Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

marketwatch.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

1–10 of 51 posts

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#2

Post by xxxdarrenxxx »

I would think google can last because they do a lot of infrastructure as well. These are not things that stand or fall by current (marketing) trends. At least not directly.

Amazon is atm heavily moving towards infrastructure based business as well like AWS or drone delivery services.

Apple has the money I feel like to brute force themselves into markets, but as a brand it's already changing away from the "Steve Jobs factor". This can go both ways.

Facebook for me is the most likely. While no social media before it has ever been as big or influential, these things do heavily fall or stand by culture. IRC to MSN Messenger to Forums and such have faded away considerably. To not expect similar would be to argue against human nature's tendency to evolve and move on. Especially the social stuff.

Again they as well have been steering away to more "safer" markets for a while now, which seems wise. They equally posses resources to potentially force themselves into future fast growing markets that does not come from their own turf.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#5

Post by trts »

I was thinking about how cumbersome it would be to change phone platforms if I got tired of iPhone or Android, and then how much effort I wouldn't want to spend if my Amazon device controlled all the lights, TV, audio, and temperature in my house.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#7

Post by CodeSheikh »

The reason there never will be a "fifth" horseman is because these four giant fishes keep devouring the little ones (startup acquisition/acqui-hire). Just because things happened in past a certain way, that does not necessarily mean those events can always be used as a predictability model for future. Stock market is at all time time. Are we headed towards crash? Maybe not. Maybe this is the time where we are setting new standards. Yes, all these four have slowed down their momentum of innovation. But that innovation also goes hand-in-hand with general intelligence and thirst for innovation from the general public. I hope to see one them entering into consumer health monitoring and diagnostics, beyond heart BPM or steps counting. I will give them another decade before I give up on them. I hope the author made some good bucks towards the end. He raised a good debate.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#8

Post by larrik »

samsonradu wrote: post #4

Disagree with the author’s point of view on Netflix. I think it is quite a fragile business, with no monopoly whatsoever. I’m not much of a movie/series consumer though so might be biased about it.

I don't know, they have their own high quality content, and their TV back catalog is good. I would think they have a brighter future than many television companies, especially ones like HBO/Showtime and other special subscription companies.

That said, they have less of a safety net than the others, with no cable deals to fall back on (which are steadily eroding from underneath the others anyway). However, they seem to be very good at knowing how to run their business, so I wouldn't count them out unless some outside forces take effect.

Their name has been synonymous with streaming for a decade, which will keep them entrenched at least a while longer than they would otherwise deserve.

I think if they had a serious stumble, Amazon would just buy them anyway.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#9

Post by bhauer »

Aside from a few exceptions, I don't wish death on any big companies. I would nevertheless like to see each of the named company's dominance reduced substantially if only to see what the alternatives look like once afforded some breathing room. As much as network effects are an inevitable part of the human condition, I rail against the behavior as the very small market actor I am. In my day-to-day market activities, I regularly seek out less-dominant vendors and service providers.

Of the named companies, I am most comfortable with Amazon. Most interactions I have with Amazon yield a tangible service predicated on me being the customer. While some alternatives provide better browsing and discovery, there are few online shopping sites that provide the convenience and immediacy of Amazon.

Apple would presumably also treat me as the customer, but I don't like the design of their devices or software and there are good alternatives. As a non-customer, Apple's existence doesn't offend me, but I do find them tedious and the amount of media attention they capture can be exhausting.

Facebook and Google don't have business models that permit them to consistently treat me as the customer, so I do what I can to avoid their services. What services they do provide (for "free") are of low value to me. I can interact with friends on a wide array of communication media. I can search the Internet via other engines. I can send and receive email from my personal mail server.

Assuming their futures mimic their present—which is probably a bad assumption—of these four, the disappearance of Facebook, Google, and Apple would be of little or no consequence to my life.

Re: Amazon, Apple, Google and Facebook will all go away within 50 years, says author

#10

Post by romeoEtJoliet »

cobookman wrote: post #6

Apple has enough cash on hand that they'll be able to make 0 profit for the next 50 years and still be around.

It's true that Apple has mountains of cash, but in all likelihood, a failing Apple-sized tech giant would end up acquired by an adjacent company (see Motorola or Yahoo or Sun Microsystems ) before they ran out of money.
Post reply on HN