot be too far away, it will be dramatic. People have been saying that Bitcoin was going to crash for years now. And it has, multiple times, but always recovered so far. Seems like there's no shortage of "fools" willing to pump the cu…

Yeah I'm pretty disappointing in the quality of this article, especially considering its coming from the Economist.

The summary is a coin flip in essence.

It did, however, get me to think about this question: Is there a point where enough "fools" get involved that Bitcoin becomes "too big to fail"?

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#16

Post by frgtpsswrdlame » Thu, Nov 09, 2017, 2:36 PM UTC

brndnmtthws wrote: post #11

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot. Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's succ…

There's not that much vitriol here? Tons of people here own bitcoin and obviously believe in it and tons of people here are skeptical about it. I don't usually see anyone actually "mad" about bitcoin.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#17

Post by giancarlostoro » Thu, Nov 09, 2017, 2:36 PM UTC

brndnmtthws wrote: post #11

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot. Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's succ…

I was skeptical. Then I remembered I mined some BTC back in the day and have it sitting on coinbase now. Now I realize your mind changes a bit once you own an actual bitcoin or some amound of btc or satoshi. Then you kinda don't become as critical. It's amazing to think of all the things I can buy with BTC without risking the paypal issues of account lockout or other similar cases.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#18

Post by ufo » Thu, Nov 09, 2017, 2:36 PM UTC

brndnmtthws wrote: post #11

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot. Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's succ…

I dont think poopooing bitcoin's speculative bubble has to do with poopooing it as a technology.

For its original purpose as a digital currency, USD value should not matter (as long as it doesn't fluctuate too much)

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#19

Post by brndnmtthws » Thu, Nov 09, 2017, 2:37 PM UTC

frgtpsswrdlame wrote: post #16

brndnmtthws wrote: post #11

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot. Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's succ…

There's not that much vitriol here? Tons of people here own bitcoin and obviously believe in it and tons of people here are skeptical about it. I don't usually see anyone actually "mad" about bitcoin.

Try making a positive comment about Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency, and watch the downvotes come flying in.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#20

Post by theli0nheart » Thu, Nov 09, 2017, 2:38 PM UTC

brndnmtthws wrote: post #11

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot. Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's succ…

> Do people fear what they don't understand?

Yes.

> Are they mad because they feel like they missed out?

Eh, I doubt it.

> Does Bitcoin's success mean their loss (like the banking folks and the government establishment)?

I don't think so. It's not a zero sum game.

> Did people hate the internet this much in its early days?

Some parts of it, yes.

In the end, Bitcoin is still a wildly insane proposition and technology. It forces people to question longly held assumptions (on a millenium scale) of what money is. HNers are probably more likely to question, critique, and debate new things, and Bitcoin doesn't get a free pass simply because it's cool and exciting.