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Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

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Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#71

Post by dogruck »

colordrops wrote: post #61
dogruck wrote: post #4

As an engineer who has zero investment in Tesla, I truly hope they overcome this setback. Simultaneously, I know from experience that failure is a real possibility. At this point, it’s nice to have the additional transparancy into the current production bottleneck.

What would failure look like? Worst case outcome to me seems that they would just take longer to get to their goals rather than not achieve them at all. They have enough money in the bank and no unsolved technical issues - it's not black hole physics. I mean they've delivered cars already. They just are slower than expected at scaling up.

Failure looks like bankruptcy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_State...

If you don’t think it’s possible, then I suggest putting all of your available assets into their equity.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#72

Post by rtpg »

gcheong wrote: post #57
ericabiz wrote: post #28

SeekingAlpha predicted this a few weeks ago: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4114125-will-tesla-zero-mon... "Leading up to the end of September, we saw new-high Model 3 VIN numbers in the wild almost every other day, culminating in number 521. But since the beginning of October, nothing. I can’t find a single one above 521 with VIN picture evidence on any forum. It’s unlikely to end up this way, but the sole evidenc…

What does it mean to "outsell" something when that something is backordered into the foreseable future? Personally I will wait until Tesla goes bankrupt before I buy a bolt but I'm still betting that, despite Tesla's lack of ability to predict their own production capability timeline (uh hello, pretty much every tech company that ever existed), that I won't have to.

Preorders don't become actual sales until you ship the product. If Tesla can't ship cars fast enough they're going to have serious cash flow problems.

The pre-orders mean they could get some line of credit to help, but that will also cut into margins

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#73

Post by dzdt »

btian wrote: post #18
williamscales wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"key elements" of the battery module assembly had to be taken over and redesigned, Musk says. Tesla seems to be taking the opposite approach to Apple here. In my observation, Apple drives its suppliers extremely hard to achieve the quality it requires. Tesla, on the other hand, is too eager to bring any sundry part in house (e.g. car seats). Apple's approach appears to work in that it pushes suppliers to do what's ne…

Then how do you explain Apple making their own SoC?

It is a part of their core product differentiation. They can get better performance and longer battery life by owning the hardware design and OS design and being good at it.

Apple in particular understood lomg before competitors that battery life is an extremely important real world metric. Doing their own SOC helps them optimise that.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#74

Post by saas_co_de »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #14
chollida1 wrote: post #3

Since this came out as part of the Tesla earnings, here's my recap from their earnings release and call.... - Tesla will be late getting up to 5,000 units a week of Model 3. It will happen at the end of Q1 instead of the end of this year. The bottleneck is batteries. - Some lines are at only 500 cars a week. Namely the battery pack assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly. - The $2.92 a share loss was m…

The most worrying is the slowing production of models S and X, coupled with what I'd call a collapse in the gross margins of those products. Why is the margin declining so drastically?

They definitely seem to have hit a plateau in terms of demand which was declining before they started to slash prices in order to move inventory.

The S/X and are old now and the car market requires new models to keep sales going.

That combined with the approaching launches of other high end luxury electric cars does not bode well for future S/X sales.

The negative press on autopilot and failure to deliver on autopilot 2.0 could certainly be a factor as well.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#75

Post by [deleted] »

ericabiz wrote: post #28

SeekingAlpha predicted this a few weeks ago: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4114125-will-tesla-zero-mon... "Leading up to the end of September, we saw new-high Model 3 VIN numbers in the wild almost every other day, culminating in number 521. But since the beginning of October, nothing. I can’t find a single one above 521 with VIN picture evidence on any forum. It’s unlikely to end up this way, but the sole evidenc…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#76

Post by planteen »

hkmurakami wrote: post #70
gcheong wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does it mean to "outsell" something when that something is backordered into the foreseable future? Personally I will wait until Tesla goes bankrupt before I buy a bolt but I'm still betting that, despite Tesla's lack of ability to predict their own production capability timeline (uh hello, pretty much every tech company that ever existed), that I won't have to.

Actual deliveries and full payment.

Exactly, GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) which publicly traded US companies must play by...

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#77

Post by alexeldeib »

williamscales wrote: post #59
rando444 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could substitute Apple with Wal-Mart in your comment and every bit would be just as true. Sometimes forcing your supply chain to pinch every penny works out the best for your shareholders.. sometimes focusing on quality products pays off more in the long run. Time will tell.

Hmm, I think I do agree with you that it would be true, but in my estimation it does shift the meaning. I was thinking of how Apple is known to specify extremely rigorous quality standards on cutting edge technology and really push its suppliers to advance their craft. Whereas Walmart I would associate more with outright penny-pinching. I'm thinking about the different ways to structure a business to achieve a qualit…

First companies that come to mind as plausibly fulfilling this would be Samsung/LG types. Not sure of an example of a company on a smaller scale.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#78

Post by rootusrootus »

drewg123 wrote: post #55
maxerickson wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does the Bolt compare to what you expect to get from Tesla?

I test drove one. It was fairly ok, but the seats were uncomfortable. The big objective thing that the Bolt is missing is a fast charging network. For now, nothing can touch Tesla's supercharger network in terms of charging speed and locations.

I wonder how valuable that charging network will end up being long-term. With the Bolt delivering 238 miles of range, and that number likely to go up some more in the next few years, it seems like a fairly small niche of people that actually benefit from superchargers. Especially as the number of end-point chargers increases.

Which isn't to say that it won't be a valuable marketing tool, however -- range anxiety is definitely going to be a thing for a while.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#79

Post by makomk »

chollida1 wrote: post #25
RayVR wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bottleneck is absolutely not batteries. From the document, they specifically state that they have multiple steps which are only able to operate for short periods at 500 cars per week, which basically means 500 cars could be produced if you take how things went for two hours and assume that rate can be maintained for a week.

Ummm > Some lines are at only 500 cars a week. Namely the battery pack assembly, body shop welding and final vehicle assembly. of those, the battery pack is the big issue. From Gabrielle Coppola, bloomberg's auto analysts: > The biggest production constraint by far is the battery module assembly. A systems integration contractor dropped the ball, and Tesla only realized they dropped the ball until very recently. Tesl…

So basically, the whole thing about Tesla being more a battery company than a car company that was supposed to help justify their valuation was bullshit. They don't even have the in-house capabilities to tell that the company that they contracted the work out to had screwed up until well after they were supposed to be shipping.

Re: Tesla posts big loss, cuts production of Models X and S to catch up on Model 3

#80

Post by rootusrootus »

perseusprime11 wrote: post #21

I feel like I should cancel my reservation of Tesla Model 3. Something tells me that subscription-based autonomous cars will be here before my Model 3 and will render purchasing cars useless. Anybody in a similar boat?

While I agree that the Tesla 3 backorder delay is pretty long, I think you may be underestimating the time it will take before we see any subscription-based autonomous cars by perhaps a factor of 5.
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