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After the end of the startup era

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Re: After the end of the startup era

#51
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree the future is built on small businesses. But to have the most impact on the environment we could all just stop eating so much meat.

> we could all just stop eating so much meat. Sounds promising. Maybe you can build a small or medium sized organization around trying to make that happen.

Impossible Foods is a startup working on this mission. They have a really tasty product too.

http://impossiblefoods.com/about/

Re: After the end of the startup era

#52
post #44

The world does not need more Mark Zuckerbergs, it needs millions of small and mid-size businesses working on the build out of low carbon energy sources. Converting the world electricity supply to run off renewable sources will require tens of trillions of dollars of investment over a period of decades. It's not a small opportunity, but unlike the app economy, it's not a winner take all market. This is mostly a good t…

I agree the future is built on small businesses. But to have the most impact on the environment we could all just stop eating so much meat.

Heck, even replacing beef by chicken or farmed fish is a lot less resource intensive.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#53

The world does not need more Mark Zuckerbergs, it needs millions of small and mid-size businesses working on the build out of low carbon energy sources. Converting the world electricity supply to run off renewable sources will require tens of trillions of dollars of investment over a period of decades. It's not a small opportunity, but unlike the app economy, it's not a winner take all market. This is mostly a good t…

Why do you not think the world needs SMBs over larger corporations with more resources? Are there any economic study or more academic writings on this topic. I'd be curious.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#54
I try to be patient with Techcrunch, but seriously, phrases like this make me see red:

> The market capitalization of Bitcoin vastly exceeds that of any Bitcoin-based startup. The same is true for Ethereum.

The market cap of the US dollar exceeds that of any financial institution. What's the fucking point?

Re: After the end of the startup era

#55

So the premise is that the startup era is ending: > ...because we’ve all lived through back-to-back massive worldwide hardware revolutions — the growth of the Internet, and the adoption of smartphones — we erroneously think another one is around the corner, and once again, a few kids in a garage can write a little software to take advantage of it. [...] But there is no such revolution en route... Then it says: > It i…

As I recall it, the next wave usually doesn't conform with what "it is widely accepted" it will consist of.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we could all just stop eating so much meat. Sounds promising. Maybe you can build a small or medium sized organization around trying to make that happen.

Impossible Foods is a startup working on this mission. They have a really tasty product too. http://impossiblefoods.com/about/

But it’s not meat, so I won’t eat it. I need to eat 4000 calories a day and a lot of that needs to come from meat.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#57
post #53

The world does not need more Mark Zuckerbergs, it needs millions of small and mid-size businesses working on the build out of low carbon energy sources. Converting the world electricity supply to run off renewable sources will require tens of trillions of dollars of investment over a period of decades. It's not a small opportunity, but unlike the app economy, it's not a winner take all market. This is mostly a good t…

Why do you not think the world needs SMBs over larger corporations with more resources? Are there any economic study or more academic writings on this topic. I'd be curious.

For one it would be a major factor in reducing income inequality. Large companies are designed to funnel profits to relatively few people.

I also strongly believe we would see more innovation and generally a more resilient economy.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#58

The world does not need more Mark Zuckerbergs, it needs millions of small and mid-size businesses working on the build out of low carbon energy sources. Converting the world electricity supply to run off renewable sources will require tens of trillions of dollars of investment over a period of decades. It's not a small opportunity, but unlike the app economy, it's not a winner take all market. This is mostly a good t…

The current trend is to transition ~all electricity generation to renewable because they cost less. Part of this is because interest rates are so low, but cars also seem headed in that direction. (2.5% of new car sales worldwide, dropping prices and rapidly growing sales.)

So, I don't know if we actually need to change much at this point.

EX: Per person US emissions are down ~18% since 2000. We are on tack to hit 50% drop reasonably quickly.

Re: After the end of the startup era

#60

So the premise is that the startup era is ending: > ...because we’ve all lived through back-to-back massive worldwide hardware revolutions — the growth of the Internet, and the adoption of smartphones — we erroneously think another one is around the corner, and once again, a few kids in a garage can write a little software to take advantage of it. [...] But there is no such revolution en route... Then it says: > It i…

I've been thinking for the past year or two that we are hitting a bit of an inflection point. Previously, it seems the hardware developments moved somewhat linearly PC -> internet -> mobile but now it seems like there is all of a sudden significant overlap. Multiple new disruptive hardware technologies with significant, potential consumer applications are emerging simultaneously. I might be just drawing arbitrary lin…

Your problem may be that you're using hindsight to see the PC, internet and mobile eras and using somewhat irrational exuberance to view the current "disruptions." It's a pretty good bet that not all of them will pan out or have the kind of pervasive impact on society that you're predicting and that 20 years from now, again with hindsight, you'll see the 1 landscape-altering technology that defined the current era and fits into your linear model.

For instance, people have been predicting that VR will be the next big thing for years now. I remember a birthday party more than 30 years ago at an arcade with an expensive VR setup that, while far more limited than today's applications, was still an awkward piece of headgear that's more of a novelty than a potentially-ubiquitous change to society. It's still possible that we hit some sort of inflection point where technology improves to the point where AR/VR becomes unobtrusive enough that it can become ubiquitous, but that's by no means a certainty.

Similarly, I think the jury is still out on IoT, drones, 3D printers and cryptocurrencies/blockchains. If I had to place a bet, I'd say that when we look back on this time period, we'll be talking about machine learning and AI defining this era. The rest of the "current hotness" technologies I could easily see not getting that big.

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