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Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

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Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#41

Post by akeck »

scarface74 wrote: post #40
jpalomaki wrote: post #24

Especially Google and Facebook area extremely well positioned to know what is happening. They have a market research machinery never seen in history. If there's a new trendy thing catching up, they can see it coming and they know exactly who is interested. As long as governments don't intervene, they are in quite strong position to just acquire threats (or develop something similar). Apple has piles of cash, but I th…

Google hasn't in it's entire history shown an ability to make money on anything besides advertising. What happens when everyone has ad blockers, they do most of their searches through mobile and Facebook eats up more advertising revenue because they can do better targeting than Google since they know more about their users? Facebook -- Facebook is already seen as a place for old people. Once your grandmother is on FB…

I asked a tween relative whether they or anyone they know uses FB. They answered, "No one." They said they all use Instagram, though. So the current tween generation is still on an FB platform, just not FB itself.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#42

Post by simonh »

jpalomaki wrote: post #24

Especially Google and Facebook area extremely well positioned to know what is happening. They have a market research machinery never seen in history. If there's a new trendy thing catching up, they can see it coming and they know exactly who is interested. As long as governments don't intervene, they are in quite strong position to just acquire threats (or develop something similar). Apple has piles of cash, but I th…

>Apple has piles of cash, but I think their business is kind of fragile. The valuation is based on being able to create products which sell for very high premium. I don't see them going away, but they might dropped from their top position.

I’m a fan of Galloway, his YouTube stuff for L2 is great, but Amazon is beating Apple because of the Echo? Apple is now the number one watch company by revenue in the world.

Apple have been selling premium computers for 39 years. The Desktop OS market is impossible to break into. The Mac and DOS/Windows ecosystems have owned it since the 80s. Chrome is making headway, but only in a small niche.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#43

Post by ci5er »

oblio wrote: post #30
mholmes680 wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you on Netflix. 5th horsemen candidates on my short list: Microsoft and SoftBank. Tesla if they can stop burning money and cut out the hype? Verizon as a long stretch.

Microsoft was founded in 1975, 42 years ago. People underrate them, but I'd say they're quite resilient. And now they're the #2 player in the cloud segment, so they should cover for their Windows cash cow just fine :)

Is Windows an ex-cash-cow?

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#44

Post by rockostrich »

akeck wrote: post #41
scarface74 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google hasn't in it's entire history shown an ability to make money on anything besides advertising. What happens when everyone has ad blockers, they do most of their searches through mobile and Facebook eats up more advertising revenue because they can do better targeting than Google since they know more about their users? Facebook -- Facebook is already seen as a place for old people. Once your grandmother is on FB…

I asked a tween relative whether they or anyone they know uses FB. They answered, "No one." They said they all use Instagram, though. So the current tween generation is still on an FB platform, just not FB itself.

I don't see Facebook going away. It's such a good tool for organizing groups of friends and getting back in touch with someone you haven't seen in awhile. Tweens aren't using it because they don't need those features, they just want to share things. Once they start to grow up and move away from their hometowns, I think they would start using Facebook unless another platform exists in the same space (which as far as I know doesn't).

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#45

Post by oblio »

ci5er wrote: post #43
oblio wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Microsoft was founded in 1975, 42 years ago. People underrate them, but I'd say they're quite resilient. And now they're the #2 player in the cloud segment, so they should cover for their Windows cash cow just fine :)

Is Windows an ex-cash-cow?

I edited that part and now removed it since I was partly joking.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#46

Post by jsgo »

zck wrote: post #28
AJ007 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure how long they get to keep their back catalog. Has anything been licensed indefinitely? Their business is certainly going to only continue to increase in competitiveness for the foreseeable future. My primary concern, from Netflix’s view, would be Amazon being comfortable buying video content at a loss forever.

> I’m not sure how long they get to keep their back catalog. Has anything been licensed indefinitely? At a minimum, they have their original series^1. I would assume that, as part of paying for the various shows to be created, Netflix has rights forever. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_original_programs_dist...

That's a fair point, but what happens if the various big studios decide to pull their content like Disney has stated they will and create their own Netflix? They just launched Movies Anywhere, so it seems like they're willing to partner up if they need to protect their businesses.

And at that point, Netflix would be indie content and a few real good Netflix shows. Don't know if people would shell out $10 per month essentially for the Netflix shows unless they can churn out high quality ones quicker.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#48

Post by luckydude »

darkhorn wrote: post #38

Facebook is just social networking web site. People can get bored and use some other web site. Amazon is only a shopping web site and a hosting company. There are popular companis like Amazon, such as AliBaba and DigitalOcean. There is nothing special about Amazon. Google is a search engine, smart phone OS, mail, maps, video service, web browser. Looks like Google has way more chanse than Facebook and Amazon.

I think you underestimate the value of all the product reviews on Amazon. While I doubt that I've been influenced by ads on Google, I'm influenced all the time by the reviews on Amazon. Yeah, Amazon needs to do better about the fake reviews (and they are working on it, it's gotten better).

But there is a huge amount of value tied up in those reviews. I'd argue that it creates such a network effect that starting up a competitor would be really hard. Possible but Amazon would have to stumble.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#49

Post by xbmcuser »

akeck wrote: post #41
scarface74 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google hasn't in it's entire history shown an ability to make money on anything besides advertising. What happens when everyone has ad blockers, they do most of their searches through mobile and Facebook eats up more advertising revenue because they can do better targeting than Google since they know more about their users? Facebook -- Facebook is already seen as a place for old people. Once your grandmother is on FB…

I asked a tween relative whether they or anyone they know uses FB. They answered, "No one." They said they all use Instagram, though. So the current tween generation is still on an FB platform, just not FB itself.

One of the reasons I feel the governments should look into Facebook acquiring future competitors that it feels will be competitors. In the last few years it has either acquired or copied growing social apps that it see will be a future threat.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#50

Post by LorenzoLlamas »

Rats. I was hoping they would all go away within 5 years. Thought maybe the extra 0 was a typo. Disappointed. How can serious people still be on Facebook more than five years from now? This is demoralizing enough for me to subscribe to USA Today, the paper version, because it's an improvement. Pie charts and all.
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