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Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

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241–250 of 694 posts

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#241
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The flip side to that is without prop 13, families like this would quickly find they can no longer afford to pay the taxes on their house and are forced to leave. Which is also not a great situation.

"Forced to leave" is a bit strong, evoking images of someone thrust into debtors prison. What would actually happen is they'd sell their house for 5x the price of the same house in a more reasonable housing market, and 10x what they paid for it, and move to a different location with a nicely multiplied bank account. I'll acknowledge that some stability is good. But it has a cost, and that cost is currently much highe…

But what if they don't want to leave? Many of these people have lived here their whole lives. If they must leave due to the market, I'd argue that's being forced out. Even if they do make a tidy profit.

Anecdotal, but I've heard this is happening in Hawaii now with vacation home prices skyrocketing, causing natives to get stuck with property taxes they can no longer afford.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#242
post #78

It seems ironic that the land of self-aggrandizing free market disruption (Uber, AirBnb) seems so against the obvious free-market solution to their problems: increase supply. You have too little of something, and it's causing prices to skyrocket because demand is increasing. So make more of it, reducing the price. I just got back from a visit to the Bay Area. Outside of SF itself, not a single building over 4 stories…

> All that air space that could be condos, homes for people, anything at all, wasted so that "people can see the mountains better". Meanwhile, my friend and his girlfriend are paying $4000/month for 1000 sqft.

My guess is that, if significant amounts of extra housing were added in the Bay Area, software devs salaries would fall. Right now, software companies need to pay insane money in order to offset the insane cost of living (as otherwise, they'd lost their workforce). So, filling BA with high-risers would not help members of this forum that much (it would likely be very helpful for people in low-wage jobs though).

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#243
post #127
post #69

I'm surprised no one has mentioned http://www.sfyimby.org/ They're the go-to people if you want to be involved in fixing things.

FYI, California state legislature has passed a number of housing laws this year intended to accelerate housing development and affordable housing. I am hoping this really makes a dent. On the other hand, I don't think real estate would ever be cheap in coastal California as the demand for such real estate extends far beyond the US.

They were involved in some of that legislation.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also hyperbole. It's closer to ~5K per month for a $1M mortgage with insurance and taxes in the bay today. By the rule of thirds, that's $60K/yr meaning $180K+/yr salary is necessary. This is for suburban living in a remodeled 70's ranch home, not in an urban area.

But a $180k gross income is not particularly unusual in the Bay. I mean, that's still in junior engineer territory at one of the BigCos (Apple, Google, Facebook, etc.).

For a techie who's in the top 10% of earners, sure, but we're talking about averages. $180k gross is ridiculous for the average job, even in the bay.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#245
post #14

Montana, a land of National parks, natural beauty, fast internet, and a low cost of living has a number of high tech jobs open. Full disclosure, I own an internet company here and want more tech savvy people in the area ;) Social Finanace (SoFi) | Helena, MT Oracle | Bozeman, MT OnXMaps | Missoula, MT Zaneray Group | Whitefish, MT Submittable | Missoula, MT Applied Materials | Kalispell, MT

Counterpoint: it is a very conservative state, and one of their elected representatives choke-slammed a Guardian journalist who was trying to ask him questions, and he still got elected.

This should be considered for sure. Texas anything was removed from my family's potential places list because of its hostility to women; my wife said in no uncertain terms that we would never be moving there.

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#246
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you explain that bit more? How is that at the expense of everyone else, did they achieve their wealth illegally?

Breaking the law is for chumps and poor people. Rich people change the law to favor them.

Damn dude. That's very good insight!

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#247
post #59
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A fourth category: people who have lived here for a long time, and were able to buy property back before it became unaffordable. These are typically the managers or senior employees. It makes me wonder that as the young rockstars and H1B recipients age, where will they go? They certainly can't afford to buy a house. I imagine as time goes on, companies in the Bay Area will be awash with young junior talent but will s…

> where will they go Other tech hubs. Portland, Seattle - even little Bend has plenty of people from California who are attracted by the (for them) low housing prices. They, in turn, put pressure on housing prices for 'ordinary' people here. California's housing crisis has repercussions all up and down the west coast.

D/FW, Austin

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#248
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's hardly insane for a house in a large metropolitan area! That's actually pretty reasonable, and lots of apartments in SF are 50% to 100% more in rent. If you look at current, or anything within maybe 5 years, house prices in Seattle I doubt you'll find much if anything within a 15 minute commute to downtown Seattle for a 900/month mortgage.

Absolutely insane. Going to buy a house with a 15 minute commute by train downtown. I’m looking to spend less than ~350k for a house with around 1500sq feet and fenced in yard. I will be spending less than $2k total a month. West coast is crazy.

Where are you buying?

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm fairly early in my career at a company ( 80-10-10 mortgage on a 1mil home is only 100k down. And the monthly payments split by 2 people (aka a couple) is ~2k / person / month. That's 4k/month all in once you include the tax rebates.

Jesus, 2k / person a month is insane. This is what people are talking about. This is not acceptable or normal. I pay $900 / person a month for a large house in Seattle that's a 15 minute commute from downtown. Even with the bay's high salaries you're not doing very well. Throw in bills and other expenses and you're looking at ~40% of your monthly income, assuming a salary of 130k. That's ~50k per person, per year, in…

It is not that insane. IMO it is not sustainable (which is why I think I would not buy into SF real estate even if I worked there), but SF salaries are often significantly higher than elsewhere, so renting is a perfectly viable option.

Assuming 40% tax bracket, a 30k salary difference gives you 1500/month extra after taxes that you can spend on your apartment. If you consider a couple with in demand tech skills they may be significantly better off financially moving to SF, where they are likely to both find very competitive salaries. In many other areas they may have to contend with one person getting into his best career path and the other choosing from limited options to be nearby.

I am not advocating SF living, e.g. this is not my kettle of fish simply due to the quality of life choices, but from a purely financial viewpoint it is not that hopeless (yet?).

Re: Bay Area hammered by loss of jobs: Lack of affordable housing strangles hiring

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I wish more would come to Phoenix and drive up our real estate prices more. I left California right before the last housing bubble burst to take advantage of the real estate arbitrage. I'd love to do it again.

There are no hard rules, but very few of my non-white friends are OK with Phoenix or most other red states. AZ especially given the papers-please laws employed 'randomly' on brown people. Besides jobs, California offers open minds and much a much friendlier atmosphere for brown people.

Anecdotally, as one of the "brown people" that is okay with Arizona, I've never been hit by "your papers, please".

Ironically, I feel that California offers much less in terms of "open minds" - I am strongly liberal on social matters and advocated for homosexual marriage rights in AZ. Here I feel legitimately scared to mention that I have conservative views on business affairs without fear of potentially losing a job given how quickly people are to lambaste anyone they can for any opinion that doesn't conform to the acceptable limits of non-conformity.

I'm just keeping my head down and doing my job until I can go back to a more sensible location.

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