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Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

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Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#661
post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or perhaps actually trying to fix the root issue rather than scrambling for the "F you, I got mine" route and buying property you don't need now on the speculation that its value will increase over the next decades. Companies should be incentivized (by us, software developers) to hire remote workers for jobs that don't need to be physically in an office.

Please lay out your plan in more detail. I just want to see the logic of this. You think I can put downward pressure on property prices by insisting on a remote job? I don't think hiring companies take joy in making your life difficult. They would hire more remote workers if they felt it could work. I prefer working remotely but find it much harder to manage.

It's super easy. You just tell them my rate to work remote is X. My rate to work on site is 1.75X.

Been remote for 10+ years. Make bay area salary and live in a huge house on the beach.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#662
post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

:( Facebook recently opened a datacenter in Fort Worth. [0] I heard something like 100k people are moving into the DFW metroplex a month? I haven't verified that but the real estate market is definitely crushing right now. It's only a matter of time. [0] https://code.facebook.com/posts/1014459531921764/facebook-in...

The typical data center has fewer than about 50 people on-site.

All I'm saying is that big silicon companies have their eyes on this place. There are a lot of corporate offices out here.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#663
post #543
post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Americans think government is evil and all that. So there's no government rescue plan to build more housing because that's commie talk. So everyone's waiting for the market to fix it.

The market would absolutely produce more housing in a lot of places were there not a ton of regulations in place to stop it from doing so. And I don't write that as a fingers-in-ears, market-will-solve-all-problems libertarian, but as a fairly left-wing guy.

There has to be an incentive for real estate developers.

There's a project at my former company that will redevelop a part of downtown SF. There was a massive back and forth and iterations that had to be done because the numbers guy at the real estate development company wanted to cut out all residential since commercial would be more profitable.

Those are the people you have to incentivize to make it work.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#664
post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what exactly is wrong with NIMBY-ism? Not everyone likes living in dense cities. I don't see anything wrong with groups of people who prefer to live in less dense development working together to create less dense places to live. The problem is that there are (as I said) more people who prefer to live in less dense development than there is space to accommodate them all. At that point, the market takes over and de…

Was talking about East Hollywood, at the center of a 10 million plus megalopolis. If nimbys want to live in the sticks, by all means.

That's kind of funny. East Hollywood is already pretty dense (not height-wise though) compared to surrounding areas. I can see from a parking standing point what the complaint would be but...I don't know, any new building in E Hollywood is an improvement.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#665

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can't explain shortages. If the price of one thing increases relative to the price of everything else (including the price of labor, i.e., how much you get paid) that cannot directly be explained by a money supply change. A shortage being caused by something else is a much simpler explanation.

True, shortages can be caused by a number of circumstances, including housing supply vs. demand. That said, approximately 2 Trillion of the 3 Trillion increase in the Fed's balance sheet over the last decade went to purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). This had multiple effects, including: 1) boosting real estate prices by putting the Fed's fresh capital in competition with wage earners for real estate, and…

A shortage is supply vs. demand by definition.

Shouldn't real estate developers be able to make even more money on top of this by increasing the housing supply? Wouldn't the "banks" have cheap loans for real estate developers? This can't explain a shortage.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#666

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly my point -- if we were really overpopulated, then those desires would have stepped aside for the dire need of housing.

Concerns about global overpopulation are not usually about housing, but how much of the total energy in the system can be safely diverted to our uses. I think it is reasonable to be concerned when one species controls a large fraction of the energy in an ecosystem.

On average, moving one person from a small town in the midwest to SF reduces resource consumption, so from that point of view construction in SF should be encouraged. Tearing down abandoned houses in small midwestern towns and converting them to wildland should also be encouraged.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#667
post #566
post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But a lot of people would not consider that a good outcome. If they didn't consider that a good outcome, they would stop paying money to move there, or move out, and cause housing prices to drop, thus solving the problem.

personal incentives don't "solve" social problems. People compete themselves into subsistence -- not motivated to improve a situation until it's too miserable to bear, and then back off just to the edge. This is the "tragedy of the commons" coordinate problem

Except what the SF Bay Area is facing isn't the Tragedy of the Commons--it's the Tragedy of the Anticommons, where the owners of resources underutilize them.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#668
post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People move here because they like yards and redwood trees and vineyards and hiking trail no, they want jobs. you can get outdoors anywhere in the US, but only a few places in the US actually have a super vibrant economy. and NOTHING precludes turning SF into a stack of 120-story high-density towers apartments for all family types and leaving the redwoods and grassy fields alone. nothing but the unwillingness to go…

Going to be fun getting around those 120 story towers given the rest of San Francisco’s infrastructure including mass transit. There’s always the cable car I guess. But it shouldn’t take more than a few decades to expand that further as well.

> rest of San Francisco’s infrastructure including mass transit

The moment Proposition 13 gets repealed that will no longer be a problem.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#669

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was talking about East Hollywood, at the center of a 10 million plus megalopolis. If nimbys want to live in the sticks, by all means.

That's kind of funny. East Hollywood is already pretty dense (not height-wise though) compared to surrounding areas. I can see from a parking standing point what the complaint would be but...I don't know, any new building in E Hollywood is an improvement.

Indeed, some folks prefer to live in a third world shit hole with skyrocketing rents.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#670

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The runup in real estate prices is fundamentally driven by the huge amounts of money printing by the Fed earlier this decade. The Bay Area has just been the canary in the coal mine on this because the strong job growth and self-injurious housing policies caused the price pressures to show up earlier than elsewhere, but it will become an undeniably nationwide phenomenon soon enough. High real estate prices & rents are…

I'm not necessarily pro-big banks, but JP Morgan and GS were two of the banks LEAST in need of a bailout. GS was short MBS at the time, so your description is .

Those MBS shorts that Goldman Sachs held were with counterparties who couldn't have paid up had they not been bailed out. The same goes for JPM and their monstrous derivatives book, which would have lost enough value to make them insolvent many times over in the absence of a bailout.

The idea that these banks were perfectly healthy is a lie propagated by bailout apologists.

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