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Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

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Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#381

Post by sumeno »

falcolas wrote: post #271
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

With the following caveat, I'll bite: "Not available in adverse weather conditions or outside service zones". Said service zones wouldn't include anyplace where increased crime is a concern. The cars would also probably have to be inspected and possibly cleaned between each use... I'm also uncertain the tech is advancing quickly enough to justify a 5 year timeline. Not to mention ensuring society and the government i…

> Said service zones wouldn't include anyplace where increased crime is a concern.

What? Is someone going to try to steal a car without a steering wheel?

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#382

Post by shostack »

edshiro wrote: post #68

If Waymo's tech is years ahead of the competition (say 18-24 months ahead minimum) then I think a lot of the self-driving companies and car manufacturers in the US will be having cold sweats. This may not be a winner-take-all market (I don't know honestly...) but I see this lead up enabling Waymo to capture significant market share in the US in regions where laws towards autonomous vehicles are friendly. One way the…

What I'm dying to see with the OEMs is how it will impact their advertising and design. They used to design for individuals and advertise for brand affinity. Will they still make that distinction with self-driving cars? Will they have a luxury line, a mid-end line and an economy line?

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#383

Post by itissid »

landryraccoon wrote: post #332
aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

> Car usage will go up by an order of magnitude because a major cost of driving isn't the dollars, but the time. This is why I think self driving cars will make traffic worse, not better. The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides, the more people will drive (self driving or otherwise). If road infrastructure is the same, that necessarily means a much higher density of cars…

The economics of self driving cars make any such assumptions sort of up in the air.

Maybe self driving car fleets will be so numerous, they will optimize via carpooling in busy urban pockets. Maybe people will stop driving there own self driving car to work and use these. Maybe people will own/ride in really small self driving car that network to optimize and self park.

> The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides.

This may not be generally correct. People also like to commute quite a bit by rail in certain areas. Living on the east coast I can tell you this because of #of people using NJ Transit and Amtrak is big. Cars take much longer to get to NYC already. Commuting to city via subway trains is so that there is shortage of housing right in manhattan where no one goes by cars.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#385

Post by JumpCrisscross »

rrhd wrote: post #359
nroets wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Self driving (and taxis) cars can reduce traffic, because commuters can combine them with mass transit (e.g. trains). If a commuter travels more than 2 legs in a day, it's very likely that mass transit will not cover one of the legs and he will take his car.

why would people do that when they don't already carpool or take a bus?

If I could press a button and have a car pick me up, take me to the train station, get on a train, and have a car waiting on the other side I'd choose that over the present litany of call a car, hope it arrives in time, get on the train, arrive at the station, wait around for a car. Many times I'm just too tired (or lazy) to do that, and call a car for the whole journey instead.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#386

Post by rorykoehler »

aidenn0 wrote: post #232
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

By then SpaceX will fly you there in 30 mins plus the trip to the spaceport.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#387

Post by rorykoehler »

andrewtbham wrote: post #285
sangnoir wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's an edge case: If an operator redesigns the interior of their fleet with large, comfortable reclining seats, long distance travel by road will become much more competitive with business-/first-class air travel. Boarding at my house and being dropped off at my destination and sleeping all the way (or working if you're a telecommuter, or watching movies) is quite appealing to me - the lack of TSA and/…

Yeh things will change... you sorta already see stuff like this in Asia where drivers are common... people have vans with offices in the back and work while their driver takes them to places.

I've never seen that.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#388

Post by rorykoehler »

falcolas wrote: post #271
LrnByTeach wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

With the following caveat, I'll bite: "Not available in adverse weather conditions or outside service zones". Said service zones wouldn't include anyplace where increased crime is a concern. The cars would also probably have to be inspected and possibly cleaned between each use... I'm also uncertain the tech is advancing quickly enough to justify a 5 year timeline. Not to mention ensuring society and the government i…

Inspections can be automated with computer vision and gas sensors

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#389

Post by Consultant32452 »

LrnByTeach wrote: post #214
a9a wrote: post #148

It will be interesting to see how Lyft's partnership with Waymo evolves given this tech announcement and Waymo's acknowledgment that they plan to offer their own ridesharing service. Lyft's approach to self-driving partnerships in general seems to rest on the assumption that self-driving providers will catch up to each other before any of them can fully handle everything a human driver can do. If this assumption is c…

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

I intend to be an early adopter of these subscriptions, but there's a key item they don't overcome: kids. When you have kids you don't just have to bring them everywhere, you have to bring lots of equipment everywhere. Baseball, hockey, football, etc. has lots of equipment that people are accustomed to leaving in the back of their vehicles. Same goes with strollers and diaper bag for babies. I don't know how we'll overcome that, most families will presumably still need to own at least one car. However, many two-car families should be able to downgrade (upgrade?) to one car and a subscription.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#390

Post by TallGuyShort »

LrnByTeach wrote: post #214
a9a wrote: post #148

It will be interesting to see how Lyft's partnership with Waymo evolves given this tech announcement and Waymo's acknowledgment that they plan to offer their own ridesharing service. Lyft's approach to self-driving partnerships in general seems to rest on the assumption that self-driving providers will catch up to each other before any of them can fully handle everything a human driver can do. If this assumption is c…

Here is the most probable scenarios I foresee. If you are a pessimist about autonomous being bigger part of transpiration then add 2 years to DATES shown below. 2021 : Electric Self-driving on-demand FLEET Car 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION from Google, DiDi, Uber, Renault/Nissan,Tesla, VW,Toyota,GM for $400/month 2024 :same 1000 miles/month SUBSCRIPTION $200/month At $200/month Subscription price for 1000 miles/month…

If a significant percentage of the population shift to a subscription service where they summon cars on-demand, the benefits to smoothing out everyone's commute schedule will grow dramatically. Ride-sharing will help, but assuming population keeps out-pacing growth of infrastructure in already-congested area, removing individual car ownership and switching to a shared pool will increase avoidance of peak hours. I really see a future in which having most people work 8-5 will become incredibly inefficient, and more work will be done on flexible / rotating schedules (or more remotely).

Which means the little benefit of daylight savings that is there will disappear, which would be awesome. Long-live the driverless car subscription model.

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