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Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

marketwatch.com

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Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#31

Post by heartbreak »

tristanj wrote: post #13
cobookman wrote: post #6

Apple has enough cash on hand that they'll be able to make 0 profit for the next 50 years and still be around.

Only if they stop giving it back to their shareholders. Since they started their buyback program in 2012 Apple has 'returned' over $222 billion to shareholders [0]. Presently they are issuing debt to finance the buybacks & dividends. If they are not careful they may end up like IBM. [0] https://www.macrumors.com/2017/09/05/apple-5b-bond-sale-fund...

That debt is borrowed against offshore holdings that they plan to repatriate when the tax conditions are more favorable.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#32

Post by Retric »

polskibus wrote: post #27

I find it interesting that many similar analyses very often omit Microsoft. Yet it also has astonishing breadth of offering along with very deep vertical integration that is a characteristic of modern monopolies 2.0.

Microsoft can clearly become another IBM and survive long term. But, it's less clear if they can stay a major 'tech' company as they have a very poor record outside of OS/Office /Enterprise applications.

AKA web/phone/tables/console gaming/peripherals/etc are effectively break even in terms of revenue.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#33

Post by godzillabrennus »

jpalomaki wrote: post #24

Especially Google and Facebook area extremely well positioned to know what is happening. They have a market research machinery never seen in history. If there's a new trendy thing catching up, they can see it coming and they know exactly who is interested. As long as governments don't intervene, they are in quite strong position to just acquire threats (or develop something similar). Apple has piles of cash, but I th…

The legislative backlash will begin under this administration.

You can already find right wing sites advocating for it.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#35

Post by twblalock »

samsonradu wrote: post #4

Disagree with the author’s point of view on Netflix. I think it is quite a fragile business, with no monopoly whatsoever. I’m not much of a movie/series consumer though so might be biased about it.

I think the streaming movie/TV market is the same as any other commoditized market -- the businesses that survive need to find a way to differentiate themselves or offer something nobody else does.

I think the original content is what will keep Netflix alive in the long run. There are a lot of other places to see movies and TV shows, but you can only see Netflix original content on Netflix (unless you pirate it).

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#36

Post by ocdtrekkie »

godzillabrennus wrote: post #33
jpalomaki wrote: post #24

Especially Google and Facebook area extremely well positioned to know what is happening. They have a market research machinery never seen in history. If there's a new trendy thing catching up, they can see it coming and they know exactly who is interested. As long as governments don't intervene, they are in quite strong position to just acquire threats (or develop something similar). Apple has piles of cash, but I th…

The legislative backlash will begin under this administration. You can already find right wing sites advocating for it.

And while the US has been slow to act, other countries are already massively stepping up antitrust and privacy enforcement. While most of these big tech cos are based here in the US, international regulation has a massive effect on the bottom line.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#38

Post by darkhorn »

Facebook is just social networking web site. People can get bored and use some other web site.

Amazon is only a shopping web site and a hosting company. There are popular companis like Amazon, such as AliBaba and DigitalOcean. There is nothing special about Amazon.

Google is a search engine, smart phone OS, mail, maps, video service, web browser. Looks like Google has way more chanse than Facebook and Amazon.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#39

Post by jkw »

breitling wrote: post #37

Why isn't Microsoft mentioned in the same sentence as these four? Have people already written them off?

Microsoft was mentioned in the article as the Fifth Horsemen. Not part of the original because it's more of a B2B company now.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#40

Post by scarface74 »

jpalomaki wrote: post #24

Especially Google and Facebook area extremely well positioned to know what is happening. They have a market research machinery never seen in history. If there's a new trendy thing catching up, they can see it coming and they know exactly who is interested. As long as governments don't intervene, they are in quite strong position to just acquire threats (or develop something similar). Apple has piles of cash, but I th…

Google hasn't in it's entire history shown an ability to make money on anything besides advertising. What happens when everyone has ad blockers, they do most of their searches through mobile and Facebook eats up more advertising revenue because they can do better targeting than Google since they know more about their users?

Facebook -- Facebook is already seen as a place for old people. Once your grandmother is on FB, teens don't want to use it. A whole generation of people are growing up using everything but FB.

Apple -I don't see it dying but I do see it shrinking.

Amazon- because of network affects, the cost of building warehouses, etc. It's will be hard for someone to kill Amazon.

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