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Just own the damn robots

thereformedbroker.com

301–310 of 356 posts

Re: Just own the damn robots

#301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you go down the history, most wealth was stolen from people violently and from then on anybody born into these aristocratic families would continue benefiting from the wealth. A lot of new wealth has been created by people born into poor / middle class families in last 1-2 centuries for sure, especially 20th century. But there are still families today that are wealthy and their wealth have been with them for 400-5…

Right. "Probably", "maybe". I don't think it's society's responsibility to look back further than the formation of that society. For the US, I think you can safely use 1776 as a starting point. The US formed itself with the express purpose of creating equality for the original settlers. If someone is violating those principles, society should punish accordingly. If not, society is not "rewarding wealth". They are all…

Prior to industrialization, "pull your own bootstraps" fortunes were extremely rare, and largely a matter of accidentally being in the right place at the right time. Most wealthy folks got there from skimming off their human herd by force or threat of force and by bribing the most docile and cooperative by giving them some of their own production back.

After industrialization, a lot of people were able to leverage first-mover advantages and unrealized frontier opportunities into vast fortunes. But even then, having one extra dollar from daddy in 1790 meant having many, many more to give your own kids by 1820, even if you had 12 of them. That extra dollar might have meant you carried a full feedbag and got there a day before the guy who had to stop to let his horse forage, and getting there first was worth thousands.

Now, daddy's dollars might allow you to start from second place, and grow faster than the first-mover, who might be trying to bootstrap. Or you could do the same with investor money, but with corresponding loss of equity. If mommy or daddy fund you, you probably get to keep more of your own company.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not everyone lives in an area where a 30y mortgage is cheaper than rent. Even those that claim to may not have the math right (not accounting for maintenance, taxes, increases in utilities). I live in the midwest, where housing is supposed to be cheap, and the renting v. buying equation heavily favors renting when factoring in commute times. Since I'm a working professional, I'm limited to living in "working professi…

Those that find rent cheaper than a 30y mortgage also may not have all the math right. They may be looking at instantaneous rent prices, not accounting for rental increases over 30 years (while the mortgage will remain relatively flatlined, modulo ups and downs in interest). When I started my mortgage in 2010, it was a bit more expensive than renting in my area. Not so any more. Comparable places now rent for hundred…

In 5 years, my rent has gone from $1250/mo to $1380/mo. So 2% pa increase, there-about. But this past lease I received a free month of rent, so in reality, my rent has increased like $15/mo over five years. The complex is still pretty empty, so I'll probably get another similar deal this year.

Obviously this varies per market, but rents do not have to match housing prices in areas. Most people in the US are adverse to renting, so hot housing markets tend to push renters to buy "while they can still afford it," which seems to seriously depress the rental market. The bulk of my rent increases came in 2014 & 2015, after that, it stabilized, then went down (while housing went up-up-up).

Property taxes have exploded in my area though. Looking at Zillow, the taxes on a now $330k house is ~$6000/yr where it was more typically low ~4000s in 2012. So a solid 10%pa growth. (And $6000+ local taxes is probably still less than the standard deduction for a couple, so there's no tax benefits here). So, while your mortgage may have stayed constant, your monthly tax bill increased by ~$180.

Factoring in property taxes, HOAs, maintenance, improvements, utility costs, etc, it looks so hard to come out ahead buying. Really, the big factor is if you need more than 1200sq feet, then its cost effective to buy, since big apartments are rare and expensive. But if you can live comfortably with 1200sq ft, renting is a no-brainer, financially.

But the crux of my calculus depends on area, if I didn't need to live in this specific area to be <20m from work, then I could spend drastically less on housing. But as it stands, the good jobs are all concentrated in a few very expensive areas. But lucky for me, expensive housing doesn't translated to similarly expensive rent. So a 100% increase in housing prices translates to a 20-30% increase in rent prices.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#303

This is going to be a rant, so apologies. This is a pretty crappy read. Lacks real data and also unwillingness to look outside of the tech bubble, seriously what serious AI work is apple or Netflix doing? Its as if the author started with the conclusion and wrote up whole thing to justify it. For large parts most of the tech people at Google/FB are involved in getting more people click and buys ads. And Amazon are in…

So Trump is a harbinger of technocommunism?

Re: Just own the damn robots

#304
post #238

This “theory” for equities growth is a joke. There is a very simple reason for it and plenty of non-tech baskets show the same 2 yr (or longer) pattern. Simply put, cash and cash equivalents are generating historically low returns. So you put your money in equity. (And if you are a retiree you put it in stocks with dividends. Look at the growth in dividend-generating stocks like energy, mining and metals and it makes…

> we have a year or two left in the current [cycle] Are you saying that we have a year or two until we see a pick up in productivity (driving real growth and GDP), which will shift investment out of equities and into? Cash and cash equivalents? Or are you saying that we have a year or two until we see a recession (decline in GNP), triggered by a flight from the equity markets?

I'm making a (perhaps reflexive) statement about economic cycles, that they are effectively defined as a period of growth followed by a shock. Without growth, there is no shock. Our current cycle has been characterized by very low growth. It is also much longer than typical, but I think this simply follows from the fact that we haven't had a lot of growth. Growth seems to be picking up, though, and I think over the entire period of the cycle will soon be "enough" to trigger the next cycle.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#305
Definitely an interesting read, if a bit pessimistic, nihilistic, and a bit Marxist (seize the means of production!). But ultimately the article offers no solutions and the author comes off to me as a doomsayer and luddite (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite). If the author really fears the current system as described, maybe he should return to the old system: become a subsistence farmer and work till you die.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's depressing how many people aren't interested in understanding how and why communism failed, and what we can learn from that. The conclusion is always just "capitalism and communism are the only two systems that exist; communism didn't work; therefore capitalism is the best and only way to run things."

