Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

finance.yahoo.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

211–220 of 318 posts

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#211

Post by prostoalex »

selectodude wrote: post #68
colordrops wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would failure look like? Worst case outcome to me seems that they would just take longer to get to their goals rather than not achieve them at all. They have enough money in the bank and no unsolved technical issues - it's not black hole physics. I mean they've delivered cars already. They just are slower than expected at scaling up.

Their burn rate is incredible. If they run out of money and nobody is there to give them more, they file for bankruptcy.

The burn rate numbers need more scrutiny as they include recurring expenses (salaries and materials) as well as one-time investments into Gigafactory and automated production lines for Model 3.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#212

Post by prostoalex »

jeffdavis wrote: post #35

What is the main practical selling point of a model 3 over, say, a leaf? Longer range and that's it? Good thing tesla has a lot of vertical investment in batteries. The market is very competitive.

Autopilot and supercharger network.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#213

Post by Animats »

Someone wrote: post #32
chollida1 wrote: post #3

Since this came out as part of the Tesla earnings, here's my recap from their earnings release and call.... - Tesla will be late getting up to 5,000 units a week of Model 3. It will happen at the end of Q1 instead of the end of this year. The bottleneck is batteries. - Some lines are at only 500 cars a week. Namely the battery pack assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly. - The $2.92 a share loss was m…

”Some lines are at only 500 cars a week.” That sounds better than what Tesla claims. http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/549293785... (emphasis added): ”Other lines, such as battery pack assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly, have demonstrated burst builds of about 500 units per week and are ramping up quickly.” If you can do burst runs of 15 km/hour, that doesn’t mean you can run a th…

Most auto production lines produce nearly 500 cars per shift. Normal cycle times in an auto plant are about one minute. Here's a Mercedes production line.[1] That's a vehicle on a par with Tesla's products.

Something is terribly wrong in Fremont.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbfTlwm248k

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#214

Post by csours »

prostoalex wrote: post #209
csours wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The production line is the ultimate in multiple single points of failure, and Tesla has exacerbated this by using advanced automation. [0] Advanced automation promises great benefits, including reduced headcount and more repeatable (and thus higher quality) processes. Advanced automation has some pretty serious drawbacks as well. In addition to the HUGE cost to set it up in the first place: * Every station has to run…

To be fair, they did manage to pump out S and X models for years, it’s not like this is their first attempt at advanced automation.

To my understanding it is more integral to the Model 3 production process, but I don't have any solid source for that.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#215

Post by ClassyJacket »

sushisource wrote: post #60
hwillis wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is the main practical selling point of a model 3 over, say, a leaf? Much better value, larger size, better fuel economy, more conventional, more power, more range, and superchargers. Cost per mile of range: $200 for the 2018 leaf, 132 for the Model 3. 147 hp vs 258 hp, 10" of extra length and 6" of extra width, over twice the range at less than half the capacity. The Tesla is way superior to any other electric…

How about compared to the Bolt, though? The Bolt seems dramatically more competitive than the Leaf. 200hp, comparable range, and cheaper than the model 3. I think people getting fed up with the wait and switching to Bolts en-masse is a possible scenario. Imagine if Chevy made an ad targeting exactly that scenario.... (You can thank me later Chevy ad execs)

For me, it's that even waiting for a Model 3 is going to be quicker than waiting for the Bolt to come out in Australia.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#216

Post by _pmf_ »

chollida1 wrote: post #3

Since this came out as part of the Tesla earnings, here's my recap from their earnings release and call.... - Tesla will be late getting up to 5,000 units a week of Model 3. It will happen at the end of Q1 instead of the end of this year. The bottleneck is batteries. - Some lines are at only 500 cars a week. Namely the battery pack assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly. - The $2.92 a share loss was m…

> "the lower deployments are in large part a result of deliberately de-emphasizing commercial and industrial solar energy projects with low profit and limited cash generation."

Euphemism for government funding running out.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#217

Post by prostoalex »

rootusrootus wrote: post #78
drewg123 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I test drove one. It was fairly ok, but the seats were uncomfortable. The big objective thing that the Bolt is missing is a fast charging network. For now, nothing can touch Tesla's supercharger network in terms of charging speed and locations.

I wonder how valuable that charging network will end up being long-term. With the Bolt delivering 238 miles of range, and that number likely to go up some more in the next few years, it seems like a fairly small niche of people that actually benefit from superchargers. Especially as the number of end-point chargers increases. Which isn't to say that it won't be a valuable marketing tool, however -- range anxiety is d…

For one, Tesla superchargers in NorCal and SoCal are insanely busy, with lines and valets during busy hours, so the usage is definitely there. Head over to TeslaMotorsClub forums or Facebook group for owners to witness the mini-dramas playing out regarding hogged supercharger spots.

For two, if someone is considering buying a new car, and their daily commute is 3 miles each way, but once a year they take a 200-mile road trip (relatives, beach, mountain vacation), the lack of fast and convenient charging options severely lowers the chance they will consider that 238-mile-range vehicle.

Both the number and reliability of public chargers needs to increase drastically - there’s a couple of free Volta chargers by the grocery store I frequent, 70% of the time they’re taken and 20% they’re inoperative. Just a slight bummer for me, as I can charge at home, but a huge bummer for someone who is on a road trip down to their last 20 miles, and was planning to do a major recharge there.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#218

Post by prostoalex »

cjhopman wrote: post #170
hwillis wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"reallocating resources" is not the same as "unable to sell cars". Tesla is still selling every car they make with zero problems.

Companies don't usually drop prices when they have zero problems selling.

Tesla has been meticulous about leading on $ / mile of range metric, i.e. https://i.redd.it/grefifdkjmcz.png

The price drops are usually correlated with a competitor offering a comparable deal.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#220

Post by Fizzer »

Animats wrote: post #213
Someone wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

”Some lines are at only 500 cars a week.” That sounds better than what Tesla claims. http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/549293785... (emphasis added): ”Other lines, such as battery pack assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly, have demonstrated burst builds of about 500 units per week and are ramping up quickly.” If you can do burst runs of 15 km/hour, that doesn’t mean you can run a th…

Most auto production lines produce nearly 500 cars per shift . Normal cycle times in an auto plant are about one minute. Here's a Mercedes production line.[1] That's a vehicle on a par with Tesla's products. Something is terribly wrong in Fremont. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbfTlwm248k

Most auto production lines don't need EV-size batteries. The post above specifically says batteries are the bottleneck, so it isn't really evidence that something is "terribly wrong"
Post reply on HN