After the end of the startup era
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After the end of the startup era
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Re: After the end of the startup era
#2So the premise is that the startup era is ending:
> ...because we’ve all lived through back-to-back massive worldwide hardware revolutions — the growth of the Internet, and the adoption of smartphones — we erroneously think another one is around the corner, and once again, a few kids in a garage can write a little software to take advantage of it. [...] But there is no such revolution en route...
Then it says:
> It is widely accepted that the next wave of important technologies consists of AI, drones, AR/VR, cryptocurrencies, self-driving cars, and the “Internet of Things.” These technologies are, collectively, hugely important and consequential — but they are not remotely as accessible to startup disruption as the web and smartphones were.
But a real counter to the premise is actually presented:
> (However, in fairness, software and services built atop newly emerging hardware are likely an exception to the larger rule here; startups in those niches have far better odds than most others.)
So once again, 'a few kides in a garage can write a little software to take advantage of it.' They start as niches, but we can't say what their potential is without discovery and development.
Re: After the end of the startup era
#3This isn't to say that you can't still build a successful startup, but it is saying that you probably won't build the next Uber/Airbnb. The difference is a few zeros but you'd still be wealthy either way.
Re: After the end of the startup era
#4NYC-based angel investor Jerry Neumann calls this the "deployment age" and has a very nice, and somewhat prescient, write-up about it:
Re: After the end of the startup era
#5So the premise is that the startup era is ending: > ...because we’ve all lived through back-to-back massive worldwide hardware revolutions — the growth of the Internet, and the adoption of smartphones — we erroneously think another one is around the corner, and once again, a few kids in a garage can write a little software to take advantage of it. [...] But there is no such revolution en route... Then it says: > It i…
Well, the argument that 1995 through 2015 was a cycle completely different from whatever the next one will be, is not without merit.
I mean, it is easy to forget, but many, many things had to come together at one time in order for this to pop off like it did:
* high speed internet
* widespread consumer demand for high speed internet and services
* multi-core, low-power hardware that gave us smartphones and cheapish "device" pcs like tivo/roku/etc.
* widespread cellular and wifi networks
* miniturization and improvement of many types of sensors
* widespread data collection of all types
* massive investments and growth in consumer GPU devices, which underwrote the ML boom
and I'm probably missing some things, but you get the idea.
All of these things had to come together at the same time to give us the boom that we just went through, and it gave us rise to the likes of Google, Facebook, and so on.
This is very unlikely to repeat itself. Those who grew up in the late 90s, early 2000s may not really notice, but the difference between 1995 and 2010 is astronomical.
This is not to say that we're about to crash, or that there won't be another boom in short order, just that it will likely follow a very different pattern than the previous one. The period of 1995-2010/2015 was really a very unique confluence of events, historically speaking, and over what is really a very, very short time frame. Whereas the current boom is built around leveraging the smartphone and widespread internt access, the next will not be, as it will already be filled out by competitors.
Re: After the end of the startup era
#6This just sounds like unwarranted negativity to me. There will always be innovation.
Re: After the end of the startup era
#7I'm pretty heavily involved in the Ethereum ecosystem, and it's a great place for startups.
Re: After the end of the startup era
#8> It is widely accepted that the next wave of important technologies consists of AI, drones, AR/VR, cryptocurrencies, self-driving cars, and the "Internet of Things."
While I agree with a lot of this analysis, the fact that the author seems not to understand the difference between cryptocurrency and blockchain doesn't exactly signal credibility in this domain.
Re: After the end of the startup era
#9Not every startup needs to become the next Amazon or the next Uber. Startups will still be around, some will still be successful, but yeah, maybe they won't turn into mastodonte that easily.
Re: After the end of the startup era
#10So the premise is that the startup era is ending: > ...because we’ve all lived through back-to-back massive worldwide hardware revolutions — the growth of the Internet, and the adoption of smartphones — we erroneously think another one is around the corner, and once again, a few kids in a garage can write a little software to take advantage of it. [...] But there is no such revolution en route... Then it says: > It i…
I've been thinking for the past year or two that we are hitting a bit of an inflection point. Previously, it seems the hardware developments moved somewhat linearly PC -> internet -> mobile but now it seems like there is all of a sudden significant overlap. Multiple new disruptive hardware technologies with significant, potential consumer applications are emerging simultaneously.
I might be just drawing arbitrary lines. "Mobile" depended on a number of technologies to happen. Possibly, looking back, this large number of simultaneous technologies will be described by one overarching technology category.