I think it's helpful to look at it in terms of control vs. freedom. Communism means more state control of people, capitalism means less. In these terms, what if capitalism is simply the natural outcome of x amount of freedom? Therefore, shifting away from capitalism means shifting toward either anarchy or communism (even if both of those options are far away in absolute distances). This makes it hard to discuss thing…

Communism means more state control of people

I greatly enjoyed your analysis and appreciate the time you spent making it, but I reject this premise as a matter of theory. The intent of communism was to create a distributed system of governance in which workers would delegate some of their number as administrators, who were subject to recall at any time and who were expected to both legislate and administrate. These conditions obtained in the USSR for a short time after the 1917 revolutions but fell apart under two pressures: the Russian civil war, in which dispossessed aristocrats and armies from other countries teamed up to attack the new worker's state, necessitating total mobilization of the economy for war; and following Lenin's death, Stalin's seizure of power and exile of Trotsky. Stalin, as we know, went on to purge political enemies left and right, and then implement an appallingly cynical pact with Hitler to carve up Poland. (In contrast, Trotsky and Lenin had hoped to systematize the Russian revolution and then support similar uprisings in Germany, France, and other industrial powers of the time.)

Clearly there was something structurally wrong about the way the Russians implemented their scheme of governance that made it vulnerable to authoritarian takeover. I'm not an expert, but my personal take is that in both Russia and to some extent in China, the combination of a primarily agrarian economy and the lack of a democratic or capitalistic tradition made authoritarian subversion far more likely; Marx was correct about the necessity of a primarily industrialized society as a necessary precondition for communism, and he would have pointed to the capital-intensive nature of modern agribusiness in the US as the inevitable consequence of same. You might be surprised o learn that prior to his exily Trotsky had been engaged in a battle of ideas with Stalin where Trotsky was arguing for the maintenance of markets in grain and agricultural equipment because he considered market mechanisms superior to central planning and much more likely to reflect the goals of the people doing the work. Had his advice been heeded, at least one disastrous famine might have been avoided.

Anyway, if you are wanting to move away from capitalism and not toward anarchy

But anarchy is the end goal of communism - the withering away fo the state, and its replacement by voluntary mutualism, abundance through industrial production, and an equitable distribution of time with the goal of minimizing work and maximizing freedom. This is anarchy in the definitional sense of 'without rulers' as opposed to the propagandistic sense of general mayhem and disorder. The internet qua self-routing persistent network was/is anarchic in many respects; sadly I don't have a general theory of distribution v. resource concentration that allows for concentrations of resources for industrial production without concentrations of authority or its proxies - yet.

Apologies if this seems nitpicky. but to begin from the premise that communism is about increasing state control without acknowledging the explicit aim (in the Communist Manifesto, no less) of deconstructing state power undermines your whole argument, notwithstanding your many correct observations.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#307
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that "Value to society" != "Value to the economy". But the value to the economy is what determines your wages in large part.

Yep, my answer was specifically against what you say : >>> what determines your wages in large part. The wages should not be that important anymore. That would prevent capital from being predatory. How we achieve that, I dunno, universal income ? maybe... maybe not. But IMHO, if we continue to think wages == beginning of everything, it certainly won't change.

[deleted]

Re: Just own the damn robots

#308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Energy is the currency of the future. - CEO Nwabudike Morgan, "The Centauri Monopoly"

That game was incredibly prescient. I was going to link to its page on Paean to SMAC but it turns out that quote is from "Global Energy Theory", a tech that didn't make it into the final game (but had data set up for it). So there's no write-up about it. Instead, I'll link to the Paean's "First Time Here?" page: https://paeantosmac.wordpress.com/first-time-here/

"No check, no tech." is something I use often.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#309
post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who comes from a soviet block country, I wanted to thank you. You described it pretty good on the meta level. I may come back and copy it in future ;) It's far more then the mysterious criticism above deserved as an answer and the "criticism" of this comment goes the same way. There is a certain fear in left Utopism from the realization of what you've described. That fear is being drowned in endless deriva…

Thank you for sharing that. I wish more people like yourself, who have first-hand experience, would speak out. As you noted, the rhetorical techniques they use are not in good faith. We need more actual witnesses to testify against it, because such personal testimony is less susceptible to the deceptive, distracting non-arguments they use. > To me, it's a wasted effort. This energy all those bright young people inves…

As you noted, the rhetorical techniques they use are not in good faith.

Wow, project much? I don't see that argument made in his comments, nor is it evidenced in the comments of others. Considering that I drew attention to the authoritarian pitfalls of communism and their destruction of 'life, liberty and dignity' before you joined the thread, your complaints about systematic erasure are baseless. Perhaps you didn't bother reading the comments you were replying to; I hope not, since the alternative possibility is that you were engaged in deliberate mischaracterization.

Re: Just own the damn robots

#310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a fallacious distinction. That's not what each one means.

By "means" I mean "necessarily results in," not "is defined as." If after my clarifying that you still disagree, please explain, otherwise what's the point of saying so?

Oh, if you're going to redefine words after the fact to reshape your argument, further conversation is a waste of time. And you had the nerve to accuse others of not arguing in good faith?!
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