Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

71–80 of 161 posts

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#71

Post by nikcub »

theli0nheart wrote: post #20
brndnmtthws wrote: post #11

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot. Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's succ…

> Do people fear what they don't understand? Yes. > Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Eh, I doubt it. > Does Bitcoin's success mean their loss (like the banking folks and the government establishment)? I don't think so. It's not a zero sum game. > Did people hate the internet this much in its early days? Some parts of it, yes. In the end, Bitcoin is still a wildly insane proposition and technology.…

> > Are they mad because they feel like they missed out?

> Eh, I doubt it.

I think there is something to this. If you've been on HN for 5+ years and have followed the progress of Bitcoin, but never dived in - but then gone on to watch non-tech people make 10x+ returns while not understanding the currency - there must be something about that which grates some people.

I also think it's easy to dislike the "down with central banks", "fiat money is fake money" faction of bitcoin

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#72

Post by _zeo8 »

megafounder wrote: post #12

When the majority is claiming 'there's a bubble' in a certain asset, then it's undervalued or not understood. When the majority claims 'there's no bubble', then usually it's a bubble.

Reminds me of the Sequoia "RIP: Good Times" and all the "tech bubble warning" articles in 2008.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#73

Post by Nursie »

mbrock wrote: post #61
autokad wrote: post #26

I was having a conversation about bitcoin, and I was saying the fact that the price goes up so fast means people cant/wont actually use it as a currency. I think someone bought a pizza with 10k bitcoin? thats now 70 million $. Even in the last year it has moved up so fast, and if people think it will continue to grow 'because of adoption', people cant actually 'adopt' it and use it as a currency, because todays bitco…

It definitely means people won't use it as a unit of account (for debts, budgets, etc), which is one primary use for a currency... But I don't think it means people won't spend it or trade it for some other currency or asset. If you held a bunch of bitcoin while the price in USD doubled, and you happened to want a new smartphone, you're sure you wouldn't buy one? If you were absolutely confident the price would quick…

I'd spend dollars on the phone, because the same BTC might buy 10 phones in a few weeks.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#74

Post by marcosdumay »

brndnmtthws wrote: post #11

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot. Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's succ…

> Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world

I really doubt this. I have never seen a convincing argument about how BTC would solve any of its many technical issues, and the political ones are even larger.

I would gain a lot from Bitcoin's success. Really. Just by making it possible to do business without the gov being a bottleneck it would already change the lives of mostly everybody around here.

I just don't see it happening, for obvious and important reasons, that a bunch of people insist on ignoring. It's hard enough not to pass judgment on the people making an effort to ignore the obvious, now those same people trying to paint the others in a bad way is a bit too much.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#75

Post by mbrock »

quickben wrote: post #56
wickawic wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

question at this point though: If a crypto currency were to gain widespread adoption, why would it be Bitcoin?

Probably wouldn't. You need something that scales if all are to use it. Bitcoin, in the current form doesn't at a level to replace Visa tap pay. For example, for a country of 20 million buying bagels on their way to work.

By this standard, gold and USD also don't really scale, because you can't send them fast enough. Interbank clearing is pretty slow.

We already have exchanges and clearinghouses like Coinbase for example. It's easy to imagine a Bitcoin-backed payment infrastructure offered by Coinbase or a Visa-like consortium of exchanges.

Of course this taps into a huge and messy ideological debate about what kind of thing Bitcoin ought to be.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#76

Post by abrkn »

cletus wrote: post #60

So I've been giving this a lot of thought. I mean after I lick my wounds about not buying any Bitcoin at any point ever. But alas... I honestly don't see any cryptocurrency being used as a currency possibly ever but at least not until it stabilizes in value. You have to look no further than the real world to see what happens with unstable currencies. In countries like Venezuela for example a secondary economy forms a…

As someone who gets paid in Bitcoin and only has Bitcoin I can explain how it works.

I make purchases using Bitcoin or credit cards. I then sell enough Bitcoin to pay the credit card bills.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#77

Post by stevep98 »

beefield wrote: post #59
brndnmtthws wrote: post #11

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot. Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's succ…

The problem is that it has potential to change world for the worse, not the better. Fixed supply monetary systems have been tried in the history and there are reasons other than evil bankers wanting to get power for their dismissal. And claiming that bitcoin's success would be bankers loss indicates that you don't quite get what is the utility finance sector creates. One of the main things banks do is they convert sh…

I wonder whether scrutiny of those tax avoidance schemes revealed in the paradise papers or Panama papers will lead to those investors moving their funds to bitcoin.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#78

Post by hackinthebochs »

quickben wrote: post #56
wickawic wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

question at this point though: If a crypto currency were to gain widespread adoption, why would it be Bitcoin?

Probably wouldn't. You need something that scales if all are to use it. Bitcoin, in the current form doesn't at a level to replace Visa tap pay. For example, for a country of 20 million buying bagels on their way to work.

Segwit can enable that kind of scaling.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#79

Post by krupan »

The "blockchain" hype right now feels so much like "internet" hype in the late 1990's. Was that a bubble? Yes, but successful companies and technologies did emerge from it. People did make money too: those who started companies (even the companies that aren't around anymore), those who got lucky and invested in the few winners (like Yahoo), and those who invested broadly across the whole "internet" market.

Re: The Bitcoin bubble – Greater fool theory

#80

Post by omio »

beefield wrote: post #59
brndnmtthws wrote: post #11

Frankly I'm astounded by the vitriol toward Bitcoin on HN. Bitcoin has the potential to actually change the world (unlike most of the BS startups coming out of SV), and yet all these voices on HN poo-pooing Bitcoin appear (to me at least) to outweigh those who are willing to give it a shot. Why is this? Do people fear what they don't understand? Are they mad because they feel like they missed out? Does Bitcoin's succ…

The problem is that it has potential to change world for the worse, not the better. Fixed supply monetary systems have been tried in the history and there are reasons other than evil bankers wanting to get power for their dismissal. And claiming that bitcoin's success would be bankers loss indicates that you don't quite get what is the utility finance sector creates. One of the main things banks do is they convert sh…

Bitcoin may be a finite supply but cryptocurrencies in general are infinite. So can you really say it is a fixed monetary system?
Post reply on HN